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Monday, October 31, 2011

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Companies in Europe Are Pulling Back
The financial turmoil rattling governments and banks in Europe is further weighing on the already-sluggish outlook for business in the region.
Washington Times | Obama: U.S. growth key to global recovery
Setting the tone for his trip to the G-20 summit in France next week, President Obama said Friday the most important thing world leaders can do to boost the global economy is “to get the U.S. economy growing faster.”
CNN: Money | Bank of America may soften $5 debit card fee
Bank of America is considering softening its controversial policy of charging some customers for making purchases with their debit cards, according to a person familiar with the bank's plans.
WSJ | OECD Forecasts Weak Growth Until 2013
Advanced economies are looking at two years of weak growth and high unemployment and the outlook is likely to worsen unless Europe fails to rein in its sovereign-debt crisis, the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation said Monday, as it slashed next year's growth prediction for the U.S. and the euro zone.
CNN: Money | Home prices heading for triple-dip
The besieged housing market has even further to fall before home prices really hit rock bottom.
WSJ | Slow Recovery Feels Like Recession
Americans are two years into a recovery that doesn't feel much different to many of them from life during the most bruising recession in seven decades.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Politico | Wall Street reform law bogged down
President Barack Obama signed the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill into law 15 months ago, saying he was anxious to put new rules of the road in place for Wall Street.
Washington Times | GHEI: Europe accepts the inevitable
Bailout of big spenders in Greece ignores deeper continental crisis.
WSJ | What Business Wants From Washington
America works best when government creates a stable environment for competition.
Washington Times | EDITORIAL: Obama’s spooky economy
Consumer uncertainty casts a shadow over news of temporary growth.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Daily Capitalist | Q3 GDP Is A Head Fake
There are several things to understand about gross domestic product before analyzing the numbers:
Calculated Risk | Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 985 Institutions
The OCC finally released some information on its actions since September 23rd. This week, also, the FDIC released its actions through September. These releases contributed to many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List.
Cato@Institute | Congress Just Can’t Stop Trying to Micromanage the Housing Market, Part 5,672
It seems like death and taxes are not the only constants in life, you can add the seemingly endless attempts of Congress to micromanage the housing market.
Independent Institution | The Inversion of America’s Dominant Ideology
Obama is not the brightest light, yet he understands how to get elected, and in that quest he is pandering to the same personal irresponsibility and desire to prey on one’s fellows that have been the hallmarks American politics from the Progressive Era to the present.
Café Hayek | Drunk With Keynesian Prejudices
The central irony of financial crisis is that while it is caused by too much confidence, borrowing and lending, and spending it is only resolved by increases in confidence, borrowing and lending, and spending.
Econlog | Russ Roberts on Aggregate Demand
When an economy is not healthy, there is less exchange. There is less buying and selling of goods and services and labor. To describe that unhealthiness as less aggregate demand is just to put the problem into different words.
Café Hayek | Aggregate Demand–II
First, like ordinary demand, Aggregate Demand is not a quantity but a relation.
Calculated Risk | Recovery Measures
By request, here is an update to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments.

Reports                                                                                                                         
CRS | Economic Growth and the Unemployment Rate
A persistently high unemployment rate is of concern to Congress for a variety of reasons, including its negative consequences for the economic well-being of individuals and its impact on the federal budget.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Obama Orders FDA to Address Drug Shortages
The order will be Obama's latest move to bypass Congress. Proposals like those included in Monday's executive order have been pending in Congress for over eight months.
Politico | Time to end Obama's CLASS struggle
U.S. taxpayers received some good news recently. Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius announced that she was dumping Obamacare’s Community Living Assistance Services and Supports program, which was intended to provide government-run, long-term care insurance.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Japan Intervenes on Yen to Cap Sharp Rise
Currency Strength Seen to Be Dragging Down Economy; Move Designed to Help Export Sector.
Market Watch | Meet China’s new financial regulators
A major phase of China’s long-anticipated leadership turnover kicked off Saturday, with the appointment of three new chairmen at China’s financial regulatory agencies.
Market Watch | Dollar jumps after Japan intervenes to sell yen
U.S. rises across the board in wake of intervention; euro up on yen.
Fox Business | MF Global Suspended From Doing Business With NY Fed
The New York Fed suspended MF Global from conducting new business with the central bank on Monday and its shares were suspended, as the troubled brokerage nears a deal on its future.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Fed may hibernate until spring
Despite recent talk about another round of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve is expected this week to remain on the sidelines, a stance that may last into next spring, economists said.
Washington Times | SANDERS: The euro is dead! Long live the euro!
As “Europe” falls apart, it’s natural that each of its 27 members would be doing their own thing. For the moment - while a search goes on for a missing $1.4 trillion in euros - the euro has been rescued as a common currency for 17 European Union members and, hopefully, the whole Europe Project to unite a continent for peace and progress survives.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Greg Mankiw's Blog | More on a Nominal GDP Target
Christy Romer makes the case for a new framework for monetary policy. She is kind enough to remind us of this old paper that Bob Hall and I wrote on the topic.
Reason Foundation | Banks Win, You Lose on Federal Reserve Policy
Operation Twist will officially be one-month-old next week and the results could not be further from Fed projections.

Taxes

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
WSJ | California's New Green Tax
As the world retreats from cap and trade, Sacramento signs on.
Bloomberg | How Higher Taxes for a Few Lightens Load for All: Phil Keisling
On Jan. 1, 2012, almost every working American will be hit with the biggest tax increase of his or her lifetime. That’s when the Social Security payroll tax will revert to its pre-2009 rate of 6.2 percent, from 4.2 percent now.
Forbes | A Flat Tax Would Be Fine, A Consumption Tax True Perfection
For one, much as a flat tax would inspire lobbyists looking for deductions on what would be a simplified tax, so would the same occur with a consumption levy.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Chart of the Week: Taxing the Wealthy to Cover Future Deficits Won’t Work
Democrats on the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction last week floated a proposal that includes massive tax increases on wealthy Americans. While their plan would also include some cuts to entitlement programs, the tax-code changes make up a significant portion, according to press reports.
EconLog | The Missed Opportunity of the Payroll Tax Cut
I admit that I may be unusually clueless about my income.  I further admit that workers don't have to notice a tax cut to respond to the higher income it generates.  But I still have to insist that tax cuts are more likely to change behavior if they're widely noticed - and Obama's payroll tax cut doesn't qualify.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Benefits Run Out for Spain's Jobless
As Unemployment Hits 15-Year High, More Spaniards Struggle to Make Ends Meet, Adding to Pressure on Social Services

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
RCM | Yes, Regulation Does Keep Unemployment High
When regulations make hiring employees more expensive, companies won't hire as many of them. It's a simple truth. But it is an inconvenient one for many who work in politics.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Census Confronts Budget Ax
Washington politicians often battle over what economic statistics mean and what to do about them. Now, they are fighting about the statistics themselves.
Daily Finance | Banks Back Away from New Fees, Focus on Cost Cutting Instead
Still, the banks are looking for ways to make up for the revenue lost under new federal regulations enacted earlier this month, and to compensate for low interest rates.
WSJ | For Europe Bailout Fund, Next Stop Is Japan
The head of Europe's bailout fund, Klaus Regling, takes his tour of potential Asian investors to Japan next, after Beijing proved unwilling to open its checkbook until European leaders could offer more details about their plan to save the euro zone.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
RCM | The Supercommittee Isn't Making Super Cuts
Budget: Given all the hoopla, you'd think the deficit Supercommittee was hacking away at the size of government without mercy. In fact, even the $1.2 trillion in hoped-for cuts will do nothing to attack our long-term deficits.
National Journal | Gang of Six Members: Super Committee Can Still ‘Go Big’
Sens. Mark Warner, D-Va.  and Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., leaders of the bipartisan “Gang of Six,” on Monday continued to push a "go big" $4 trillion deficit reduction plan, instead of the $1.2 trillion the super committee has been tasked with cutting.
Telegraph | Why the latest eurozone bail-out is destined to fail within weeks
My sincere hope is that collective and decisive action by the eurozone's large member states will stabilize global markets, at least for a while, so allowing the global economy to catch its breath.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Atlantic: McArdle | The Incredible Shrinking Supercommittee
A couple of weeks ago, I had a conversation with a prominent--and not normally excessively optimistic--budget expert.  This person offered me two reasons to hope that the Supercommittee in charge of finding budget cuts would choose to go big rather than go home.
Heritage Foundation | Myths of Austerity Failures
Small wonder, then, why the economy didn’t quickly recover like it did after the downturn of 1920. Hoover followed the opposite path. Rather than cutting government to let the free market grow, he grew government, which shrank the free market and staved off recovery.

Reports                                                                                                                         
NBER | Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion
We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables and find that these responses generally vary over the cycle as well, in a pattern consistent with the varying impact on GDP.

Friday, October 28, 2011

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Economy in U.S. Surpasses Pre-Recession Level
The value of goods and services produced in the U.S. surpassed its pre-recession level after 15 quarters, taking three times longer than the average for 10 previous recoveries since World War II.
Source | Consumers spend more, save less in September
Consumers increased their spending in September much faster than their wages rose, dipping into their savings to pay for their purchases.
CNN: Money | Washington spars over government regulations
If new regulations were a significant drag, the consequences would show up in data that measure business profits, workforce trends and investment levels, the government contends.
WSJ | Consumer Spending Gains Outpace Income
Americans dug deeper into their savings last month to propel consumer spending amid weak wage gains.
Washington Times | Obama seeks authority to make Pacific trading pacts
Buoyed by success of recent free-trade deals.
WSJ | Recession Fears Recede as Economy Grows 2.5%
The economy grew 2.5% in the third quarter, a quick-enough pace to blunt fears that the U.S. is about to plunge into recession again but not fast enough to signal that the halting recovery is about to get on a roll.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
AEI | The Four Players Driving Innovation
Policymakers at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue want to get the American economy growing again. Growth can lower unemployment, and it can yield the revenues needed to fill federal coffers. The key to robust economic growth is innovation. So how do we get it?
Washington Post | MILLER: Unraveling red tape
Regulatory reform is key to unleashing economic growth.
Market Watch | TARP housing programs still need fix: watchdog
The housing support programs funded by the Troubled Asset Relief Program still are in need of improvements with just a year left for new mortgage modifications.
WSJ | The Resilient Economy
Left on its own to grow and innovate, the U.S. private economy is a remarkable engine of prosperity.
National Journal | Obama Calls for Global Cooperation to Fix Economy in Op-Ed
Obama touted the G20’s efforts two years ago to rescue the world economy but said progress hadn’t come fast enough. He called for action in three areas to spur economic growth: accelerating the U.S. economy's growth to lead the global recovery, resolving the crisis in Europe, and encouraging individual countries to confront their fiscal challenges to help keep global growth balanced.
AEI | Three Narratives About the Financial Crisis
The most important lesson we can learn from the financial crisis is what caused it.
WSJ | Everyone Bails Out Everyone
European deal has something for everyone, except the real problem.
RCM | Marx, Keynes and the Last Economic Mile
There is a mathematical problem running through the mainstream of economic thought, one that has been expressed in various forms since the time of Adam Smith. There is apparently a shortcoming to capitalism that springs forth from the very basic, elemental idea of profits.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Café Hayek | My challenge to Paul Krugman
The evidence for the Keynesian worldview is very mixed. Most economists come down in favor or against it because of their prior ideological beliefs. Krugman is a Keynesian because he wants bigger government.
WSJ: Real Time Economcis | The Red Flag in Today’s GDP Report
Economists are already wondering whether a plunge in consumer confidence will eventually translate into lower consumer spending.
Mercatus Center: Neighborhood Effects | Trapped by Government Privilege
The right to operate two New York City taxi cabs has just been sold for $1 million apiece.
WSJ: Real Time Economcis | Vital Signs: Capital Spending Hits Record
Companies’ capital-spending orders hit a record last month. Nondefense capital-goods orders excluding aircraft, which is a proxy for business spending on equipment and software, rose to $68.9 billion from $67.2 billion in August.
AEI: American | Tracking the same households over time shows significant income mobility
In the discussions on income inequality and wage stagnation, we frequently hear about the “top 1%” or the “top 10%” or the “bottom 99%” and the public has started to believe that those groups operate like closed private clubs that contain the exact same people or households every year.

Reports                                                                                                                         
Heritage Foundation | Heritage Foundation How Should Americans Think About International Organizations?
The Founders believed that nations should seek to work amicably toward common goals and in defense of mutual interests.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | With Stimulus Funds Gone, States Brace for Increased Medicaid Spending
Stimulus spending cushioned states from Medicaid expenditures in 2009 and 2010 -- making those two years the only period in the program’s history when state Medicaid spending did not rise. With stimulus funds gone, state spending on Medicaid is expected to increase by an average of 28.7 percent in the next fiscal year.
CNN: Money | For most seniors, a small Medicare rate hike
Premiums for office visits and outpatient hospital services will go up by $3.50 a month, the Obama administration announced Thursday.
National Journal | Seniors Get a Break On Medicare Part B Premiums
For most beneficiaries, premiums will be $99.90 a month in 2012, a $3.50 increase over the $96.40 paid this year by a majority of elderly and disabled beneficiaries.
Politico | Kaiser poll finds drop in support for health care reform law
Just 34 percent of those surveyed said they have a favorable view of the Affordable Care Act, the lowest ranking in Kaiser Family Foundation’s monthly Health Tracking Poll since the law passed in March 2010. By contrast, 51 percent said they have an unfavorable view.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
WSJ | Repeal Health Law? It Won't Be Easy
Every Republican presidential candidate has promised to repeal the Obama administration's health-care overhaul. But despite full-throated criticism, it's going to be hard for any of them to fulfill that pledge if elected.

Monetary

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Minyanville | Inflation, Jobs, and the Artificial Flow of Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve's policy to devalue the dollar in order to stimulate employment was backed by solid economic theory, and in theory it worked -- except for the part that didn't work.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Taxes Remain Stumbling Block For Deficit Panel
The rejection by Democratic and Republican members of the deficit-reduction supercommittee of each others' opening offers may mark the beginning, not the end, of an intensifying effort to determine whether taxes will be raised as part of a compromise, officials following the work of the panel said Thursday.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Washington Times | LAMBRO: Republicans tout tax reform
Lower, simpler levies are only way out of Obama recession.
Bloomberg | Want to Create Jobs? First Cut Capital-Gains Taxes: Amity Shlaes
Along with jobs, raising taxes on the rich is one of things the Wall Street protesters feel strongly about, as Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic governor of New York, is learning all too well.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Super Committee Proposal: Tax Hikes Should Be a Nonstarter
Few, if any, details had leaked—until today, when we learned that the Democrats are trying to break the logjam and “go large” by offering up a deficit reduction package approaching $3 trillion.
American: Enterprise Blog | The chained CPI is a stealth tax increase
Various news sources are reporting that Congressional Democrats on the deficit supercommittee have floated the idea of changing the measure of inflation used for most federal policies.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Whirlpool Plans Job Cuts, Lowers Forecast
Whirlpool said it plans to eliminate more than 5,000 positions, primarily in North America and Europe, representing a 10% work-force reduction in those regions.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Politico | Repatriation boosts job creation
It’s no secret that the U.S. economy is short on cash and shorter on consumer confidence. Sadly, in Washington’s constant search for answers, it has become its own worst enemy.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Fannie, Freddie Bailout Costs Revised Lower
A federal regulator on Thursday revised down the U.S. government's likely tab for bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as the mortgage-finance giants begin to repay more money to taxpayers.
National Journal | Boehner Team Rips Senate Dems’ Deficit Plan
House Speaker John Boehner’s economic staff on Thursday branded the Senate Democratic bid to reduce the national deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years “not a serious proposal.” The Ohio Republican's staff also said the Democrats' plan is marred by unrealistic defense cuts and politically and economically toxic tax increases.
WSJ | Next Act—The Plan Is Put to Test
The deal euro-zone leaders hammered out in the early hours of Thursday sparked a world-wide stock rally. But the market moves belied widespread caution about the accord among economists and analysts—and even some of the decision-makers in the debt crisis.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Washington Post | A Greek default in all but name
There’s an Orwellian quality to Europe’s latest financial rescue. Words lose their ordinary meaning. Greece, for example, has clearly defaulted, but no one says so.
WSJ | Four Reasons Keynesians Keep Getting It Wrong
Except for a few diehards who want still more government spending, and those who make the unverifiable claim that the economy would have collapsed without it, most now recognize that more than a trillion dollars of spending by the Bush and Obama administrations has left the economy in a slump and unemployment hovering above 9%.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Does ‘Austerity’ Work?
Remember the Great Depression of the 1920s? If not, that’s because it didn’t happen. The recession of the early ‘20s quickly ended after spending and taxes were cut dramatically. It provides a clear lesson in “austerity” that President Obama should heed.
Mercatus Center: Neighborhood Effects | House Promises not to Bailout State Pension Funds
Yesterday, the House took up a bill aimed at preventing union leaders from collecting pensions based on salaries that they earned working for a public sector union rather than the state. While the issue of pension fund abuse has provoked media outrage, this reform would do little to help the funds’ overall solvency.
American: Enterprise Blog | US-EU debt crises: The parallels are striking—and disheartening
The deal to save Greece from default, just brokered in Europe, requires investors (mostly banks) to write off about 50 percent of their loans to Greece.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | US. 10-year yields rise to 3-month high
Treasury prices fell on Thursday, pushing 10-year yields to their highest since early August, after Europe’s plan to deal with its sovereign-debt crisis relieved global investors and led them towards riskier assets.
CNN: Money | GDP report: Growth nearly doubles
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of U.S. economic health, grew at a 2.5% annual rate in the quarter after adjusting for inflation. That's up from the disappointing 1.3% growth in the second quarter and the anemic 0.4% pace in the first three months of the year.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
NY Post | How class warfare weakens America
Telling Americans they are stuck in their current station in life, that they are victims of circumstances beyond their control, and that government’s role is to help them cope with it -- well, that’s not who we are.
WSJ | The Mortgage Crisis: Some Inside Views
Emails show that risk managers at Freddie Mac warned about lower underwriting standards—in vain, and with lessons for today.
AEI: American | Macro vs. Growth
Why isn’t there a rebirth of American entrepreneurship, especially when starting a firm is easier than ever?
Washington Times | EDITORIAL: Out-of-control college tuition
Presidential fiat will only make earning a degree more expensive.
WSJ | Remedial Economics
The 'Occupy' folks learn the limits of wealth redistribution.
AEI | Housing Affordability: US Is the Envy of the Developed World
The United States as a whole is affordable with an average score of 3.0. As the nearby chart indicates, this places the U.S. at the head of the affordability class among seven ranked countries, with the other six ranging from moderately unaffordable to severely unaffordable.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Greg Mankiw's Blog | The Rich Get Poorer
Here is a fact that you might not have heard from the Occupy Wall Street crowd: The incomes at the top of the income distribution have fallen substantially over the past few years.
Political Calculations | The Real Story Behind "Rising" U.S. Income Inequality
Why is income inequality rising for U.S. families and households, but not for individual Americans?
AEI: American | 7 reasons why Obama is wrong on income inequality
No argument there. Looking forward, America will need a pro-growth tax system, smarter regulation and far better human capital. That way, incomes won’t just be more equal, they’ll be growing.
WSJ: Real Time Economics | Companies Less Certain, Spending More
U.S. businesses are unsure where the economy is headed, but that has not stopped them from going ahead with capital spending projects. The dichotomy echoes consumer behavior, which finds consumers feeling pessimistic but still shopping.
Café Hayek | I don’t understand aggregate demand
Does an increase in aggregate demand increase employment?

Reports                                                                                                                         
Cato Institute | How Much Ivory Does This Tower Need? What We Spend on, and Get from, Higher Education
Taxpayer support for postsecondary education has long been in decline, this narrative goes, and has forced schools to continually raise tuition to make up for the losses.

Heatlh Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Supreme Court Could Decide to Look at Health Care Law on Nov. 10
"The court decides during its closed-door conferences which cases it will consider in the coming months. If the justices decide during their Nov. 10 meeting to hear one or more health care cases, they could make the announcement that day or, more likely, in a written list of orders that is scheduled for release on Nov. 14,".

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Econlog | The Doctor Might See You Now: Here Comes Rationing
Craig Garthwaite finds that after the 1990s implementation of the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP)--a partnership between federal and state governments intended to increase insurance coverage for low-income Americans under the age of 19--more physicians participated in the program, but their total number of hours spent with patients declined as a result of shorter office visits.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
CNN: Money | Investors (and the Fed) are addicted to liquidity
Fed vice chair Janet Yellen, Fed governor Daniel Tarullo and NY Fed president William Dudley have all hinted in speeches recently that another so-called quantitative easing program, or QE3, could be possible.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | State Tax Revenue Up 10.8 Percent in Second Quarter
The gain marked the sixth straight quarter of growth for states’ revenue, though rates were not adjusted for inflation, according to The Wall Street Journal. The increase was the largest in six years.
National Journal | Camp Presents Overseas Tax Plan to Please Big Business
The top Republican tax writer in the House unveiled the first formal draft of an international taxation plan on Wednesday that would drop taxes for companies earning profits overseas, a move that has been widely criticized by Democrats as a handout to already rich companies.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Washington Times | MILLER: Super opportunity for job growth
Congressional sources say the bipartisan, bicameral group has been discussing cutting the corporate tax rate to 25 percent as part of its final recommendations.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
Washington Times | House panel OK’s bill to limit NLRB
Would negate board’s ruling on union votes.
CNN Money | Unemployment claims fall (a little)
About 402,000 people filed for their first week of unemployment claims in the week ended Oct. 22, the Labor Department said Thursday. And that's just the newcomers to the unemployment rolls.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Politico | Obama's anti-energy agenda kills jobs
Undaunted, the White House and some of its strongest allies are coming back for more — adamant that the jobs landscape and our economy would improve if only Congress would pass a national energy tax.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | EU agrees debt deal; 50% Greek debt haircut
European leaders announced a deal early Thursday in which private investors in Greek government debt will take a 50% writedown on the value of their holdings as part of a wide-ranging package of measures designed to stem the euro-zone debt crisis.
CNN Money | Debt committee: Why $1.2 trillion isn't enough
That's because under the most likely scenario, reducing deficits by $1.2 trillion won't stop the accumulated debt from growing faster than the economy.
NY Times | Democrats’ First Offer: Up to $3 Trillion for Debt
The proposal, which came after weeks of silence, has virtually no chance of winning approval from Republicans on the committee, who have repeatedly said they would not accept a package that included tax increases.
WSJ | Parties Trade Deficit Plans
GOP, Democrats Clash Over Taxes, but Offers Lay Groundwork for Further Talks.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Washington Post | Stuntmen of the supercommittee
And so, as the 12 stuntmen on the committee assembled for their hearing this week, it was to discuss something different: the relatively small slice of the budget known as “discretionary spending.”
Politico | Supercommittee should cut more
A wide-ranging plan that saves $3 trillion to $4 trillion is more likely to win bipartisan consensus on debt reduction for three reasons.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
NRO: The Corner | What Successful Fiscal Adjustments Look Like
The case studies highlighted in this book show that while successful fiscal adjustments tend to bring in more revenue ex-post than expected (by 1 percent of potential GDP), few were actually intended as revenue-based adjustments.
Atlantic: McArdle | EU Reaches Deal on Greek Debt
They make a deal, the market rejoices, and then everyone notices that they still aren't an optimal currency union, and they haven't done many of the things that would help ease those tensions, like deepening fiscal integration.
American: Enterprise Blog | Euro debt deal likely ‘too little too late’
One has to hope that these misgivings about the package prove to be misplaced. For if this package fails, the very survival of the Euro in its present form would be in question and Europe could experience its own Lehman moment.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Fox News | A look at economic developments around the globe
A look at economic developments and activity in major stock markets around the world Monday:
CNN: Money | The 53%: We are NOT Occupy Wall Street
They call themselves the 53%...as in the 53% of Americans who pay federal income taxes. And they are making their voices heard.
USA Today | Economists warn housing prices will lose more ground
U.S. home prices were largely flat in August from a month earlier and down almost 4% from a year ago, with more declines ahead, economists say.
Washington Times | Survey: Home prices up in half of major U.S. cities
Home prices rose in August in half of major cities measured by a private survey, a sign that prices are stabilizing in some hard-hit portions of the country.
CNN: Money | Why you should be worried about Europe
If Europe were to be shaken by a series of nations defaulting on their government debt, I am convinced that the continent would plunge into a severe recession.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
WSJ | How the Euro Zone Can Restore Confidence
Investors are looking for a home for trillions in idle Federal Reserve-generated dollars, and a little reform in Europe might attract them.
Washington Times | MILLER: Giving business a break
Repealing IRS 3 percent tax-withholding rule is a step in the right direction.
AEI: American | The Dismal New Science of Stagnationism
If the future is behind schedule, it may be because the world’s major financial institutions and venture capitalists have not been backing the right ideas.
WSJ | Natural Gas Can Put Americans Back to Work
The natural gas and oil industry already sustains 2.2 million jobs and can add 1.5 million new ones.
Minyanvilee | How European Contagion Could Bring Down the US Treasury Market
Someday, perhaps within a matter of months but more likely in a year or two, the US Treasury market will fall apart as certainly as Greece's did. Here's how that might happen.
Washington Times | LAMBRO: Obama’s housing horrors
Dropping loan requirements risks second market crash.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ: Real Time Economcis | Income Growth of Top 1% Over 30 Years Outpaced Rest of U.S.
The wealthiest Americans saw their income nearly triple in the three decades to 2007, substantially more than all other segments of the population, the Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday.
Atlantic: Megan McArdle | Why the Government is Not Going to Force Banks to Write Down Your Mortgage Principal
There is not going to be broad-based mortgage equity relief, because your neighbors do not want to pay $750 billion to relieve you of that burden. HARP isn't a panacea, but it will actually do some limited good, which is probably about all we can expect.
WSJ: Real Time Economcis | ‘Complexity’ Predicts Nations’ Future Growth
Economists at Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology have just released what they claim to be the crystal ball of economics: a model for predicting a nation’s future growth more accurately than any other techniques out there.
WSJ: Real Time Economcis | Confidence Falls Most Among High-Income Consumers
U.S. consumers unexpectedly caught a case of the economic willies in October. Their list of woes is growing from jobs to incomes to the stock market.
AEI: American | Paul Ryan declares war on Obama’s class-warfare campaign
In a high-voltage speech tomorrow at the Heritage Foundation, House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan will tear into President Barack Obama’s recent push to raise taxes on wealthier Americans—including entrepreneurs and small business—to pay for more government spending. It’s what a Ryan aide calls “the politics of division, pitting Americans against each other, preying on the emotions of fear and envy.”
Atlantic: Megan McArdle | More on Interchange Fees
Let me see if I can hit the main points on interchange:
Daily Capitalist | To OWS: You Get Yours, Don’t Worry About Mine
Why should anyone care how much money the founders of Google, Apple, or Microsoft made? Some might object that they earned a larger share of income, but in what sense can we regard their income as shared?

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Hatch, Grassley Wants Answers on Medicare Fraud
Top Senate Republicans want answers on why the Health and Human Services Department hasn't temporarily stopped new providers from enrolling in Medicare even though the odds of fraud are high.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
WSJ | Everyday Low Benefits
Wal-Mart workers pay for the retailer's ObamaCare embrace.
AEI | Slashing Doc Pay
Making US rates more like Europe's.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Immediate Medicare Reforms Could Slash Nation’s Debt
When it comes to the super-committee’s duty to reform Medicare, you’ll likely to hear the same tired and unsuccessful methods for lowering Medicare’s soaring costs: raising taxes, manipulating payment formulas, or making even deeper payment cuts to doctors and hospitals.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Door Wide Open to Australian Rate Cut
The consumer-price index rose 0.6% in the July-September quarter compared with the previous three months, and by 3.5% from the year-earlier period, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. Both figures matched the median forecasts of 19 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
WSJ | Prices Rising, for Better and Worse
The U.S. Agriculture Department on Tuesday said it expects retail food prices to increase 3.5% to 4.5% this year, after climbing just 0.8% in 2010, the slowest rate since 1962.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Washington Times | CUNNINGHAM: This twist doesn’t have the right moves
Fed plan to jump-start business expansion is unlikely to work.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ: Real Time Economcis | Why Don’t Gas Prices Fall When Oil Does?
When most Americans — including economists and newspaper reporters — talk about “oil prices,” they’re referring to West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, the grade of light, sweet crude that’s the basis for contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Reason Foundation | Don’t Believe Everything You Read – Inflation is NOT Peaking
Despite what headlines have been touting about falling commodity prices and the easing of inflation pressures, reporters should check again, prices are rising.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Camp Territorial Plan Exempts 95% of Offshore Profits From Tax
It’s a slice of the broader rewrite of individual and corporate U.S. tax laws Camp is seeking.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Fox Business | Flat Tax Center Stage Again
This country has never tried a flat tax. The federal government two centuries ago tried national sales taxes, and it’s long had a progressive tax system that was first enacted during the Civil War in 1862.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Senate Finance Republican’s Tax Recommendations a Good Start
Their recommendations lay out the principles they’d like tax reform to adhere to: economic growth, fairness, simplicity, revenue neutrality, permanence, competitiveness, and savings and investment.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
Washington Times | White House backs House GOP jobs bill
Signaling a brief spark of bipartisanship in Washington, the White House on Tuesday said it backs House Republicans’ effort to repeal a 3 percent withholding tax on government contractors, which is part of the GOP’s own job-creation push.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
RCM | Obama's Labor Embrace Belies Jobs Push
His $447 billion jobs bill recently failed to pass the Senate, so now the White House has promised to push it in bite-sized chunks. At the same time, though, the administration is pushing radical employment policies that are squashing private business, slowing job growth and hampering economic recovery. These efforts must stop.