Monday, June 13, 2011

General Economics

CNN: Money | Recession risk: Small, but growing
And the trend of a weakening economy is clear: most of the economists surveyed, even those who are not worried about a recession, have cut their forecasts for growth in the second quarter sometime during the last month. Many are trimming estimates for the full year as well.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
WSJ | America Needs the Shale Revolution
The drilling boom is the best U.S. energy news in generations and is crucial for reviving domestic manufacturing.
Financial Times | How to avoid our own lost decade
Even with the 2008-2009 policy effort that successfully prevented financial eollapse, the US is now halfway to a lost economic decade. In the past five years our eoconomy's growth rate averaged less than one per cent a year, similar to Japan when its bubble burst.
Washington Times | OWENS: Greenbacks for ‘green’ energy
Lucrative subsidies for renewables amount to crony capitalism.
WSJ | What It Would Take to Do a Double Dip
For those fretting that a string of disappointing U.S. economic data presage a double dip in the recession, there is good news and bad news.
Daily Caller | Private Sector must lead recovery, and government must get out of the way
Type the sentence(s) summarizing the link here.
A senior Obama administration official said recently that the private sector will have to lead this economic recovery. He's right! But the private sector cannot do it unless government gets out of the way.
MSN | Economy stuck in waiting room
Talk of a recovery seems premature, as job, real-estate and budget woes contine to weigh on the economy. The path to a real recovery will be painful.
Washington Post | How to avoid a lost decade
Beyond the lack of jobs and incomes, an economy producing below its potential for a prolonged interval sacrifices its future. Huge numbers of new college graduates are moving back in with their parents this month because they have no job or means of support.
Financial Times | America prefers fiscal idiocy to intelligent choices
One way or another, the US is finally going to collide with fiscal reality. There need not be a crisis: delas might yet be cut to make this collision less violent. What seems ever less likely, though, is that the country's politicians will frame intelligent choices to put before voters, or that voeters will insist that they do.

Heritage Foundation | Economic Freedom: Key to the 50 States’ Economic Recovery
Economic freedom, enhanced by limited government, is critical to economic dynamism and job creation, as documented in the Index of Economic Freedom, an annual cross-country policy analysis by The Heritage Foundation.
Calculated Risk | Schedule for Week of June 12th
Several "B-List" reports will be released this week: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Some reports will clearly be impacted by the disaster in Japan - like May retail sales and Industrial Production - other reports might show some stabilization - like the June Empire State (NY Fed) and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys.
Carpe Diem | The Latest Government Solution to a Non-Problem
Megabus already provides low-cost, high-speed service between Iowa City and Chicago, so why spend hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars for "high speed" rail?
Forbes | How The Demand-Siders Ruined The U.S. Economy
The latest, grim data confirm that the post-recession U.S. economic recovery of 2009-2011 has been one of the weakest on record. Real GDP growth since the recession that ended in mid-2009 has been a meager 5%, compared to average growth of 9% at this same point following nine previous recessions since WWII.
Calculated Risk | Unofficial Problem Bank list over 1,000 Institutions
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Financial Times: A-List | The eurozone heads for break up
The Economic and Monetary Union never fully satisfied the conitions for an optimal currency area. Instead its leaders hoped that their lakc of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies would in turn see an acceleration of structural reforms. These, it was hoped, would see productivity and growth rates converge.
Econlog | Larry Summers vs. PSST
In the AS-AD framework, the solution is simple. Raise aggregate demand. In the PSST framework, it is not so simple. The challenge is for entrepreneurs to discover new industries, and for workers to adapt.
Calculated Risk | Ranking Economic Data
I'm frequently asked for sources of data, so here is an update to the list ranking economic data. For each indicator I've included a link to the source, and a link to the current graph gallery.

RCM: Wells Fargo | RCM: Wells Fargo Type the Title You Want People to See
Now that the era of stimulus is coming to an end, decision makers must come to grips with the economy that we have—not the one some commentators dream up.

Health Care

CNN: Money | Death panel? No -- A promising way to control health costs
For critics of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, it's a convenient talking point. The problem is it's a caricature. In fact, the Independent Payment Advisory Board is a central tool for controlling the cost of -- and thus saving -- Medicare, and won't harm patient care.
CNN: Money | Parents won't pay uninsured adult kids' health care
The government had hoped that extending the age for dependent coverage to 26 would drastically reduce the large number of young adults who do not have any health care coverage. But the survey's results show that parents, already facing higher costs to cover their families, are put off by the additional costs of taking advantage of the new provision.
National Journal | Programs in Health Law Lack Funding
Health care reform is well under way, with outlines available for running the so-called Accountable Care Organizations and rules being written for health insurance marketplaces. But some of the programs mandated in the law don't have funding.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
RCM | Building An Escape Hatch Into Single Payer Healthcare
Give the Progressives what they want and make universal healthcare a unitary government service, provided free of charge to all comers, on one condition. That they agree to legislatively authorize a parallel nationwide healthcare free market enterprise zone.

NRO: The Corner | Can We Get ‘Price Controls’ Out of Medicare?
Here are some provocative paragraphs about doctors who treat Medicare patients and the rules they have to abide by:


WSJ | Europeans Found Taxed Heaviest: Russia's Rich Have Lightest Load
The income tax and social-security contributions of those earning $200,000 a year was three times as great in the highest-taxed country, Italy, as in the lowest-taxed country, Russia, according to UHY International, which studied 19 countries. Dubai doesn't levy income tax at all, according to the survey.
FT | Banks battle over US tax law
Banks and foreign governments are mounting an increasingly desperate push against a sweeping US tax law that will force overseas institutions to report their American clients...

Heritage Foundation | Stimulate the Weak Economy by Cutting Corporate Taxes
...Congress and the President should pursue fiscal policies that stimulate the engines of economic recovery and growth.


Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Market Watch | China lending, money-supply growth cools
China’s bank lending and money supply expanded at slower-than-expected rates in May, data released by the central bank showed Monday, adding to an overall picture of cooling growth as authorities further tighten credit to rein in inflation.
Market Watch | Big banks may need Fed OK for dividends, buybacks
The Federal Reserve on Friday proposed making annual decisions on whether the country’s largest banks can pay dividends or repurchase stock.
Minyanville | Is QE3 in the Cards as Economic Data and Stocks Falter?
Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

Free Banking | A Sound Euro, or Bailouts for Greece and Ireland?
There’s no reason that debt problems within certain euro countries should lead to the extinction of what is merely a “unit”, or a concept meant to put a money price on goods and investments.


MarketWatch | Economy, U.S. debt in market spotlight next week
Economic data and the heated debate on Capitol Hill over raising the U.S. debt ceiling will likely be the biggest market catalysts next week, as U.S. investors brace themselves for a possible seventh straight week of losses.
Politico | Report: States deep in debt, too
The 50 state governments owe more than $1 trillion in unfunded pension contributions and health care obligations to retired public employees, according to an Associated Press survey of state-level budget data.
Fiscal Times | Majority of Experts Predict Debt Ceiling Deal
A substantial majority of Washington budget and policy experts surveyed by The Fiscal Times predicts the negotiators will beat the August 2 deadline set by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
Bloomberg | ECB and Germany May Be Forced to Compromise
The confrontation between the European Central Bank and Germany over bailing out Greece risks causing so much damage that officials may be forced to compromise.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Cato Institute | Contrary to Keynesians, Cuts Help Default-Prone
One thing we should have learned is that a credible plan for deficit reduction requires action, not words.

Heritage Foundation | Stimulate the Weak Economy by Cutting Corporate Taxes
...Congress and the President should pursue fiscal policies that stimulate the engines of economic recovery and growth.
Merginal Revolution | How to cut government spending
...cutting spending is easier to do than these accounts make it seem. Cut the rate of growth of government spending on health care...
Heritage Foundation | Deficits: Spending, Not Revenue, Is to Blame
Deepening federal budget deficits indicate that one component of the federal budget baseline—either spending or revenue—is out of alignment.


WSJ | Sluggish Hiring Seen as a Threat to Recovery
The potential for a persistent slowdown in hiring is the biggest threat to the U.S. recovery, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic forecasting survey, as they sharply cut the number of jobs they projected the economy would create in coming months.

Econ Comments                                                                                                             
Barron's | The President Hasn't Seen the Light on Jobs
Lack of big ideas to boost economy could hurt Obama's re-election push.
WSJ | How We're Meeting the Job Creation Challenge
The President's Jobs and Competitiveness Council, comprised of 26 private-sector leaders, is developing ideas that will accelerate job growth and improve America's competitiveness.

WSJ: Real Time Economics | Broader Unemployment Rates, by State
In the nation’s worst-off states, more than one in five residents wanted a job and were unable to find one early this year.