Wednesday, October 10, 2012

General Economics

Market Watch | U.S. approves stress test rules for 100 banks
Bank regulators on Tuesday approved regulations requiring more than 100 large financial institutions with more than $10 billion in assets to conduct annual stress tests to ensure they have enough capital in the event of a deep recession.
FOX Business | OPEC Trims Demand Forecast, Sees Ample Supply Continuing
OPEC trimmed its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2013 due to a slowing global economy and said it expected a trend for ample supply to persist, reinforcing its message that producers are doing enough to tackle high prices.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Dodd-Frank's Heavy Hand but Slight Value
A little more than two years ago President Obama signed the Dodd-Frank bill, promising to end taxpayer-funded bailouts.
Real Clear Markets | In the Post Dodd-Frank Derivatives World, October 12th Matters
October 12 is a big day in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives world, as key provisions of Dodd-Frank's derivatives framework are set to go into effect. Regulators are adding to the anticipation by leaving the markets in suspense about how the rules work. The uncertainty surrounding what will happen on the 12th is emblematic of the government's unstructured approach to the Dodd-Frank implementation process.
Market Watch | Economy missing its spark, top forecaster says
The U.S. economy is missing that vital spark that could lead to a virtuous cycle of faster growth and more jobs, said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for Toronto-based Capital Economics, and the winner of the Forecaster of the Month award from MarketWatch.

Economist | Slower and slower
The International Monetary Fund's new World Economic Outlook is out this week, and the latest global growth projections are dismal, if expected. A few things stand out. One is the steady downshift in global growth since 2010 (which, to be fair, was one of the best annual global growth performances ever).

Health Care

CNN Money | 5 things to know about open enrollment
Open enrollment season is upon us. This year, employees can expect clearer coverage choices and more health plan options. But some things will get smaller, like your flexible spending account.
Politico | House GOP doctors campaigning about health law
The House Republican physicians are fanning out across the country this month doing health-oriented campaign and fundraising events for Mitt Romney and other House members.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Politico | Election could erase medical device tax
If there’s one thing Republicans and Democrats agree on these days it is that this upcoming election represents a clear choice for the American people. This election is a choice between two very different visions for our country. It’s an election about jobs. It’s an election about how to best strengthen our economy. It’s an election about how to secure a better future for our children and grandchildren.


Market Watch | IMF: Europe banks may have to shed $4.5T of assets
If European governments fail to solve the euro-area crisis -- implementing policies including tighter fiscal management, growth promotion, resolution of problem banks and unified bank supervision -- the region's banks could be forced to sell as much as $4.5 trillion of assets, the International Monetary Fund said in a report dated Wednesday.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
The American | How to Think about QE3
Alan Blinder, a prominent Democratic economist, once complained that when economists are in broad agreement with high confidence (on the issue of free trade, for example), they are never consulted. Instead, journalists and laymen ask economists to make pronouncements only on topics where there is little confidence and strong disagreement.
AEI | US will flood world with liquidity for years to come
Sir, There are many reasons to be concerned about the long-run global economic outlook and about the prospects for the long-run maintenance of an open international trading system. However, a shortage of global liquidity would not appear to be one of them, notwithstanding Barry Eichengreen’s assertion to the contrary


Bloomberg | S.F. Mayor Says Tax Plan Would Create 10,000 Tech Jobs
San Francisco Mayor Edwin Lee said his proposal to ease business taxes, if approved by voters, would bring 10,000 technology jobs to the city in the next two years.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Priming the Tax Pump
California Sen. Dianne Feinstein leads her Republican challenger Elizabeth Emken by 20 points, so she can't possibly be worried about re-election. What, then, explains her indignant missive to the Federal Trade Commission blaming the state's 50-cent gas price spike last week on "malicious trading schemes"?

Heritage Foundation | Boehner Is Right: Tell the Wall Street Moguls “No Tax Hikes”
Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives John Boehner (R-OH) has made clear that he opposes tax hikes on Americans. Tax hikes would slow the economy even more and kill jobs. But some “titans of finance” want Congress to hike your taxes.
Tax Foundation | Middle-Income Now Get $2.14 in Transfer Income for Every $1 They Pay in Federal Taxes
Last week, we reported on a recent CBO study indicating that 60 percent of American households now get more in federal transfer income than they pay in all federal taxes. While it is not surprising that low income households receive more in transfer income than they pay in all federal taxes, it was surprising to learn that households in the middle quintile are now over that threshold. Indeed, in 2009, they got $2.14 in transfer income for every dollar they paid in federal taxes.
AEI | Obama’s $40,000 middle-class tax hike
I recently wrote about a new paper from AEI’s Aspen Gorry and Matt Jensen that looks at the real annual cost of servicing the debt for households at various income levels  — including a potentially higher tax burden — under the most recent Obama budget


Market Watch | August job openings tick down to 3.56 million
Job openings at U.S. workplaces ticked down to 3.56 million in August from 3.59 million in July, the U.S. Labor Department reported Wednesday.
CNN Money | Teaching jobs finally coming back
After four years of layoffs, teaching jobs are finally coming back. Public school hiring rose this summer to its highest level in six years.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Markets | How to Interpret the Latest Employment Number
While we will never know what the Household survey would have reported before Wednesday night's presidential debate (h/t Jack Welch), there are a few conclusions we can derive from the data as it was presented. It is easy to get caught up in the month-to-month changes but that is ultimately a fruitless exercise since there is so much volatility built in both BLS surveys.
Forbes | When It Comes To Job Creation, Obama Doesn't Hold A Candle To Reagan
When Ronald Reagan became president in January 1981, the nation had just endured a recession the year before. Then another recession materialized on Reagan’s watch in a few months’ time, in the fall of 1981.
WSJ | I Was Right About That Strange Jobs Report
Imagine a country where challenging the ruling authorities—questioning, say, a piece of data released by central headquarters—would result in mobs of administration sympathizers claiming you should feel "embarrassed" and labeling you a fool, or worse.
NBER | The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries
Job polarization refers to the recent disappearance of employment in occupations in the middle of the skill distribution. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions, despite recoveries in aggregate output.

Heritage Foundation | September Jobs Report Shows Imports Create Jobs
The jobs report is out, and it reveals more than you may think. While President Obama seems to believe that exports alone will grow us out of the recession, the report indicates something much different: that imports are helping create lots of jobs.
Marginal Revolution | Multiple equilibria?
Labor hiring is an investment, and we must move to higher levels of investment for the labor market to recover.  For the most part, that is no longer a problem of nominal stickiness, as the quality of jobs has been varying for years, along with some wage adjustments.  The nominal wage stickiness fairy was dominant in 2009 but is today just another spirit.
WSJ | Compilation of Jobs Indicators Signal Weakness
In a sign of very weak job markets, a compilation of U.S. labor indicators weakened further in September, according to a report released Tuesday by the Conference Board.
Minyanville | Some Deep Thoughts on the Jobs Report
I know there have been a bazillion posts written on the September jobs report. Well, now we can say there are a bazillion and one, but I don't think any of them are going to be like this one. And that is completely intentional.


WSJ | New Zealand Deficit Makes Surplus Plan Tougher
A wider-than-forecast budget deficit has made it harder for New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key to meet a promise to erase the shortfall within three years.
National Journal | Can Civility Save Us From the Fiscal Cliff?
Though politicians “demagogue” budget issues and use fear to get reelected, a more civil approach to negotiations based on mutual respect and compromise could achieve debt reduction less painful than many have assumed, a pair of federal fiscal combat veterans said at a panel on Tuesday.
Washington Times | ‘Fiscal cliff’ fight already drags on U.S. economy
Worries about the federal government’s “fiscal cliff” are taking their toll on the economy well ahead of the year-end deadline, which analysts say is looking like it may be more damaging in the run-up than in the reality.
CNBC | ‘Fiscal Cliff’ May Be Felt Gradually, Analysts Say
Come January, if Congress fails to act, spending cuts and tax increases large enough to throw the country back into recession will hit.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | The U.S. expressway to Greece
When President Obama entered office, federal spending for fiscal 2008 already was way too high at nearly $3 trillion. Four years later, for fiscal 2012, Mr. Obama’s 2013 budget, released in February, shows he already has increased federal spending and the size of the federal government by more than 25 percent in just one term.