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Monday, July 1, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Chinese Manufacturing Gauges Fall as Slowdown Persists
Two gauges of China’s manufacturing fell in June, underscoring a sustained slowdown in the nation’s economy as policy makers seek to rein in financial speculation and real-estate prices.
FOX Business | Europe's Economic Downturn Eases, Asia Falters
Europe's prolonged economic decline may have stabilised and even rebounded in some areas, business surveys showed on Monday, although Asia exhibited signs of slowing as global demand wanes.
BLoomberg | Citigroup to Pay $968 Million to Fannie Mae on Faulty Loans
Citigroup Inc. (C), the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, agreed to pay Fannie Mae $968 million to settle claims tied to more than a decade’s worth of defective home loans sold to the taxpayer-backed mortgage firm.
CNN Money | U.S. manufacturing resumes expansion
U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in June after it had contracted the previous month, according to a report released Monday.
Bloomberg | Construction Spending in U.S. Rises, Led by Residential Projects
Construction spending in the U.S. climbed in May, led by the strongest expenditures on residential projects in more than four years.
CNBC | 'Unprecedented' $80 Billion Pulled From Bond Funds
A record amount of money poured out of exchange-traded and mutual bond funds in June, according to a fresh report by TrimTabs, nearly double the amount pulled out of bond funds at the height of the financial crisis in October 2008.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Fortune | Only the wealthy feel economic recovery
One reason Ben Bernanke might be thinking it's time for the Federal Reserve to pull back on its stimulus efforts could be American consumers.
Washington Post | Housing finance reform is off to a promising start
Few tasks facing Congress are more necessary than housing finance reform. The Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac debacle cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars and left the mortgage market in government-controlled limbo.
FOX Business | Rising Mortgage Rates: Straw that Breaks the Recovery's Back?
With the unemployment rate still sitting at 7.6% and economic growth at 1.8% for the first quarter, it seems the housing market is the backbone of the economic recovery—but its strength is about to be put to the test.
AEI | Too big to fail, forever
Over the past three decades, the U.S. financial system has suffered a nasty financial shock every half dozen years or so, on average. And each incarnation has been different — from the 1987 stock-market crash to the savings-and-loan crisis to the demise of Long-Term Capital Management to the Great Global Financial Crisis, which arguably began six years ago this summer with the collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Library of Economics | Why Don't Dying Firms Raise Prices?
"Demand is more elastic in the long-run than the short-run."  It's a textbook truism.  Implication: Raising prices is often a bad idea even if profits instantly rise.  In the long-run, demand will get more elastic, and the price-gouging firm will discover that its behavior was penny-wise and pound-foolish.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Obamacare: Because Mom said so
All those groups trying to get the “young, invincible” 20-somethings to sign up for Obamacare health insurance have identified a secret weapon.
CNN Money | States forgo billions by opting out of Medicaid expansion
Nearly half the nation's states are opting not to expand Medicaid to all of their low-income residents, leaving billions of federal dollars on the table and millions of poor Americans uninsured.
WSJ | Health-Insurance Costs Set for a Jolt
Healthy consumers could see insurance rates double or even triple when they look for individual coverage under the federal health law later this year, while the premiums paid by sicker people are set to become more affordable, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of coverage to be sold on the law's new exchanges.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Obamacare Shocker: Premiums Could Double
This morning’s Wall Street Journal published its own analysis of premiums under Obamacare, and its conclusions will prompt shock—rate shock—among those who need to buy health insurance under the law’s new exchanges next year

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Dollar Poised to Reign Again
The surging dollar has compiled an impressive list of victims in recent weeks. It has sent the Australian dollar down to its weakest level in 33 months, driven the Indian rupee and Turkish lira to all-time lows and hit multiyear highs against currencies as far-flung as the Norwegian krone and Brazilian real. The WSJ Dollar Index, a gauge of the dollar's exchange rate against seven of the world's most heavily traded currencies, reached a two-year high in May.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Forbes | Don't Believe The Hysterics, 'Deflation' Is Our Path To Economic Revival
If we want a Reagan-style recovery we’re going to need a lot of changes, but a stronger, more stable dollar looms largest. To put it very plainly, a stronger dollar will foster a migration away from the low-margin business concepts of yesterday in favor of the high margin, prosperity inducing business concepts of the mind.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Watch out bullies and slow drivers, you're about to get fined
In Monona, Wis., home to about 7,500 residents, bullies (and their parents) can now be fined under a new law that has been in effect since May 30.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Tax Reform From Scratch
Lost amid last week's tumult over Edward Snowden and the Supreme Court was a glimmer of hope for tax reform. The Senate's two main tax writers, Democrat Max Baucus and Republican Orrin Hatch, announced the principle that they are going to rewrite the tax code from scratch and that the supporters of every tax preference will have to justify its continuation.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Payroll Gains Probably Sustained in June: U.S. Economy Preview
Employers in the U.S. probably created almost as many jobs in June as in the prior month as businesses grew more confident the economy will overcome the tax increases and government cutbacks that have restrained growth, economists said before reports this week.
Market Watch | U.S. economy, hiring far from top speed
The economy has sidestepped a lot of potholes in 2013, but the road ahead still isn’t wide open. The latest hiring figures are likely to show the U.S. falling well short of its top speed.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Jobs Report Dominates Holiday-Shortened Week
Investors and economy watchers will have many reports to digest in the coming week. The main course will be Friday’s employment report, served up after U.S. financial markets close Thursday to observe Independence Day.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Student loan rates doubling on Monday
Students preparing to take subsidized government loans will see their interest rates double to 6.8% from current levels, starting Monday, July 1.
WSJ | How Next Debt-Ceiling Fight Could Play Out
For the first time in three years, Washington is in the midst of a multimonth stretch without facing a fiscal deadline. Business owners and households seem to be enjoying the breather, and the economy is trying to stretch its legs. But consider yourself forewarned—it probably won't last much longer.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
CATO | Good News on the Budget Deficit?
If you’re a big spender, there’s good news in Washington. The deficit is down. The budget crisis is over. So Uncle Sam can go back to his wastrel ways!
AEI | Net worthless
The Federal Reserve regularly releases data on the net worth of Americans, and newspapers across the U.S. celebrated recently when the latest numbers suggested that our net worth had returned to where it was before the financial crisis. Our wealth collapsed but then recovered, and the hole that the financial market dug for us, so the story goes, has been refilled.
Washington Times | What austerity?
“Woe is me” is the cry of every bureaucrat in official Washington, suffering under the heavy hand of budgetary belt-tightening that goes by the name of sequestration. But there’s actually no sign of cutbacks in the job market in Washington, D.C. The business of government is booming.