Friday, November 7, 2014

General Economics

Wall Street Journal | Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 214,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Falls to 5.8%
U.S. payrolls grew modestly in October but the unemployment rate fell and wages edged up, signs the labor market is strengthening.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Alhambra Investment Partners | The True State of Recovery
In the weeks leading up to the election, incumbents (mostly D’s) were heard to say that “they” created 10 million jobs over the past 55 months as if to prove the recovery was working (an unfortunate choice of wording that left a gaping hole in credibility). Simple back-of-the-envelope calculations proved that to be already deficient on its face – a monthly gain of 181k is at best lackluster.
Business Insider | UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS TO 5.8%
Job gains in October were less than expected, though the unemployment rate fell to is lowest since 2008.
Real Clear Markets | It's the Economy, and They're Not Stupid
The sharp rebuke to the Obama administration delivered by the mid-term elections should not be construed as an endorsement of the GOP, which remains as unpopular as ever. Rather, as has been the case in the last few election cycles, voter revolts have hinged on continued dissatisfaction with the strength of the economy and the diminishing financial prospects of ordinary citizens.


Wall Street Journal | Fed’s Dudley: If Economy Meets Forecast, 2015 Rate Increase Remains Likely
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley warned Friday there may be “bumps in the road” when the U.S. central bank begins to raise short-term interest rates in what is likely to be 2015.


Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Zero Hedge | Why There Is No Wage Growth: One In Five Jobs Added Was A Waiter Or A Bartender
While the headline jobs print was a modest kneejerk disappointment at least until it is appropriately spun in some sort of "goldilocks" frame, where the October jobs report was a true disappointment, was in the report of average hourly earnings: rising at just 0.1% for the month and 2.0% Y/Y, it missed expectations across both metrics.

Wall Street Journal | Economists React to the October Jobs Report: ‘On the Whole, A Strong Report’
U.S. employers added 214,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.8% and wages moved up slightly. The headline number was lower than gains in recent months, but the economy has now added an average of 224,000 jobs over the last three months.


Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
CBO | Long-Term Implications of the 2015 Future Years Defense Program
To provide information about its plans beyond the coming year, the Department of Defense (DoD) generally provides a five-year plan, called the Future Years Defense Program (FYDP), that is associated with the budget it submits to the Congress.