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Thursday, September 26, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Economy in U.S. Expanded at a 2.5% Annual Rate Last Quarter
The economy expanded at faster pace in the second quarter from the previous three months, a sign the U.S. was weathering federal budget cutbacks and higher taxes.
CNN Money | Mortgage rates dip as Fed holds stimulus steady
Mortgage interest rates fell after the Federal Reserve said last week that it won't pare back its stimulus program.
Bloomberg | Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Decreased 1.6% in August
Fewer Americans signed contracts in August to buy previously owned homes, a sign that rising mortgage rates may have slowed housing market momentum.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | The late, great middle class
Mr. Obama promised to restore the middle class. In truth, he has enacted the very policies that have done it the most damage in years. That paradox may explain why his base of support remains the very rich and the very poor. Goldman Sachs, federal bureaucrats and aid recipients are helped in a way that the strapped hardware store owner, Starbucks barista and part-time welder are not.
Fortune | Corporate profits: Not as good as they seem
Margins, the percentage of each sale that ends up as profit, as measured by GDP, have never been this high. They hit a record near the beginning of 2011, and have continued to march up. At the end of June, corporate profit margins were 11.5%. That's two percentage points higher than the roughly 9.5% they peaked at in 2006.
Forbes | Why Does The U.S. Economy Sag? Look No Further Than The Number 17
The significant efforts in recent years to measure economic freedom did not come from universities. They came from think tanks. These efforts are a powerful proof that think tanks are an essential institution in civil society. More than that, the “freedom truths” they affirm are vital for the world and the United States. This is crucial information that we all need to know.
CRS | Shutdown of the Federal Government: Causes, Processes, and Effects
When federal agencies and programs lack appropriated funding, they experience a funding gap. Under the Antideficiency Act, they must cease operations, except in certain emergency situations or when law authorizes continued activity.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Vital Signs: Second-Quarter GDP Details Are Plus for Third-Quarter Growth
The second quarter is far back in the rearview mirror—but the latest estimate of the spring gross domestic product offers one good bit of news for third-quarter growth.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Exchanges may have high out-of-pocket costs
Consumers may have to dig a little deeper into their wallets to pay for health care in the Obamacare insurance exchanges, according to a new analysis by Avalere Health.
CNN Money | Are employers dumping health benefits because of Obamacare?
There are many assumptions about what the effects of Obamacare will be. This series aims to separate myths from realities and answer questions surrounding the Affordable Care Act.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | No escape from Obamacare
Americans want relief from Obamacare, but they probably won’t get it. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas tried to shame his colleagues out of the bad health care idea — for 21 hours — but senators by act of Congress have no shame. The White House isn’t budging from the Oct. 1 implementation date for Obamacare. This puts House conservatives in a pickle of considerable size.
Real Clear Markets | With Worried Uncertainty, Americans Tip Toe Toward Obamacare
With the implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act just days away, it may be prudent to revisit the original premises for this radical restructuring of health care delivery in the United States. Assessing the original problem may provide insights into the effectiveness of the new law.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Watch Out, 20-Somethings: How Obamacare Hits Young People
“Insurance premiums are going to increase for a lot of consumers, but young adults are going to be hit the hardest,” explained Heritage expert Alyene Senger on “Fox and Friends.”

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | IMF Urges U.S. Congress to Find Agreement to Avoid Shutdown
The International Monetary Fund urged U.S. lawmakers to quickly find a fiscal agreement to avoid a federal government shutdown and raise its $16.7 trillion borrowing limit.
Bloomberg | Inflation Expectations Drop to Lowest Since 2010, JPMorgan Says
Investor expectations for U.S. inflation have declined to the lowest in more than three years even as data point to economic recovery, JPMorgan Chase & Co., said, citing surveys.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
CNBC | The Fed's 'hidden agenda' behind money-printing
The markets were surprised when the Federal Reserve did not announce a tapering of the quantitative easing bond buying program at its September meeting. Indeed, its signal to the market that it was keeping interest rates low was welcome, but there may be a hidden agenda.
Bloomberg | Deciphering Some Mumbo Jumbo by the Fed
“The tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and the labor market.” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Sept. 18
FOX Business | Fed's Stein: More Predictability Needed About Taper
The Federal Reserve should make itself more predictable about scaling back its massive bond buying campaign, a top U.S. central banker said on Thursday, acknowledging that it had confused markets by not tapering at its meeting last week.
Mercatus | The FSOC's Latest Careless Too Big to Fail Decision
Last week the Financial Stability Oversight Council designated Prudential Financial as a systemically important financial institution in need of regulation by the Federal Reserve. The FSOC's careless decision to slap a too-big-to-fail label on Prudential undermines-rather than secures-financial stability.
AEI | Dodd-Frank's costs will be paid for by low-income bank customers
The fifth anniversary of the financial crisis has come and gone. There was much discussion about safety and soundness of big banks and progress of new safeguards, such as the Dodd-Frank Act and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). There was shockingly little discussion about how consumers have fared.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Economist | The "setting the mood" approach to monetary policy
A colleague emailed me a Reuters story noting that, according to polling, the vast majority of Americans have no idea what quantitative easing is. This is a result I find neither surprising nor discouraging; surely the public has better things to do than learn about QE. At any rate, the colleague shared the story as part of an ongoing discussion about just how central bank expectations-setting works. I dashed off some thoughts back to him in an email, and I thought I may as well share them with the internet. Begin communication.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Amy Klobuchar, Orrin Hatch warn against repealing medical device tax now
The leading Senate backers of a push to repeal the medical device tax are warning that the government funding bill currently under consideration isn’t the right venue for this fight.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Markets | Why Tax Subsidies For Plant & Equipment Are Anti-Growth
Construction magnate Dennis Washington is a billionaire today, but at the age of 29 he quit a good job working for his uncle after a dispute over a missed day of work. Another job offer immediately came his way once he resigned, but rather than be someone else's employee yet again, Washington started his own company.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Labor Estimate Shows U.S. Payrolls Revised Up in Year to March
The Labor Department’s preliminary estimate of employment in the year ended March 2013 was revised up by 345,000 workers, reflecting the addition of employees who weren’t previously counted in the monthly payrolls report.
CNN Money | California raises minimum wage to $10
Millions of California's hourly workers will become among of the best paid in the country next year under a new minimum wage law enacted Wednesday.
Bloomberg | Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline to 305,000
The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week, showing further progress in the labor market.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | What Happens to Jobs Report if Government Shuts Down?
Federal bureaucrats are scrambling to determine which government functions should be deemed “essential” in the event of a partial government shutdown. Next week’s employment report seems to lie squarely on the chopping block.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Boehner: No debt-ceiling hike unless spending cut
The Republican leader of the U.S. House said Thursday his party plans to push a bill that ties an increase in how much the government can borrow - the so-called debt ceiling - to more cuts in federal spending.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Saving the Sequester
One cost of the media circus around Ted Cruz is that almost no one is following the classic Washington misdirection play over the automatic sequester spending cuts. While right and left are preoccupied with their hero or bugbear, the politicians are attempting to break the spending caps.
CBO | Testimony on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
In brief, between 2009 and 2012, the federal government recorded the largest budget deficits relative to the size of the economy since 1946, causing federal debt to soar. Federal debt held by the public is now about 73 percent of the economy’s annual output, or gross domestic product (GDP). That percentage is higher than at any point in U.S. history except a brief period around World War II, and it is twice the percentage at the end of 2007.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Plan to Suspend Debt Limit Means Debt Would Rise to $17.8 Trillion
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew announced a new debt ceiling deadline today, urging congressional lawmakers and the President to come to an agreement concerning the nation’s borrowing authority by October 17. Republicans are proposing a $1.1 trillion increase in the debt limit by suspending the cap through December 2014. The big question is: Will lawmakers take control of the key drivers of soaring spending and debt as part of an increase?
NY Times | Detroit Spent Billions Extra on Pensions
Detroit’s municipal pension fund made payments for decades to retirees, active workers and others above and beyond normal benefits, costing the struggling city billions of dollars and helping push it into bankruptcy, according to people who have reviewed the payments.
Heritage Foundation | Morning Bell: $43,000 Per Household
Did you know that since President Obama came into office, the debt limit has been raised seven times? With those increases, Congress has added $43,000 in debt for every American household in just the last four years.