Pages

Friday, November 1, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Fourth-Quarter U.S. GDP Forecasts Lowered on Shutdown
The U.S. economy will probably expand at a 2 percent annualized rate in the final three months of the year, less than economists projected at the start of the budget impasse that resulted in a 16-day government shutdown.
CNN Money | Next year's 401(k) contribution limit: still $17,500
The IRS said there wasn't a big enough increase in the Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation, to lead the agency to raise the contribution cap for 401(k)s, 403(b)s, most 457 plans and the federal government's Thrift Savings Plan for 2014.
Market Watch | Final U.S. Markit PMI for October rises to 51.8
The final reading of Markit's U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index increased to 51.8 in October from an initial "flash" reading of 51.1. It remains below 52.8 in September.
Bloomberg | Homebuilders to Rally as Bet on Taper Premature: EcoPulse
Shares of U.S. homebuilding companies have fallen more than 20 percent since May, even as home-improvement retailers rose to a record high, a sign some investors are too pessimistic that higher mortgage rates could derail new construction.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Forbes | After The Government Shutdown Dust Settles, 3 Predictions For 2014
You don’t need Karl Rove’s white board to know which way the wind’s blowing. There is a profound shift happening in the way politics are done in America, and a civil war has erupted within the Republican Party as a result. It’s chaotic, and the attacks from the Republican establishment are getting uglier. The beltway milieu doesn’t take kindly to people who don’t abide by “the old way of doing things.”
Bloomberg | IMF Backs U.S. Treasury in Criticizing German Exports
The International Monetary Fund joined the U.S. Treasury Department in rebuking Germany’s trade surpluses, rebuffing the claim of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government that booming exports are a sign of economic health.
Politico | Don’t throw the tea party overboard
In the wake of the government shutdown and near default, a Beltway consensus has emerged: The GOP lost, the tea party movement is to blame and, therefore, the former must abandon the latter or risk being consigned to permanent minority status.
Market Watch | Goodbye, $100 oil. Hello, $3 gasoline!
Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. are heading toward a record, pushing off a return to $100-a-barrel oil, and giving drivers a shot at $3-a-gallon gasoline.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Economist | Smith's word
Adam Smith is known as the father of economics. Most people think of him as the archetypal free-marketeer. But Smith is often misquoted. This post will give a few examples of how people have misinterpreted Smith’s ideas—and show what he really meant. 
NY Times | The Perils of a Free Trade Pact With Europe
Currently slightly beneath most people’s radar, but coming soon to the fore is a potential free trade agreement with Europe. Negotiations started in October and, after a delay because of the government shutdown, may now pick up speed. Some parts of this potential agreement make sense, but there is also an important trap to be avoided: European requests on financial services.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Medicare docs face 24% pay cut ... again
Come January 1, Medicare physician reimbursements are slated to be slashed by 24.4%. And that would be on top of this year's 2% reduction forced by across-the-board budget cuts.
National Journal | Obamacare Insurance Choices Shrink for Individual Buyers in New Hampshire
In the new health insurance marketplaces created by the Affordable Care Act, 95 percent of Americans will have at least two insurance companies from which to compare and select plans, according to a Health and Human Services Department analysis.
CNN Money | Obamacare delay would send rates soaring
Congressional Republicans and some Democrats are pushing to give individuals more time to sign up for Obamacare after major technical problems have stymied enrollment. But insurers say the consequences of such a move would be heavy.
CNN Money | 'Use-or-lose' rule changing for flexible spending accounts
On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would be relaxing a rule that requires account holders to "use-or-lose" the funds in their accounts by the end of the year. Employers will now be able to allow participants to carry over up to $500 in unused funds into the next year.
Washington Times | Small business insurance costs up; report finds flawed Obamacare rollout a contributing factor
Two-thirds of small businesses report paying more for insurance premiums per employee this year than they did in 2012, according to a new study from the National Federation of Independent Business released Thursday.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Forbes | The High Costs Of Obamacare Hit Home For The Middle Class
Economists love to say “there is no such thing as a free lunch.” I wrote a whole book about how many free lunches there are in the U.S. these days. Free lunches exist in the sense that somebody is getting something for free; of course, somebody else has to pay. As the Affordable Care Act moves closer to full implementation a lot of people who expected to receive a free lunch are discovering that they are instead getting stuck with the bill.
NBER | Who Pays for Public Employee Health Costs?
We analyze the incidence of public-employee health benefits. Because these benefits are negotiated through the political process, relevant labor market institutions deviate significantly from the competitive, private-sector benchmark.
Heritage Foundation | Obamacare’s Health Insurance Tax Targets Consumers and Small Businesses
Obamacare imposes a new tax on health insurance premiums, starting in 2014, that will increase individual and small group health insurance premiums by an additional 2–3 percent.

Monetary

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Market Watch | Fed's Plosser more worried about the exit
Charles Plosser, the president of the Philadelphia Fed Bank, said Friday he was growing more worried about the eventual exit from the Fed's bond-buying program and suggested the central bank put a limit on how large its balance sheet should grow as a way of ending the program.
CNBC | Policing banks: The feds' big fail
Obamacare isn't the only piece of landmark legislation that some members of Congress have been diligently working to delay.
Bloomberg | Fed’s Bubble Alarm Stuck on Snooze
The Federal Reserve’s policy of unrestrained quantitative easing has worked like rocket fuel for U.S. stocks this year. Case in point: Rocket Fuel Inc.
National Journal | Hey, Inflation Truthers, Enough Already!
Uncle Sam's number crunchers reported Wednesday that the American economy is, for now at least, safe from inflation. But they're lying to you. And so is the Federal Reserve Board, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a pan-ideological coalition of the nation's top economists.
Washington Times | Enough is enough — it’s time to end the secrecy at the Federal Reserve
In 1995, Sen. Harry Reid took to the Senate floor and exclaimed, “For years, I have sponsored legislation that would call for an audit of the Federal Reserve system. I offer that amendment every year, and every year the legislation gets nowhere. I think it would be interesting to know about the Federal Reserve. I think we should audit the Federal Reserve.”

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Soda Tax of 20% May Cut U.K. Obesity Rate by 180,000
A 20 percent tax on sugary drinks in the U.K. would cut the nation’s obesity rate by 1.3 percent, with the greatest benefit for people under 30, a study found.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
CATO | ‘There Is No Such Thing as an Individual Mandate. It’s a Tax.’
That’s what Department of Justice attorney Joel McElvain said in open court last week. And thus the Obama administration reversed itself once again on whether the individual mandate is a tax. 

Employment

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | No Jobs Data Until Next Friday, and Even Then Will Be Messy
The monthly jobs report will be delayed one week until next Friday because of the partial government shutdown. When it does come out Nov. 8, economists caution that a portion of the data could be temporarily skewed.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Appropriators appeal for early budget number
In a rare joint public appeal, the leadership of the House and Senate Appropriations committees asked that budget negotiators give them an answer before Thanksgiving on what the topline will be for discretionary spending over the coming year.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
AEI | The myth that baby boomers are stealing jobs
In the wake of the government shutdown, the budget conference committee led by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Senate Budget Committee Chair Patty Murray, D-Wash., now faces the tough and contentious work of trimming the massive federal budget.