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Tuesday, October 8, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Fannie, Freddie ease lending crunch during shutdown - See more at: http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/08/real_estate/mortgage-lending-shutdown/index.html?iid=HP_LN#sthash.NurkA9KH.dpuf
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have relaxed rules that would have kept banks from approving mortgages during the government shutdown. - See more at: http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/08/real_estate/mortgage-lending-shutdown/index.html?iid=HP_LN#sthash.NurkA9KH.dpuf
Bloomberg | IMF Cuts Global Outlook While Warning of U.S. Default Threat
The International Monetary Fund cut its global outlook for this year and next as capital outflows further weaken emerging markets and warned that a U.S. government default could “seriously damage” the world economy.
CNN Money | A 1-month shutdown: $50 billion economic blow
If the week-long government shutdown stretches to a month, it would mean a $50 billion blow to the U.S. economy. - See more at: http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/07/news/economy/shutdown-economic-impact/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN#sthash.AA0MB96Y.dpuf
Bloomberg | German Exports Increased in August on Euro-Area Recovery
German exports (GRBTEXMM) rose in August amid signs the economic recovery is continuing in the euro area, the country’s biggest trading partner.
Market Watch | No global leadership as economy slides toward edge
As financial movers and shakers gather in Washington later this week, the world is not a happy place. Five years after Lehman and three years after the great recession in the U.S. supposedly ended, the engines of global growth are either slowing or sputtering.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Markets | If They Tell You They Predicted The Financial Crisis, They're Lying
As early as June 12, 2006, and many times after that, this column at varying locales pointed to the rush into housing as a very negative economic signal. The aforementioned 2006 Op-ed noted that the housing boom of the Bush era made his economic presidency most similar to that of Jimmy Carter's.
CATO | Stepping on the Bureaucrat’s Cape
Should government employees have privileges and legal immunities that the rest of us do not have? The government shutdown battle is, in part, a dispute about the extra subsidies members of Congress and their staffs are slated to get from Obamacare.
Washington Times | The shutdown as an opportunity
It would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic for our nation. No, not the government shutdown, but the relentless assault by President Obama — and his Senate sidekick Harry Reid — on fundamental constitutional procedures for making laws, applying them and enforcing them.
FOX Business | U.S. on the Gridlocked Road to Recession?
Washington politicians are playing a dangerous game with this government shutdown. If it continues for a long period, the U.S. economy could take a tailspin back into recession.
CATO | Why Growth Is Getting Harder
For over a century, the trend line for the long-term growth of the U.S. economy has held remarkably steady. Notwithstanding huge changes over time in economic, social, and political conditions, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has fluctuated fairly closely around an average annual rate of approximately 2 percent. Looking ahead, however, there are strong reasons for doubting that this historic norm can be maintained.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | U.S. foreclosures drop 34% over past year: CoreLogic
U.S. home foreclosures plunged over the past year, but the number of troubled properties remains high, with elevated rates of distressed properties in certain states, according to data released Tuesday.
WSJ | Small-Business Optimism Index Slips
The National Federation of Independent Business‘s small-business optimism index fell to 93.9 last month from a revised 94.1 in August that was first reported as 94.0.
Library of Economics | Fun Facts on Disability Insurance
The U.S. disability rate fell 25% between 1977 and 1987, then more than doubled.  The staunchest health care skeptics should be baffled.  Unless, of course, the availability of free money makes people sick to their stomachs...

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Fact checkers can help keep ACA debate honest
Although the federal government is currently shut down as a result of Republican efforts to defund the Affordable Care Act, many important debates over health policy going forward will take place at the state level. Unfortunately, continuing public confusion over the law is likely to be exploited by opportunistic politicians if they aren’t fact-checked aggressively by the press.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Obamacare’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week
It’s now been seven days since Obamacare’s exchanges officially launched. In reality, however, the “launch” has more closely resembled a blooper reel of rocket failures than a smooth takeoff.
WSJ | Maryland Says It Has 326 Enrollees in Health Exchange
The state of Maryland says it has thousands of people interested in buying health insurance on its new state-run exchange, but only 326 so far have actually enrolled in new coverage.
Library of Economics | Higher-Cost Health Insurance for Older California Resident
One thing that pretty everyone expected if he/she had paid attention during the ObamaCare debate is that the new law would impose a huge cost on young people. That seems to be happening.

Monetary

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Mercatus | Affordable Care Act Is a Raw Deal for Millennials
It's clear that millennials will be hammered by Obamacare, but most of the analyses wending their way through the media understate the negative impact the law will have on the cost and quality of health insurance for these 20- and 30-somethings. The problem is that Obamacare, also known as the Affordable Care Act, takes money from a variety of pockets, and many or most of the flurry of analyses focus on insurance premiums in isolation.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Economist | A Federal Reserve clown show
One concerns the revelation that three Fed governors, rather than the more vocal regional Fed presidents, led the push the begin winding down the Fed's programme of ongoing asset purchases.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | A Sneak Peek at 2014 Taxes
The Internal Revenue Service won't release the official numbers for inflation adjustments to tax-code provisions affecting individuals in 2014 until later this year. But some experts have released their own projections.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | New MLP Funds Aim to Ease Tax Burden
Investors looking to tap into master limited partnerships fueling America's energy boom often find exchange-traded funds and mutual funds a clumsy way to enter the field.

Employment

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | Minimum wage, maximum nonsense
In his 2013 State of the Union message, President Obama suggested that Congress increase the federal hourly minimum wage from its current rate of $7.25 to at least $9. Several states are also debating an increase; indeed, the California Legislature recently approved and Gov. Jerry Brown just signed a bill that would boost the hourly state minimum from $8 to $10 in three years. In Florida where I reside, the legal minimum (with some important exceptions) is $7.79 and is inflation-adjusted annually.
USA Today | Democrats must avoid Republican economic anarchism: Column
Economic calamity begets radical politics. America's worst financial panic and recession since the 1930s gave birth to the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements. Now Occupy seems to be fizzling out, but in Week 2 of a government shutdown, it is looking more likely that Tea Party Republicans could plunge the nation gratuitously into a new economic emergency.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Government shutdown: John Boehner: I’m not 'drawing any lines in the sand'
A week into a government shutdown, and nine days until the debt ceiling is reached, the speaker of the House took a new tone, saying he isn’t “drawing any lines in the sand,” but simply wants to negotiate with President Barack Obama and Senate Democrats to end the budgetary impasses.
FOX News | US consumer debt increased $13.6B in August but credit card use fell for 3rd straight month
Americans cut back on using their credit cards in August for a third straight month, a sign that consumers remain cautious about spending.
CNN Money | 4 ways a debt ceiling crisis could affect you
Congress has never willfully let the United States default on any of its legal obligations. So it's impossible to say with certainty what will happen if lawmakers don't approve a debt ceiling increase soon. - See more at: http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/08/news/economy/debt-ceiling-crisis-fallout/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN#sthash.SweTtjqw.dpuf

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
CNN Money | Don't want to raise debt ceiling? Get ready for austerity - See more at: http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/07/news/economy/debt-ceiling/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN#sthash.WEtDPM2a.dpuf
A recent CNN/ORC poll found that 38% of Americans think it would be a good idea not to raise the debt ceiling. - See more at: http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/07/news/economy/debt-ceiling/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN#sthash.WEtDPM2a.dpuf
Real Clear Markets | The Costs of Debt Default Are Sobering
The Treasury Department's report of the consequences of default should be sobering: a credit market freeze, a plunging stock market, and a falling dollar. Worse, unlike past fiscal crises, this one doesn't seem to have a resolution. Democrats and the President are insisting that they will not negotiate.
NY Times | Obama and the Debt
The Republicans in the House of Representatives who declare that they may refuse to raise the debt limit threaten to do more than plunge the government into default. They are proposing a blatant violation of the 14th Amendment, which states that “the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law” is sacrosanct and “shall not be questioned.”
NBER | Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement
Many organizations have budgets that expire at the end of the fiscal year. Faced with uncertainty over future spending demands, these organizations have an incentive to build up a rainy day fund over the first part of the year. If demand does not materialize, they must rush to spend these resources on low quality projects at the end of the year.
AEI | Yes, fighting over the debt ceiling hurts the economy
Senators Coburn and Paul took to the airwaves to argue that going past the so-called X date – the date beyond which the Treasury cannot honor all U.S. financial obligations, believed to be sometime in the second half of October – does not automatically mean that the U.S. will default on our debt. Other prominent conservatives have advanced this argument as well.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
CATO | The Real Dysfunction: A $17 Trillion National Debt
Once again the media are full of talk about dysfunction and default, as the partial government shutdown threatens to linger until the federal government hits the limit of its borrowing capacity, possibly on Oct. 17. The parties in Congress are still far apart on passing a budget bill to keep the government running, and Republicans are also promising not to raise the debt ceiling without some spending reforms.