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Friday, July 19, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | U.S. Outlook Revised by Moody’s to Stable on Deficit Reduction
The U.S.’s Aaa credit-rating outlook was revised to stable from negative by Moody’s Investors Service, which said the government’s debt trajectory has steadied with budget deficits narrowing.
Bloomberg | Microsoft Profit Misses Estimates Amid Surface Writedown
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) fell the most in four years after fourth-quarter profit missed analysts’ projections by the biggest margin in at least a decade as demand weakens for personal computers running Windows.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Fortune | Why the spike in gas prices won't hurt spending
Most economists do not expect gas prices to reach the levels that typically force consumers to stop spending elsewhere.
Bloomberg | The Myth of China’s Economic Reform
Can we please have a moratorium on the word “Likonomics”? Premier Li Keqiang’s plans to overhaul the Chinese economy have hardly earned such a grand moniker yet.
AEI | Europe: It's going to get a lot worse before it gets any better
Shakespeare memorably wrote that when sorrows come, they come not as single spies but as battalions. He could very well have been writing about the current spate of political troubles in Europe’s beleaguered economic periphery. For there we now find the most dangerous aggregation of political troubles, which hardly bodes well for the long run survival of the euro.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Will Rising Mortgage Rates Halt The Housing Rebound?
Could rising mortgage rates derail the housing market’s slow healing? Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey are divided on the question. Among those surveyed, 40% said the rise “won’t have a noticeable effect,” 35.6% warned “it will slow sales” and 24.4% said “it will slow home-price gains.”

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Barack Obama defends health care law, 'glitches' and all
President Barack Obama used insurance companies’ latest consumer refunds as a chance Thursday to again defend his health care law and to insist that despite “glitches,” the measure will be fully implemented.
National Journal | Democrats’ Couch Time is Over on Obamacare
Republicans have had the Affordable Care Act battlefield to themselves for a long time, but the pro-Obamacare forces are coming off the couch. The intense back-and-forth of the past few days is a taste of what’s to come as the most contentious parts of the law start phasing in this fall.
CNN Money | Obamacare delay passes insurance burden onto workers
Employers got a one year reprieve from having to offer health insurance. But workers at these companies still have to get coverage or pay a penalty.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | ObamaCare's Definition of a Full-Time Job Needs Revising
In Lafayette, Ind., a school district cut the hours of 200 support staff to no more than 29 per week. In Bangor, Maine, the school system is preparing to track and cap the number of hours worked by substitute teachers to ensure that they don't work more than 29 hours a week. Elsewhere, in Portland, Maine, a small business reduced a part-time employee's hours from 35 to 29.
CATO | Obamacare Allies Break Ranks
President Obama touted Obamacare’s supposed benefit Thursday in the hope of distracting attention from Wednesday’s bipartisan House vote that for the first time revealed fissures in congressional Democrats’ lockstep support for his health care law.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Obamacare, Simplified
With open enrollment in Obamacare’s exchanges set to start in fewer than three months, the law’s supporters are attempting to change the subject from Obamacare’s many delays and glitches. Instead, they’re mounting a campaign to sell the unpopular measure to the public.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
FOX Business | Dodd-Frank Turns 3: What Has it Wrought?
The 2008 financial crisis laid bare flaws in our financial sector, and the economy suffered severe consequences from those flaws.  We can all agree something should have been done to reform the financial sector.  But as Dodd-Frank celebrates its third birthday, it’s worth evaluating the costs, the implementation progress, problems created, and consider whether this was really the right reform.
Bloomberg | China Removes Floor on Lending Rates as Economy Cools
China will remove the floor on lending rates offered by the nation’s financial institutions as economic growth slows and authorities push forward steps to give banks more freedom to set borrowing costs.
WSJ | Yellen Seen as Front-Runner for Top Fed Post
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal see Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve's vice chairwoman, as the clear front-runner to succeed Ben Bernanke as the central bank's leader when his term ends in January.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Market Watch | Glass-Steagall is necessary
I’ve made the argument before, so there’s no reason to repeat it at length here. The reality is that reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act has about as much chance of happening as the financial industry walking away from its $300 million a year in lobbying.
Fortune | Bank earnings have never been more complicated
You would think that a well-researched and insightful book about the Washington legislative process would have nothing in common with a big bank's quarterly earnings news release. But you'd be wrong.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Bernanke Explains How Fed Views Inflation
There’s long been a gulf between how people view inflation and how central bankers take account of price pressures.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | U.K. plans big tax breaks for shale gas
The U.K. government is planning to slash taxes for energy companies in a bid to stimulate a U.S.-style shale gas boom.
Bloomberg | OECD Proposes Plan for Crackdown on Companies’ Tax Avoidance
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development proposed a blueprint for cracking down on tax-dodging strategies used by companies such as Google Inc. (GOOG), Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | America Goes It Alone on High Corporate Taxes
What happens when the international economy changes but tax policy does not? That is a central question facing the United States and Japan, which have the highest corporate tax rates in the industrialized world. The need for action is acute, and emerging trends in global commerce demonstrate the need for tax policies that align with those trends.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
FOX News | Unemployment rates rise in most states as more Americans look for work; 37 states gain jobs
Unemployment rates rose in 28 U.S. states last month, partly because more Americans started looking for work and not all of them found jobs.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
NY Post | BLS number is BS
Keith Hall believes the US economy is a lot sicker than the 7.6 percent unemployment rate would lead you to believe. And he should know.
Washington Times | The coming employment retrenchment
The White House and its liberal allies in the news media have launched an all-out campaign to peddle Obamacare to an understandably doubting public.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Western States Lead In Job Creation
Of the 10 states with the fastest employment growth over the past year, nine are west of the Mississippi.
Library of Economics | Four Big Facts About Hiring and IQ
Though data is spotty, 10-30% of large U.S. employers freely admit that they use cognitive ability tests to make hiring decisions.
NY Times | Labor Force Participation Is Not Coming Back
Lots of people lost jobs during the Great Recession. In the aftermath, the great surprise has been how few are looking for new jobs.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Student loan deal could move quickly
A compromise to roll back the recent doubling of student loan rates could move swiftly through Congress, keeping students from having to pay a higher rate at the start of the school year.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | ‘Hope springs eternal’ for budget deal, Boehner says
It’s hard to tell how optimistic House Speaker John Boehner actually is about a big budget deal coming together, but he indicated Thursday that he’s at least not ruling it out.