News
Bloomberg | German Industrial Production Increased in February
German industrial output rebounded in February, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is stabilizing after a contraction in the fourth quarter.
Washington Times | Fracking support becomes bipartisan as both parties see economic benefits
As he weighs whether to allow fracking in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo is under intense pressure from the oil and gas industry, Republican lawmakers and long-struggling communities eager to see the drilling technique jump-start the state’s economy.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | The Stock Markets Are Forecasting Economic Stagnation, Not Recovery
A number of commentators, some of them friends, have been declaring that current stock market valuations prove that the economy is in full recovery. They think that the market reflects high levels of optimism about the future and that this means that the economy is in a V-shaped recovery, or that we’re about to enter a phase of strong economic growth. Not so fast.
Washington Post | Myths of post-industrial America
We live in a post-industrial age, defined more by Google than by General Motors. The term “post-industrial society” was first popularized by the sociologist Daniel Bell (1919-2011) in a 1973 book, and the change has generally been a boon.
Washington Times | The sleepy economy
Not even Vice President Joe Biden, the barker of bonhomie who sees something good in just about any headline, can put a gloss on Friday’s news: The economy created a net of only 88,000 jobs in March, not the 200,000 or so expected. Unemployment is “down” to 7.6 percent, but only because so many jobseekers have abandoned hope in the face of daunting odds.
Blogs
Economist | Rationalising the ridiculous
Markets may turn out to be wrong, or they may turn out to be right. Given uncertainty, however, it would be wrong to call them out-and-out irrational.
Market Watch | Will retail sales join the spring swoon?
Manufacturers are growing more leery. Service providers are more cautious. Companies are slowing their hiring.
WSJ | Home-Price Gains May Be Overstated
After controlling for certain technical factors, home prices on a national basis in 2012 probably rose by 3% to 4%, rather than the 7% to 8% reported by key gauges such as the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index, the Goldman analysts said.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Health Care
News
Politico | Exchanges, but not as envisioned
Even though the Obama administration is delaying a key component of federally run small-business exchanges, some states building their own exchanges say they’re on track to have the program running next year.
WSJ | Some Small Businesses Opt for the Health-Care Penalty
Small-business owners across the U.S. are bracing for the health-care law that kicks in next year, fearing it will increase the cost of providing insurance to employees.
Econ Comments & Analysis
WSJ | Reflections of a Medical Ex-Practitioner
A fundamental principle in medicine is that if you get the diagnosis wrong, you'll probably apply the wrong therapy. A corollary is that if the therapy isn't working, increasing the dose may make things worse. That's where we are with ObamaCare.
Politico | Exchanges, but not as envisioned
Even though the Obama administration is delaying a key component of federally run small-business exchanges, some states building their own exchanges say they’re on track to have the program running next year.
WSJ | Some Small Businesses Opt for the Health-Care Penalty
Small-business owners across the U.S. are bracing for the health-care law that kicks in next year, fearing it will increase the cost of providing insurance to employees.
Econ Comments & Analysis
WSJ | Reflections of a Medical Ex-Practitioner
A fundamental principle in medicine is that if you get the diagnosis wrong, you'll probably apply the wrong therapy. A corollary is that if the therapy isn't working, increasing the dose may make things worse. That's where we are with ObamaCare.
Monetary
News
National Journal | Fights Over Fed Likely to Continue if Yellen Becomes Next Chairman
The central bank is not doing enough to combat the nation's sky-high unemployment, the Left says. The unprecedented steps the Fed has taken to combat unemployment risk running up inflation, the Right says. "What about the other half of the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability?" they ask as they watch Bernanke announce round after round of stimulus.
Bloomberg | Fed Faces Risk of Fourth Summer Slump While Pushing QE
During the past three years, the Fed planned to cut accommodation early in the year only to boost it after economic growth lagged behind its forecasts. Determined not to repeat the error, the Fed will probably push on with $85 billion in monthly bond purchases through the summer, said Drew Matus, a former Federal Reserve Bank of New York economist.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Real Clear Markets | The Fed Is Quantitatively Easing Americans Out of Their Jobs
As the months go by, it is becoming clear that the Federal Reserve's "QE3" program, which is supposed to be "doing something" about unemployment, is having the exact opposite effect. We can only wonder how long it will take Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to realize this.
Forbes | Monetarism and Keynesianism: Identical Sides of the Same Adolescent Coin
A popular story promoted by Monetarist School thinkers is the one about Milton Friedman discrediting the Phillips Curve. For those not familiar with the latter, it’s the incorrect theory embraced by Keynesians that says economic growth is the cause of inflation.
National Journal | Fights Over Fed Likely to Continue if Yellen Becomes Next Chairman
The central bank is not doing enough to combat the nation's sky-high unemployment, the Left says. The unprecedented steps the Fed has taken to combat unemployment risk running up inflation, the Right says. "What about the other half of the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability?" they ask as they watch Bernanke announce round after round of stimulus.
Bloomberg | Fed Faces Risk of Fourth Summer Slump While Pushing QE
During the past three years, the Fed planned to cut accommodation early in the year only to boost it after economic growth lagged behind its forecasts. Determined not to repeat the error, the Fed will probably push on with $85 billion in monthly bond purchases through the summer, said Drew Matus, a former Federal Reserve Bank of New York economist.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Real Clear Markets | The Fed Is Quantitatively Easing Americans Out of Their Jobs
As the months go by, it is becoming clear that the Federal Reserve's "QE3" program, which is supposed to be "doing something" about unemployment, is having the exact opposite effect. We can only wonder how long it will take Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to realize this.
Forbes | Monetarism and Keynesianism: Identical Sides of the Same Adolescent Coin
A popular story promoted by Monetarist School thinkers is the one about Milton Friedman discrediting the Phillips Curve. For those not familiar with the latter, it’s the incorrect theory embraced by Keynesians that says economic growth is the cause of inflation.
Taxes
Econ Comments & Analysis
WSJ | Tax Reform Is Very Much Alive and Doable
Every week Congress has been in session for the past two years, one of us has made the short walk across the Capitol to the other's office. We crowd into a room with our policy experts to chart a path to our mutual goal—comprehensive tax reform.
Blogs
Library of Economics | Jared Bernstein Gets Efficiency Wrong
Jared Bernstein, formerly chief economist for Vice-President Joe Biden, argues for a measure that I agree with him on, but ends up arguing, on one criterion, against the measure. He doesn't know that this argument goes the other way, which is why I titled this post as I did.
WSJ | Tax Reform Is Very Much Alive and Doable
Every week Congress has been in session for the past two years, one of us has made the short walk across the Capitol to the other's office. We crowd into a room with our policy experts to chart a path to our mutual goal—comprehensive tax reform.
Blogs
Library of Economics | Jared Bernstein Gets Efficiency Wrong
Jared Bernstein, formerly chief economist for Vice-President Joe Biden, argues for a measure that I agree with him on, but ends up arguing, on one criterion, against the measure. He doesn't know that this argument goes the other way, which is why I titled this post as I did.
Employment
News
FOX News | Dropouts: Discouraged Americans are giving up the job hunt for school, retirement, disability
After a full year of fruitless job hunting, Natasha Baebler just gave up. She'd already abandoned hope of getting work in her field, counseling the disabled. But she couldn't land anything else, either — not even a job interview at a telephone call center.
CNBC | Why US Jobs Market Is Going to Get a Lot Worse
Weak U.S. jobs data on Friday confirmed the worst trading week this year for European and U.S. stocks, and now analysts are warning that investors should brace for further trouble ahead as fiscal tightening begins to take its toll.
Econ Comments & Analysis
AEI | Who lost the American worker?
Who lost the American worker? If the anemic employment recovery since the Great Recession’s end doesn’t prompt that question, perhaps the painful March jobs report finally will. Some context: If the economy were to produce 88,000 jobs every month, as it did last month, the labor market would never return to pre-recession employment levels. Like, ever. That paltry level of jobs more or less matches monthly labor-force growth.
Blogs
WSJ | Vital Signs Chart: Smaller Share of Population Working
One measure of the nation’s jobs picture shows the last recession’s toll. The employment-to-population ratio, which measures the proportion of the adult population with jobs, was 58.5% in March. In 1979, the ratio climbed past 60%, a level seen most recently in 2009. Demographics also are a factor in the decline: An aging population means many people have retired.
FOX News | Dropouts: Discouraged Americans are giving up the job hunt for school, retirement, disability
After a full year of fruitless job hunting, Natasha Baebler just gave up. She'd already abandoned hope of getting work in her field, counseling the disabled. But she couldn't land anything else, either — not even a job interview at a telephone call center.
CNBC | Why US Jobs Market Is Going to Get a Lot Worse
Weak U.S. jobs data on Friday confirmed the worst trading week this year for European and U.S. stocks, and now analysts are warning that investors should brace for further trouble ahead as fiscal tightening begins to take its toll.
Econ Comments & Analysis
AEI | Who lost the American worker?
Who lost the American worker? If the anemic employment recovery since the Great Recession’s end doesn’t prompt that question, perhaps the painful March jobs report finally will. Some context: If the economy were to produce 88,000 jobs every month, as it did last month, the labor market would never return to pre-recession employment levels. Like, ever. That paltry level of jobs more or less matches monthly labor-force growth.
Blogs
WSJ | Vital Signs Chart: Smaller Share of Population Working
One measure of the nation’s jobs picture shows the last recession’s toll. The employment-to-population ratio, which measures the proportion of the adult population with jobs, was 58.5% in March. In 1979, the ratio climbed past 60%, a level seen most recently in 2009. Demographics also are a factor in the decline: An aging population means many people have retired.
Budget
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | A winning budget gambit
Democrats must hope Republicans don’t follow their sequestration victory with one even bigger. To do so, Republicans would need to look no further than President Obama’s budget vulnerability. With this year’s budget coming more than two months late, and none of his ever having come close to balancing, Mr. Obama’s weakness offers Republicans a chance to replicate their recent success — and on an even higher level.
AEI | Giving bank depositors 'haircuts' sets a bad precedent
"Bailing in" implies the opposite of governments' "bailing out" careless investors or bank managers with public money. Specifically, "bailing in" substitutes appropriate losses by "at risk" investors for injections of taxpayer funds to rescue them.
Heritage Foundation | House and Senate Budgets: A First Step Toward Restoring Congressional Budgeting
It is no great achievement for lawmakers simply to do what the law requires of them. Still, the passage of budget resolutions last month by both houses of Congress—after the Senate’s four years of neglect—does seem noteworthy. The question now is: What next?
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Federal Disaster Relief Spending Out of Control
The world’s second-largest reinsurer, Swiss Re, reports “that natural catastrophes and man-made disasters cost the insurance industry $77 billion in 2012.”
Washington Times | A winning budget gambit
Democrats must hope Republicans don’t follow their sequestration victory with one even bigger. To do so, Republicans would need to look no further than President Obama’s budget vulnerability. With this year’s budget coming more than two months late, and none of his ever having come close to balancing, Mr. Obama’s weakness offers Republicans a chance to replicate their recent success — and on an even higher level.
AEI | Giving bank depositors 'haircuts' sets a bad precedent
"Bailing in" implies the opposite of governments' "bailing out" careless investors or bank managers with public money. Specifically, "bailing in" substitutes appropriate losses by "at risk" investors for injections of taxpayer funds to rescue them.
Heritage Foundation | House and Senate Budgets: A First Step Toward Restoring Congressional Budgeting
It is no great achievement for lawmakers simply to do what the law requires of them. Still, the passage of budget resolutions last month by both houses of Congress—after the Senate’s four years of neglect—does seem noteworthy. The question now is: What next?
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Federal Disaster Relief Spending Out of Control
The world’s second-largest reinsurer, Swiss Re, reports “that natural catastrophes and man-made disasters cost the insurance industry $77 billion in 2012.”
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