News
CNN Money | Income surged in December, amid fiscal cliff fears
Income and savings surged in December but the effect is probably temporary, due mostly to Americans trying to avoid paying higher taxes in the new year.
Bloomberg | Business Activity in U.S. Grew More Than Forecast in January
Business activity in the U.S. expanded more than forecast in January, a sign manufacturing picked up at the start of the year.
CNN Money | FHA to hike premiums on mortgages
Government-insured mortgages are about to get more expensive.
Bloomberg | Consumer Comfort in U.S. Falls for Fourth Straight Week
Consumer confidence fell again last week, raising the risk that the payroll tax increase that kicked in at the start of the year will make it difficult to sustain a pickup in spending.
Econ Comments & Analysis
WSJ | As Contractions Go . . .
The federal government reported Wednesday that the U.S. economy shrank in the last quarter of 2012, but not to worry. The report is better than it sounds, the stock market is rocking, and in any event the Federal Reserve will take the news as another reason to keep both feet pressed firmly on the monetary accelerator.
Bloomberg | R-Word For U.S. Economy in 2013 is Rebound Not Recession
The “R” word that economists were using after yesterday’s news that U.S. gross domestic product contracted in the fourth quarter was rebound, not recession.
WSJ | America's Growing Minerals Deficit
After every election, there's a mad scramble in Washington over the must-make-it-happen agenda for the newly inaugurated president and Congress. There are welcome signs from the White House's own Material Genome Initiative that securing America's access to critical metals and minerals will be high on the list.
Forbes | President Obama's Economic Growth Is Unworthy of U.S. Tradition: What's the Matter?
Last November, the political science models that predict presidential-election winners broke. As has long been taught, no incumbent ever wins re-election after presiding over weak recovery from a steep recession and 1.5% yearly economic growth—namely President Obama’s record over his first term in office.
WSJ | If We Can't Blame Uncertainty, What Is Weighing On Growth?
Does a whole lot of uncertainty about government spending and taxes and raising the prospect that the U.S. Treasury won't have cash to pay the bills hold back an economy otherwise ready to take off?
Blogs
AEI | No, the negative fourth-quarter GDP report doesn’t prove ‘austerity’ is killing the US economy
US economic output fell at a 0.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, adjusted for inflation. Blame spending cuts, say the Democrats. Blame Republican “austerity.” And one more thing: Stop the sequester.
CNN Money | FHA to hike premiums on mortgages
Government-insured mortgages are about to get more expensive.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Health Care
News
Politico | Kevin Brady to take on Medicare challenges
Congress has done little but bicker over Medicare for the past few years, but Rep. Kevin Brady still thinks he has a shot at fixing the program now that he’s leading a powerful health panel.
Blogs
CATO | Goldwater Attorney: ObamaCare-Compliant Exchange Would Violate Idaho’s Health Care Freedom Act
Idaho Gov. Butch Otter (R), who added Idaho to the multi-state challenge that sought to overturn ObamaCare as unconstitutional, now supports helping the Obama administration implement the law by establishing and funding a health insurance “exchange.”
Politico | Kevin Brady to take on Medicare challenges
Congress has done little but bicker over Medicare for the past few years, but Rep. Kevin Brady still thinks he has a shot at fixing the program now that he’s leading a powerful health panel.
Blogs
CATO | Goldwater Attorney: ObamaCare-Compliant Exchange Would Violate Idaho’s Health Care Freedom Act
Idaho Gov. Butch Otter (R), who added Idaho to the multi-state challenge that sought to overturn ObamaCare as unconstitutional, now supports helping the Obama administration implement the law by establishing and funding a health insurance “exchange.”
Monetary
News
Bloomberg | Bernanke Dissatisfied With Growth Will Press on With QE Pace
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he isn’t close to easing up on $85 billion in monthly bond purchases to spur a stalled economy and bring down 7.8 percent unemployment.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Businessweek | The Fed's Threat to the Stock Rally
By the time you read this, it may already have happened: The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index may have passed 1,565, the October 2007 peak the market has been climbing toward since the financial crisis bottomed out in March 2009.
Bloomberg | Bernanke Dissatisfied With Growth Will Press on With QE Pace
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he isn’t close to easing up on $85 billion in monthly bond purchases to spur a stalled economy and bring down 7.8 percent unemployment.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Businessweek | The Fed's Threat to the Stock Rally
By the time you read this, it may already have happened: The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index may have passed 1,565, the October 2007 peak the market has been climbing toward since the financial crisis bottomed out in March 2009.
Taxes
News
WSJ | U.S. Is Preparing More Tax-Evasion Cases
The U.S. is expanding its crackdown of offshore tax evasion, preparing numerous criminal cases against suspected offenders, defense lawyers involved in the cases say.
Washington Times | Virginia may start an end to gas taxes
Even though traffic often grinds to a standstill on some of its biggest highways, Virginia is suddenly attracting intense nationwide attention.
CNBC | 'Rich Tax' Puts California on Risky Path: Expert
California's governor is betting the wealthy will grow wealthier still to help right his state's finances, a wager that is expected to help the budget in the short term, but leaves it at risk of a revenue slump if assets such as stocks lose value.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Fortune | Cut your exposure to Medicare taxes
As Congress tackles entitlement reform, affluent retirees will be stuck with a growing tax bill. Here's how to keep it in check.
Blogs
CATO | The Great Hillsdale College Debate: Flat Tax or Fair Tax?
I’m at Hillsdale College in Michigan for a conference on taxation. The event is called “The Federal Income Tax: A Centenary Consideration,” though I would have called it something like “100 Years of Misery from the IRS.”
WSJ | U.S. Is Preparing More Tax-Evasion Cases
The U.S. is expanding its crackdown of offshore tax evasion, preparing numerous criminal cases against suspected offenders, defense lawyers involved in the cases say.
Washington Times | Virginia may start an end to gas taxes
Even though traffic often grinds to a standstill on some of its biggest highways, Virginia is suddenly attracting intense nationwide attention.
CNBC | 'Rich Tax' Puts California on Risky Path: Expert
California's governor is betting the wealthy will grow wealthier still to help right his state's finances, a wager that is expected to help the budget in the short term, but leaves it at risk of a revenue slump if assets such as stocks lose value.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Fortune | Cut your exposure to Medicare taxes
As Congress tackles entitlement reform, affluent retirees will be stuck with a growing tax bill. Here's how to keep it in check.
Blogs
CATO | The Great Hillsdale College Debate: Flat Tax or Fair Tax?
I’m at Hillsdale College in Michigan for a conference on taxation. The event is called “The Federal Income Tax: A Centenary Consideration,” though I would have called it something like “100 Years of Misery from the IRS.”
Employment
News
CNN Money | Jobless claims bounce higher
Jobless claims bounced higher last week, after falling to a five-year low earlier in January.
Blogs
Politico | Time Inc. 'restructuring' begins: 500 axed
Time Inc. has started its long-anticipated "restructuring" of staff and will eliminate an estimated 500 jobs today, or roughly 6 percent of its workforce.
Library of Economics | Wasteful Hiring: When Does It Cut Profits?
The boss hires his worthless unemployed nephew for a summer job. Does that raise GDP or lower it? To keep things simple think of this as ex nihilo hiring: if not for this hire, the person wouldn't have been hired otherwise and if the boss doesn't hire the worthless nephew nobody else is going to get the job.
CNN Money | Jobless claims bounce higher
Jobless claims bounced higher last week, after falling to a five-year low earlier in January.
Blogs
Politico | Time Inc. 'restructuring' begins: 500 axed
Time Inc. has started its long-anticipated "restructuring" of staff and will eliminate an estimated 500 jobs today, or roughly 6 percent of its workforce.
Library of Economics | Wasteful Hiring: When Does It Cut Profits?
The boss hires his worthless unemployed nephew for a summer job. Does that raise GDP or lower it? To keep things simple think of this as ex nihilo hiring: if not for this hire, the person wouldn't have been hired otherwise and if the boss doesn't hire the worthless nephew nobody else is going to get the job.
Budget
News
National Journal | Senate to Vote on Debt Deal
The Democratic-controlled Senate is set to give final passage Thursday to a bill allowing the U.S. Treasury to keep borrowing money until May 19 and ward off the risk of default, putting off one battle as other fights loom with Republicans in upcoming weeks over automatic spending cuts and keeping the government operating.
WSJ | Treasury Posts Losses on TARP Auctions
The U.S. Treasury for the first time auctioned holdings in U.S. banks that had missed a series of dividend payments, allowing the government to close out financial-crisis era investments only at steep discounts.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Daily Caller | The spending sequester will grow the private economy
Today’s report of a 0.1 percent GDP decline for the fourth quarter came as a surprise to most forecasters. But it actually masks considerable strength in the private economy.
Politico | Most liberals still oppose benefit cuts
A broader look at liberal institutions and groups shows overwhelming opposition to many of the same “entitlement reforms” endorsed by these liberal and centrist think tanks featured in POLITICO.
Fortune | Fix the Debt isn't going anywhere
Even with the fiscal cliff in the rearview, Washington's CEO-backed anti-debt campaign still has the bandwith (and cash) to continue the crusade for a grand bargain on the budget.
LA Times | Kinsley: The debt debate
Wait. Stop. What are we arguing about? I hate to spoil the fun, but deficit hawks and deficit doves are actually in agreement about how this sucker should play out.
Blogs
Politico | A deficit hawk's courageous stand
Type the sentence(s) summarizing the link here.
National Journal | Senate to Vote on Debt Deal
The Democratic-controlled Senate is set to give final passage Thursday to a bill allowing the U.S. Treasury to keep borrowing money until May 19 and ward off the risk of default, putting off one battle as other fights loom with Republicans in upcoming weeks over automatic spending cuts and keeping the government operating.
WSJ | Treasury Posts Losses on TARP Auctions
The U.S. Treasury for the first time auctioned holdings in U.S. banks that had missed a series of dividend payments, allowing the government to close out financial-crisis era investments only at steep discounts.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Daily Caller | The spending sequester will grow the private economy
Today’s report of a 0.1 percent GDP decline for the fourth quarter came as a surprise to most forecasters. But it actually masks considerable strength in the private economy.
Politico | Most liberals still oppose benefit cuts
A broader look at liberal institutions and groups shows overwhelming opposition to many of the same “entitlement reforms” endorsed by these liberal and centrist think tanks featured in POLITICO.
Fortune | Fix the Debt isn't going anywhere
Even with the fiscal cliff in the rearview, Washington's CEO-backed anti-debt campaign still has the bandwith (and cash) to continue the crusade for a grand bargain on the budget.
LA Times | Kinsley: The debt debate
Wait. Stop. What are we arguing about? I hate to spoil the fun, but deficit hawks and deficit doves are actually in agreement about how this sucker should play out.
Blogs
Politico | A deficit hawk's courageous stand
Type the sentence(s) summarizing the link here.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
General Economics
News
CNN Money | Spain sinks deeper into recession
Spain's second recession in three years deepened in the fourth quarter of 2012, as domestic demand sank in the face of government spending cuts and record unemployment.
Bloomberg | Euro-Area Economic Confidence Rises More Than Forecast
Economic confidence in the euro area rose more than economists forecast in January, adding to signs that the 17-nation currency bloc may be emerging from a recession.
Bloomberg | Economy in U.S. Contracts as Defense Spending Slumps
The economy in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter, restrained by the biggest plunge in defense spending in four decades and dwindling inventory growth as household purchases picked up.
CNN Money | Regulations are killing my business
These small businesses are being squeezed by local regulations requiring specific licenses. All are fighting back with the help of the Institute for Justice, a civil liberties law firm.
Market Watch | U.S. ‘lacks’ payback plan for Ally bailout: report
The Treasury Department has no “concrete exit plan” for its taxpayer-infused investment in Ally Financial -- formerly known as GMAC -- and its lack of a strategy may be why it continues to be owned by the U.S. government more than four years after the peak of the 2008 crisis, a watchdog group said Wednesday.
CNN Money | Energy prices on the rise again
Energy prices have been rising fast. But not enough to derail the economic recovery. Not yet anyway.
CNBC | US Mortgage Applications Fall as Refi Demand Drops
Applications for U.S. home mortgages tumbled last week after three consecutive weeks of gains, with refinance demand slumping as interest rates rose, an industry group said on Wednesday.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | Obama’s path toward energy poverty
In his inaugural address last week, President Obama demonstrated that he is putting people at risk with misguided climate and energy policies.
Bloomberg | It’s Too Soon to Celebrate a Recovery
As the economy begins to show signs of strength, people naturally want to know, how long will the damage from the financial crisis linger? A new paper from the Bank of England suggests it may be much longer than we would like.
NBER | Experience Matters: Human Capital and Development Accounting
Using recently available large-sample micro data from 36 countries, we document that experience-earnings profiles are flatter in poor countries than in rich countries.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Colorado Energy Office Misspends Millions in Stimulus Funds
The Colorado Energy Office (CEO) misspent millions in stimulus funds and could not account for a variety of other financial statements, according to a new audit from the Colorado state auditor.
Calculated Risk | Comments on Q4 GDP and Investment
The Q4 GDP report was negative, with a 0.1% annualized decline in real GDP, and lower than the expected 1.0% annualized increase.
Café Hayek | Mark Steckbeck on Standards of Living
The Liberal Order‘s Mark Steckbeck sends this informative e-mail to me, in response to Mark Perry’s and my recent essay in the Wall Street Journal
CNN Money | Spain sinks deeper into recession
Spain's second recession in three years deepened in the fourth quarter of 2012, as domestic demand sank in the face of government spending cuts and record unemployment.
Bloomberg | Euro-Area Economic Confidence Rises More Than Forecast
Economic confidence in the euro area rose more than economists forecast in January, adding to signs that the 17-nation currency bloc may be emerging from a recession.
Bloomberg | Economy in U.S. Contracts as Defense Spending Slumps
The economy in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter, restrained by the biggest plunge in defense spending in four decades and dwindling inventory growth as household purchases picked up.
CNN Money | Regulations are killing my business
These small businesses are being squeezed by local regulations requiring specific licenses. All are fighting back with the help of the Institute for Justice, a civil liberties law firm.
Market Watch | U.S. ‘lacks’ payback plan for Ally bailout: report
The Treasury Department has no “concrete exit plan” for its taxpayer-infused investment in Ally Financial -- formerly known as GMAC -- and its lack of a strategy may be why it continues to be owned by the U.S. government more than four years after the peak of the 2008 crisis, a watchdog group said Wednesday.
CNN Money | Energy prices on the rise again
Energy prices have been rising fast. But not enough to derail the economic recovery. Not yet anyway.
CNBC | US Mortgage Applications Fall as Refi Demand Drops
Applications for U.S. home mortgages tumbled last week after three consecutive weeks of gains, with refinance demand slumping as interest rates rose, an industry group said on Wednesday.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | Obama’s path toward energy poverty
In his inaugural address last week, President Obama demonstrated that he is putting people at risk with misguided climate and energy policies.
Bloomberg | It’s Too Soon to Celebrate a Recovery
As the economy begins to show signs of strength, people naturally want to know, how long will the damage from the financial crisis linger? A new paper from the Bank of England suggests it may be much longer than we would like.
NBER | Experience Matters: Human Capital and Development Accounting
Using recently available large-sample micro data from 36 countries, we document that experience-earnings profiles are flatter in poor countries than in rich countries.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Colorado Energy Office Misspends Millions in Stimulus Funds
The Colorado Energy Office (CEO) misspent millions in stimulus funds and could not account for a variety of other financial statements, according to a new audit from the Colorado state auditor.
Calculated Risk | Comments on Q4 GDP and Investment
The Q4 GDP report was negative, with a 0.1% annualized decline in real GDP, and lower than the expected 1.0% annualized increase.
Café Hayek | Mark Steckbeck on Standards of Living
The Liberal Order‘s Mark Steckbeck sends this informative e-mail to me, in response to Mark Perry’s and my recent essay in the Wall Street Journal
Health Care
News
Politico | The invisible health-care panel
A panel charged with helping devise solutions to the nation’s health care workforce crisis is having a workforce crisis of its own: It hasn’t been funded, and it’s never met.
Politico | The invisible health-care panel
A panel charged with helping devise solutions to the nation’s health care workforce crisis is having a workforce crisis of its own: It hasn’t been funded, and it’s never met.
Monetary
News
Bloomberg | Rising Bond Yields Show Bernanke QE Converges With Growth
Since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke in September began a third round of asset purchases aimed at lowering interest rates and spurring growth, bond yields have climbed. The trend may signal that his program is working.
Blogs
Economist | How should central banks think about the financial system?
Most of what we call money is actually short-term debt created by private financial firms, like bank deposits, rather than anything directly controlled by the government through monetary policy, like currency.
WSJ | What to Expect From Fed
The Federal Reserve wraps up its first meeting of the year today, and the 2:15 p.m. statement is expected to change little from the last time policymakers gathered.
Economist | Say when
The Federal Open Market Committee will be meeting today and tomorrow and is expected to announce a continuation of the open-ended purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities begun last year.
Bloomberg | Rising Bond Yields Show Bernanke QE Converges With Growth
Since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke in September began a third round of asset purchases aimed at lowering interest rates and spurring growth, bond yields have climbed. The trend may signal that his program is working.
Blogs
Economist | How should central banks think about the financial system?
Most of what we call money is actually short-term debt created by private financial firms, like bank deposits, rather than anything directly controlled by the government through monetary policy, like currency.
WSJ | What to Expect From Fed
The Federal Reserve wraps up its first meeting of the year today, and the 2:15 p.m. statement is expected to change little from the last time policymakers gathered.
Economist | Say when
The Federal Open Market Committee will be meeting today and tomorrow and is expected to announce a continuation of the open-ended purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities begun last year.
Taxes
News
CNN Money | Get ready to file your taxes
Wednesday marks the beginning of tax season, when most Americans can submit their returns to Uncle Sam.
Econ Comments & Analysis
WSJ | The State Tax Reformers
Washington may be a tax reform wasteland, but out in the states the action is hot and heavy. Nine states—including such fast-growing places as Florida, Tennessee and Texas—currently have no income tax, and the race is on to see which will be the tenth, and perhaps the 11th and 12th.
CNN Money | Get ready to file your taxes
Wednesday marks the beginning of tax season, when most Americans can submit their returns to Uncle Sam.
Econ Comments & Analysis
WSJ | The State Tax Reformers
Washington may be a tax reform wasteland, but out in the states the action is hot and heavy. Nine states—including such fast-growing places as Florida, Tennessee and Texas—currently have no income tax, and the race is on to see which will be the tenth, and perhaps the 11th and 12th.
Employment
News
Bloomberg | Economy in U.S. Contracts as Defense Spending Slumps
The economy in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter, restrained by the biggest plunge in defense spending in four decades and dwindling inventory growth as household purchases picked up.
Blogs
WSJ | Small Business Tops in Job Creation, but Also Job Cuts
Looking for a job? Try applying at small companies. Want a steady job? It might be better to target a big one.
Bloomberg | Economy in U.S. Contracts as Defense Spending Slumps
The economy in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter, restrained by the biggest plunge in defense spending in four decades and dwindling inventory growth as household purchases picked up.
Blogs
WSJ | Small Business Tops in Job Creation, but Also Job Cuts
Looking for a job? Try applying at small companies. Want a steady job? It might be better to target a big one.
Budget
Econ Comments & Analysis
AEI | There certainly is a difference between pink unicorns and spending cuts
House Republicans were wise to suspend the debt ceiling until the middle of May, effectively resequencing the series of upcoming fights over the federal budget. They are now poised to make their stand in March, using pressure points provided by the sequester - the across-the-board cuts to defense and non-defense discretionary spending - and the expiration of the stopgap measure currently used to fund the government.
CATO | The Debt Deniers’ Fantasy
It’s not quite on a par with 9/11 truthers or Obama birthers, but recently a number of liberal commentators have descended into the fever swamps of denialism by rejecting the most basic facts about our debt and deficit. Mind you, they are not arguing about the best policies to reduce the debt — taxe hikes vs. spending cuts — but actually denying that the problem exists at all.
AEI | There certainly is a difference between pink unicorns and spending cuts
House Republicans were wise to suspend the debt ceiling until the middle of May, effectively resequencing the series of upcoming fights over the federal budget. They are now poised to make their stand in March, using pressure points provided by the sequester - the across-the-board cuts to defense and non-defense discretionary spending - and the expiration of the stopgap measure currently used to fund the government.
CATO | The Debt Deniers’ Fantasy
It’s not quite on a par with 9/11 truthers or Obama birthers, but recently a number of liberal commentators have descended into the fever swamps of denialism by rejecting the most basic facts about our debt and deficit. Mind you, they are not arguing about the best policies to reduce the debt — taxe hikes vs. spending cuts — but actually denying that the problem exists at all.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
General Economics
News
AOL Energy | Everyone Knows Its Price, But How Much do You Really Know About Gasoline?
Your favorite Exxon station is very likely not owned or operated by Exxon and the same is true for the rest of the major oil companies.
Bloomberg | Consumer Confidence in U.S. Falls to Lowest Level Since 2011
Confidence among U.S. consumers declined more than forecast in January, reaching the lowest level in more than a year as higher payroll taxes took a bigger bite out of Americans’ paychecks.
Washington Times | Study: Incomes in open-shop states higher, after adjusting for living costs
Claims by union proponents that union-shop states beget higher incomes forget one little detail: the cost of living.
Washington Post | Housing emerges as economic bright spot after years in the dark
The nation’s housing market is surging again after years of historic declines, and the unique forces powering its return could last well into 2013.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | Obama’s America looks a lot like the EU
Almost a decade ago, Europeans and many progressive Americans were lamenting how the United States was going to miss out on the 21st-century paradigm symbolized by the robust European Union. Neanderthal Americans were importing ever more oil while waging a costly “war on terror” and fighting conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our budget deficit in 2003 hit $374 billion.
Washington Times | The pipeline to change the direction of the economy
With the swift approval of one project that science has proved time and time again to be safe, our country has the opportunity to put more than 20,000 unemployed Americans back to work, pour hundreds of millions of dollars into our economy annually, and safely transport 830,000 barrels of North American oil daily from Alberta, Canada, through Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska to refineries located on the Gulf Coast.
Gallup | Healthcare Costs, Taxes Worry U.S. Small Businesses Most
More than half of U.S. small-business owners say healthcare costs (54%) and taxes on small businesses (53%) are hurting their operating environment "a lot," making these the top two concerns among eight issues tested in a January Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business survey.
Mercatus | More Government Spending Won't Reduce Poverty
Despite unprecedented levels of government spending to help low-income Americans, a record 46 million people in the United States are living in poverty. In 2011, two thirds of the working-age poor were unemployed for the entire year.
NBER | When Is There a Strong Transfer Risk from the Sovereigns to the Corporates? Property Rights Gaps and CDS Spreads
When a sovereign faces the risk of debt default, it may be tempted to expropriate the private sector. This may be one reason for why international investment in private companies has to take into account the sovereign risk.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Income Inequality: Fretting over Success
World elites are worried about something that, in and of itself, is not a problem: income inequality.
WSJ | Companies Ignored Cliff Chatter, but Taxes, Spending Cuts Will Have Real Bite
Monday’s U.S. durable-goods report suggests that — despite all the chatter about uncertainty and the fiscal cliff — business executives ignored their misgivings about Washington and went ahead with capital-expenditure plans.
WSJ | U.S. Retail Sales Growth Expected to Pull Back in 2013
U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 3.4% this year, the slowest rate since 2010, as consumers lower spending because of a tax bite to their paychecks and bickering among policymakers over fiscal matters, according to the industry’s biggest trade group.
Heritage Foundation | It’s Time to Stop Picking Winners and Losers in the Energy Industry
Representative Mike Pompeo (R–KS) hopes his new bill calling for the repeal of all energy tax credits on both conventional and renewable energy sources will level the playing field for energy producers and consumers and prevent the government from picking “winners and losers.”
Library of Economics | Boettke on Living Economics
I enjoyed the latest Econtalk interview, the one with Peter Boettke. They're discussing Boettke's latest book, Living Economics.
AOL Energy | Everyone Knows Its Price, But How Much do You Really Know About Gasoline?
Your favorite Exxon station is very likely not owned or operated by Exxon and the same is true for the rest of the major oil companies.
Bloomberg | Consumer Confidence in U.S. Falls to Lowest Level Since 2011
Confidence among U.S. consumers declined more than forecast in January, reaching the lowest level in more than a year as higher payroll taxes took a bigger bite out of Americans’ paychecks.
Washington Times | Study: Incomes in open-shop states higher, after adjusting for living costs
Claims by union proponents that union-shop states beget higher incomes forget one little detail: the cost of living.
Washington Post | Housing emerges as economic bright spot after years in the dark
The nation’s housing market is surging again after years of historic declines, and the unique forces powering its return could last well into 2013.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | Obama’s America looks a lot like the EU
Almost a decade ago, Europeans and many progressive Americans were lamenting how the United States was going to miss out on the 21st-century paradigm symbolized by the robust European Union. Neanderthal Americans were importing ever more oil while waging a costly “war on terror” and fighting conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our budget deficit in 2003 hit $374 billion.
Washington Times | The pipeline to change the direction of the economy
With the swift approval of one project that science has proved time and time again to be safe, our country has the opportunity to put more than 20,000 unemployed Americans back to work, pour hundreds of millions of dollars into our economy annually, and safely transport 830,000 barrels of North American oil daily from Alberta, Canada, through Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska to refineries located on the Gulf Coast.
Gallup | Healthcare Costs, Taxes Worry U.S. Small Businesses Most
More than half of U.S. small-business owners say healthcare costs (54%) and taxes on small businesses (53%) are hurting their operating environment "a lot," making these the top two concerns among eight issues tested in a January Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business survey.
Mercatus | More Government Spending Won't Reduce Poverty
Despite unprecedented levels of government spending to help low-income Americans, a record 46 million people in the United States are living in poverty. In 2011, two thirds of the working-age poor were unemployed for the entire year.
NBER | When Is There a Strong Transfer Risk from the Sovereigns to the Corporates? Property Rights Gaps and CDS Spreads
When a sovereign faces the risk of debt default, it may be tempted to expropriate the private sector. This may be one reason for why international investment in private companies has to take into account the sovereign risk.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Income Inequality: Fretting over Success
World elites are worried about something that, in and of itself, is not a problem: income inequality.
WSJ | Companies Ignored Cliff Chatter, but Taxes, Spending Cuts Will Have Real Bite
Monday’s U.S. durable-goods report suggests that — despite all the chatter about uncertainty and the fiscal cliff — business executives ignored their misgivings about Washington and went ahead with capital-expenditure plans.
WSJ | U.S. Retail Sales Growth Expected to Pull Back in 2013
U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 3.4% this year, the slowest rate since 2010, as consumers lower spending because of a tax bite to their paychecks and bickering among policymakers over fiscal matters, according to the industry’s biggest trade group.
Heritage Foundation | It’s Time to Stop Picking Winners and Losers in the Energy Industry
Representative Mike Pompeo (R–KS) hopes his new bill calling for the repeal of all energy tax credits on both conventional and renewable energy sources will level the playing field for energy producers and consumers and prevent the government from picking “winners and losers.”
Library of Economics | Boettke on Living Economics
I enjoyed the latest Econtalk interview, the one with Peter Boettke. They're discussing Boettke's latest book, Living Economics.
Health Care
News
Politico | States rethink high-risk-pool plans
When the health exchanges open next year, they will cover some of the sickest and costliest patients, people who cannot easily get insurance precisely because they are so likely to run up bills that no insurer would want to be on the hook for.
Blogs
CATO | How Firms Will Adapt to Avoid ObamaCare’s Mandates (and Drive up Its Cost)
Thousands of small businesses across the U.S. are desperately looking for a way to escape their own fiscal cliff. That’s because ObamaCare is forcing them to cover their employees’ health care or pay a fine—either of which will cut into profits and stymie future investment and growth…
Politico | States rethink high-risk-pool plans
When the health exchanges open next year, they will cover some of the sickest and costliest patients, people who cannot easily get insurance precisely because they are so likely to run up bills that no insurer would want to be on the hook for.
Blogs
CATO | How Firms Will Adapt to Avoid ObamaCare’s Mandates (and Drive up Its Cost)
Thousands of small businesses across the U.S. are desperately looking for a way to escape their own fiscal cliff. That’s because ObamaCare is forcing them to cover their employees’ health care or pay a fine—either of which will cut into profits and stymie future investment and growth…
Monetary
News
Bloomberg | Bernanke Seen Buying $1.14 Trillion in Assets in 2014
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s latest round of bond buying will reach $1.14 trillion before he ends the program in the first quarter of 2014, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
CNN Money | Meet the Fed's newest voters
The Federal Reserve will shake up its roster at its meeting this week, just as it does at the beginning of every year.
CNBC | No Wall Street Consensus on When & How QE Ends
Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to remain highly aggressive throughout 2013 but is divided over when quantitative easing will end and how it will be stopped, according to the January CNBC Fed Survey.
Econ Comments & Analysis
WSJ | Fed Policy Is a Drag on the Economy
As they meet this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues will be looking at an economic recovery that has been far weaker than expected. Early in 2010 they predicted that growth in 2012 would be a robust 4%. It turned out to be a disappointing 2%. And as the recovery fell short of their expectations, they continued and then doubled down on the emergency interventions used in the panic in 2008.
Mercatus | Evaluating Risk-Based Capital Regulation
The standard capital ratio of equity over assets has long been used as an important indicator of bank risk. Banks with more equity are less affected by asset depreciation than are other banks because a drop in the value of their assets affects only their equity and not their liabilities.
Bloomberg | Bernanke Seen Buying $1.14 Trillion in Assets in 2014
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s latest round of bond buying will reach $1.14 trillion before he ends the program in the first quarter of 2014, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
CNN Money | Meet the Fed's newest voters
The Federal Reserve will shake up its roster at its meeting this week, just as it does at the beginning of every year.
CNBC | No Wall Street Consensus on When & How QE Ends
Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to remain highly aggressive throughout 2013 but is divided over when quantitative easing will end and how it will be stopped, according to the January CNBC Fed Survey.
Econ Comments & Analysis
WSJ | Fed Policy Is a Drag on the Economy
As they meet this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues will be looking at an economic recovery that has been far weaker than expected. Early in 2010 they predicted that growth in 2012 would be a robust 4%. It turned out to be a disappointing 2%. And as the recovery fell short of their expectations, they continued and then doubled down on the emergency interventions used in the panic in 2008.
Mercatus | Evaluating Risk-Based Capital Regulation
The standard capital ratio of equity over assets has long been used as an important indicator of bank risk. Banks with more equity are less affected by asset depreciation than are other banks because a drop in the value of their assets affects only their equity and not their liabilities.
Taxes
Econ Comments & Analysis
Real Clear Markets | 35% Is Way Too High For Corporate Taxes
If there's one policy agreement between Republicans and Democrats, it's that the 35% corporate tax rate in the United States should be reduced to 28% or 25%. The current rate, highest in the advanced industrial world, disincentivizes investment and encourages corporations to relocate overseas.
Real Clear Markets | 35% Is Way Too High For Corporate Taxes
If there's one policy agreement between Republicans and Democrats, it's that the 35% corporate tax rate in the United States should be reduced to 28% or 25%. The current rate, highest in the advanced industrial world, disincentivizes investment and encourages corporations to relocate overseas.
Employment
News
CNN Money | Unions in trouble
The slow, steady decline of unions continued in 2012, when membership shrank by nearly 400,000.
CNN Money | Unions in trouble
The slow, steady decline of unions continued in 2012, when membership shrank by nearly 400,000.
Budget
News
CNN Money | Automatic spending cuts more likely now
Chances are growing that the automatic, across-the-board spending cuts that no one thought would ever happen may soon take effect.
Politico | Debt ceiling fix could last until August
The next deadline for raising the nation’s borrowing limit may not come until August if the Senate passes the House-approved debt ceiling bill this week as scheduled, according to Capitol Hill sources.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | How President Obama Lost His Shirt to John Boehner
In retrospect, at the Battle at Fiscal Cliff, Boehner took President Obama to the cleaners. He did it suavely, without histrionics. While Obama churlishly, and in a politically amateurish manner, publicly strutted about having forced the Republicans to raise tax rates on “the wealthiest Americans” Boehner, quietly, was pocketing his winnings.
AEI | Trillion dollar deficits are sustainable for now, unfortunately
An abrupt spending sequester at a rate of about $110bn per year ($1.1tn over 10 years) scheduled to begin March 1 could cause a US recession, coming as it does on top of tax increases worth about 1.5 per cent of GDP enacted in January.
Blogs
CBO | CBO Now Plans To Release Budget and Economic Outlook on February 5
That report will include updated economic and budget projections that incorporate the effects of the legislation enacted at the beginning of the year, a revised economic forecast consistent with the budget projections, and other changes to CBO’s estimates.
CATO | Federal Withholding: One Budget or Two?
Along with increasing the debt ceiling to whatever level it reaches by May 18th, the bill would withhold the pay of members of Congress and senators if their respective bodies don’t pass a budget by the April 15th deadline found in the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.
CNN Money | Automatic spending cuts more likely now
Chances are growing that the automatic, across-the-board spending cuts that no one thought would ever happen may soon take effect.
Politico | Debt ceiling fix could last until August
The next deadline for raising the nation’s borrowing limit may not come until August if the Senate passes the House-approved debt ceiling bill this week as scheduled, according to Capitol Hill sources.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | How President Obama Lost His Shirt to John Boehner
In retrospect, at the Battle at Fiscal Cliff, Boehner took President Obama to the cleaners. He did it suavely, without histrionics. While Obama churlishly, and in a politically amateurish manner, publicly strutted about having forced the Republicans to raise tax rates on “the wealthiest Americans” Boehner, quietly, was pocketing his winnings.
AEI | Trillion dollar deficits are sustainable for now, unfortunately
An abrupt spending sequester at a rate of about $110bn per year ($1.1tn over 10 years) scheduled to begin March 1 could cause a US recession, coming as it does on top of tax increases worth about 1.5 per cent of GDP enacted in January.
Blogs
CBO | CBO Now Plans To Release Budget and Economic Outlook on February 5
That report will include updated economic and budget projections that incorporate the effects of the legislation enacted at the beginning of the year, a revised economic forecast consistent with the budget projections, and other changes to CBO’s estimates.
CATO | Federal Withholding: One Budget or Two?
Along with increasing the debt ceiling to whatever level it reaches by May 18th, the bill would withhold the pay of members of Congress and senators if their respective bodies don’t pass a budget by the April 15th deadline found in the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.
Monday, January 28, 2013
General Economics
News
Bloomberg | Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Decreased 4.3%
Pending U.S. home sales declined in December for the first time since August, showing uneven progress in the housing market.
FOX Business | Uncertainty to Slow Growth of Retail Sales in 2013
Retail sales this year are expected to grow at a slower pace than in 2012 as continued political wrangling in Washington and the sluggish global economy will likely inject further uncertainty into the market and force shoppers to play defense.
CNN Money | Housing to drive economic growth (finally!)
The bursting of the housing bubble plunged the economy into a recession from which it has yet to fully recover. But economists say this could finally be the year that housing lifts us out of the doldrums.
Bloomberg | Durable-Goods Demand Jump Points to U.S. Factory Pickup: Economy
Orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose in December for an unprecedented fourth consecutive month, indicating manufacturing will keep improving in 2013.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | D.C.’s minimum wage folly
The nation’s post-election leftward lurch is gaining momentum. Six states, including New York and California, are agitating for a boost in the minimum wage. Sen. Tom Harkin, Iowa Democrat, wants the federal government to set a nationwide wage floor that will automatically rise each year.
Fortune | Another brick in the recovery road: Revenue rebounds
Analysts and investors are normally focused on corporate profits. But the most interesting sign of where the market and the economy are headed this earnings season could be coming from the top of corporate ledgers, rather than the bottom.
Washington Post | Is America in decline?
The subtext of political debate these days is that the United States is in decline — a proposition often portrayed as self-evident. The economy lacks dynamism; unemployment near 8 percent remains at recession levels. The president and his Republican critics barely talk to each other; stalemate seems unending. But what if America isn’t in decline?
Blogs
Library of Economics | Government Hiring: Raising GDP by Definition
GDP, Gross Domestic Product. The number gets a lot of attention, deservedly. You'd be foolish to use it as your sole economic statistic but you'd be just as foolish to ignore it and go with your gut.
Economist | The return of the bubble?
American housing markets are at long last recovering from the epic bust that began in 2006. Sales, prices, and construction all seem to have reached a cyclical bottom.
WSJ | Corporate Economists Have Rosier View of 2013
Corporate economists are becoming more optimistic about 2013, in a new survey predicting the U.S. economy will expand at a fairly robust pace this year despite continued uncertainty in Washington.
Library of Economics | Learning About the Economy: Statistics or Uncle-Asking?
You can get your information about the economy from admittedly fallible statistical relationships, or you can ask your uncle. I, for one, have never hesitated over this choice. But I fear there may be altogether too much uncle-asking in government circles in general, and in central banking circles in particular.
Calculated Risk | Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Strengthens" in January
Texas factory activity rose sharply in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Bloomberg | Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Decreased 4.3%
Pending U.S. home sales declined in December for the first time since August, showing uneven progress in the housing market.
FOX Business | Uncertainty to Slow Growth of Retail Sales in 2013
Retail sales this year are expected to grow at a slower pace than in 2012 as continued political wrangling in Washington and the sluggish global economy will likely inject further uncertainty into the market and force shoppers to play defense.
CNN Money | Housing to drive economic growth (finally!)
The bursting of the housing bubble plunged the economy into a recession from which it has yet to fully recover. But economists say this could finally be the year that housing lifts us out of the doldrums.
Bloomberg | Durable-Goods Demand Jump Points to U.S. Factory Pickup: Economy
Orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose in December for an unprecedented fourth consecutive month, indicating manufacturing will keep improving in 2013.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | D.C.’s minimum wage folly
The nation’s post-election leftward lurch is gaining momentum. Six states, including New York and California, are agitating for a boost in the minimum wage. Sen. Tom Harkin, Iowa Democrat, wants the federal government to set a nationwide wage floor that will automatically rise each year.
Fortune | Another brick in the recovery road: Revenue rebounds
Analysts and investors are normally focused on corporate profits. But the most interesting sign of where the market and the economy are headed this earnings season could be coming from the top of corporate ledgers, rather than the bottom.
Washington Post | Is America in decline?
The subtext of political debate these days is that the United States is in decline — a proposition often portrayed as self-evident. The economy lacks dynamism; unemployment near 8 percent remains at recession levels. The president and his Republican critics barely talk to each other; stalemate seems unending. But what if America isn’t in decline?
Blogs
Library of Economics | Government Hiring: Raising GDP by Definition
GDP, Gross Domestic Product. The number gets a lot of attention, deservedly. You'd be foolish to use it as your sole economic statistic but you'd be just as foolish to ignore it and go with your gut.
Economist | The return of the bubble?
American housing markets are at long last recovering from the epic bust that began in 2006. Sales, prices, and construction all seem to have reached a cyclical bottom.
WSJ | Corporate Economists Have Rosier View of 2013
Corporate economists are becoming more optimistic about 2013, in a new survey predicting the U.S. economy will expand at a fairly robust pace this year despite continued uncertainty in Washington.
Library of Economics | Learning About the Economy: Statistics or Uncle-Asking?
You can get your information about the economy from admittedly fallible statistical relationships, or you can ask your uncle. I, for one, have never hesitated over this choice. But I fear there may be altogether too much uncle-asking in government circles in general, and in central banking circles in particular.
Calculated Risk | Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Strengthens" in January
Texas factory activity rose sharply in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Health Care
News
Washington Times | Catholic University vows to pursue challenge to Obama health care law
Catholic University officials said Monday they have no plans to drop a legal challenge to a mandate requiring them to provide insurance coverage for contraception, after a federal judge dismissed their lawsuit against the Obama administration as not ready for consideration.
Blogs
CATO | Will ObamaCare’s Exchanges Be Ready in October? Will Anyone Show Up?
Ahead of 2014 and to get ready for open enrollment this fall, insurers are gauging their interest in participating in certain markets based partly on how [the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services] writes regulations governing the exchanges set to open on Jan. 1, 2014.
Café Hayek | Is the Quality-Adjusted Cost of Health-Care Higher Today than in 1980?
A statistician finds that people in 2013 spend much more on health-care than they did in 1980. Is it proper to conclude from this correct statistical finding that the rise in health-care expenditures – this rise in health-care costs – is a problem, a curse, something that we should lament?
Washington Times | Catholic University vows to pursue challenge to Obama health care law
Catholic University officials said Monday they have no plans to drop a legal challenge to a mandate requiring them to provide insurance coverage for contraception, after a federal judge dismissed their lawsuit against the Obama administration as not ready for consideration.
Blogs
CATO | Will ObamaCare’s Exchanges Be Ready in October? Will Anyone Show Up?
Ahead of 2014 and to get ready for open enrollment this fall, insurers are gauging their interest in participating in certain markets based partly on how [the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services] writes regulations governing the exchanges set to open on Jan. 1, 2014.
Café Hayek | Is the Quality-Adjusted Cost of Health-Care Higher Today than in 1980?
A statistician finds that people in 2013 spend much more on health-care than they did in 1980. Is it proper to conclude from this correct statistical finding that the rise in health-care expenditures – this rise in health-care costs – is a problem, a curse, something that we should lament?
Monetary
News
Bloomberg | Default Swaps Lift Sovereign Ratings From Brink of Junk
The risk of owning sovereign bonds has fallen to a two-year low, setting the stage for more gains by the riskiest government securities as the investors look to a healing world economy.
Market Watch | Bernanke still chasing the elusive recovery
As Fed Chief Ben Bernanke faces what may be his last year in office, his goal of a self-sustaining economic recovery may yet exceed his grasp.
WSJ | Fed Seems Set to Keep The Money Spigot Open
Federal Reserve officials are likely to continue their easy-money policies when they gather this week to weigh a mixed economic outlook and a recent run of low inflation.
CNBC | Interest Rates Are Climbing, but May Not Last Long
The sudden rise in interest rates to nine-month highs doesn't yet signal a turn, but that could change if Congress resolves the fiscal crisis hanging over the markets.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Bloomberg | ECB Says Impact of Proposed Banking Rules May Vary Across EU
The European Central Bank said it’s vital to evaluate the impact of planned new banking rules across the European Union as it may vary from one country to another.
Bloomberg | Default Swaps Lift Sovereign Ratings From Brink of Junk
The risk of owning sovereign bonds has fallen to a two-year low, setting the stage for more gains by the riskiest government securities as the investors look to a healing world economy.
Market Watch | Bernanke still chasing the elusive recovery
As Fed Chief Ben Bernanke faces what may be his last year in office, his goal of a self-sustaining economic recovery may yet exceed his grasp.
WSJ | Fed Seems Set to Keep The Money Spigot Open
Federal Reserve officials are likely to continue their easy-money policies when they gather this week to weigh a mixed economic outlook and a recent run of low inflation.
CNBC | Interest Rates Are Climbing, but May Not Last Long
The sudden rise in interest rates to nine-month highs doesn't yet signal a turn, but that could change if Congress resolves the fiscal crisis hanging over the markets.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Bloomberg | ECB Says Impact of Proposed Banking Rules May Vary Across EU
The European Central Bank said it’s vital to evaluate the impact of planned new banking rules across the European Union as it may vary from one country to another.
Taxes
News
Washington Times | Sandy relief bill eats up taxes on the rich
Congress is poised to clear the final $50 billion chunk of emergency aid for Superstorm Sandy relief Monday — and in one vote, it will have used up all the new tax money President Obama won by raising rates on the wealthy in the “fiscal cliff” deal.
Econ Comments & Analysis
AEI | Total tax-code termination?
It would be the ultimate fiscal cliff. A group of House Republicans wants to put an expiration date on the 75,000-page U.S. tax code. The Tax Code Termination Act would require the repeal of the entire code in 2017 — except for the bits dealing with Social Security and Medicare — with a new system ready to go for the following year.
Washington Times | Sandy relief bill eats up taxes on the rich
Congress is poised to clear the final $50 billion chunk of emergency aid for Superstorm Sandy relief Monday — and in one vote, it will have used up all the new tax money President Obama won by raising rates on the wealthy in the “fiscal cliff” deal.
Econ Comments & Analysis
AEI | Total tax-code termination?
It would be the ultimate fiscal cliff. A group of House Republicans wants to put an expiration date on the 75,000-page U.S. tax code. The Tax Code Termination Act would require the repeal of the entire code in 2017 — except for the bits dealing with Social Security and Medicare — with a new system ready to go for the following year.
Employment
News
CNN Money | Overeducated and underemployed
Getting a college degree still helps your chances of getting a job, but not necessarily a good one.
Washington Post | Job market probably kept making progress
The job market in the U.S. probably kept making headway in January even in the face of Washington’s budget battles, economists said before reports this week.
Washington Times | EPA rules kill Texas power plant, 3,900 jobs
Environmental Protection Agency regulations are snuffing out another power plant, Chase Power announced Wednesday, killing its $3 billion Corpus Christi, Texas, coal project and 3,900 prospective jobs.
Econ Comments & Analysis
CRS | Unemployment Insurance: Legislative Issues in the 113th Congress
The 113th Congress may face a number of issues related to currently available unemployment insurance programs: Unemployment Compensation (UC), temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08), and Extended Benefits (EB).
NBER | Do Labor Market Policies Have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment
This paper reports the results from a randomized experiment designed to evaluate the direct and indirect (displacement) impacts of job placement assistance on the labor market outcomes of young, educated job seekers in France. We use a two-step design.
AEI | A contracting workforce means tepid economic growth for advanced economies
The financial crisis hit at a very inopportune moment for western economies. Of course, there’s never a good time for a 5.1 percent of GDP contraction, which is what occurred in the U.S. over an eighteen-month period starting in late 2007 and continuing into mid-2009. But this was particularly bad timing because the U.S. and other advanced economies were already in for a rough ride over the coming two decades due to the unprecedented demographic transformation that is now well underway globally.
CNN Money | Overeducated and underemployed
Getting a college degree still helps your chances of getting a job, but not necessarily a good one.
Washington Post | Job market probably kept making progress
The job market in the U.S. probably kept making headway in January even in the face of Washington’s budget battles, economists said before reports this week.
Washington Times | EPA rules kill Texas power plant, 3,900 jobs
Environmental Protection Agency regulations are snuffing out another power plant, Chase Power announced Wednesday, killing its $3 billion Corpus Christi, Texas, coal project and 3,900 prospective jobs.
Econ Comments & Analysis
CRS | Unemployment Insurance: Legislative Issues in the 113th Congress
The 113th Congress may face a number of issues related to currently available unemployment insurance programs: Unemployment Compensation (UC), temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08), and Extended Benefits (EB).
NBER | Do Labor Market Policies Have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment
This paper reports the results from a randomized experiment designed to evaluate the direct and indirect (displacement) impacts of job placement assistance on the labor market outcomes of young, educated job seekers in France. We use a two-step design.
AEI | A contracting workforce means tepid economic growth for advanced economies
The financial crisis hit at a very inopportune moment for western economies. Of course, there’s never a good time for a 5.1 percent of GDP contraction, which is what occurred in the U.S. over an eighteen-month period starting in late 2007 and continuing into mid-2009. But this was particularly bad timing because the U.S. and other advanced economies were already in for a rough ride over the coming two decades due to the unprecedented demographic transformation that is now well underway globally.
Budget
News
CNN Money | Europe: No retreat from austerity
The message was unmistakable: The austerity push that has dominated Europe in the past year will continue even as the economy struggles.
CNN Money | How realistic is a balanced budget in 10 years?
House Republicans have put aside the debt ceiling as leverage in their fight for spending cuts. Now their goal is to balance the federal budget in 10 years.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | Near-term debt-limit risks to U.S. AAA fade: Fitch
The temporary suspension of the U.S. federal government's debt limit removes the near-term risk to the country's AAA rating, Fitch Ratings said Monday.
WSJ | The Case for Across-the-Board Spending Cuts
You know the cliché: America's fiscal condition might be grim, but lawmakers should avoid the "meat ax" of across-the-board spending cuts and instead use the "scalpel" of targeted reductions. The problem with this argument is that, given today's politics, it is nonsensical.
Politico | Budget's not high on Dems' to-do list
‘Show me your budget, and I will tell you what you value.” That’s what Joe Biden said last summer, and he meant it as a criticism of Republicans. The vice president’s comment raises a question: Where are the Democrats’ values? They’re in hiding, judging from their unwillingness to present any budget plans for almost four years.
Mercatus | The Debt Ceiling: Assets Available to Prevent Default
The debt ceiling, or the legal limit the federal government may borrow, is set currently at $16.4 trillion.[1] In his latest report, Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner predicts that the United States will need to increase the debt ceiling sometime between February 15, 2013, and early March 2013.
Blogs
CATO | The Sequester May Not Be ‘Fair,’ but It’s Real and It Would Slow the Growth of Government
Much to the horror of various interest groups, it appears that there will be a “sequester” on March 1. This means an automatic reduction in spending authority for selected programs (interest payments are exempt, as are most entitlement outlays).
CNN Money | Europe: No retreat from austerity
The message was unmistakable: The austerity push that has dominated Europe in the past year will continue even as the economy struggles.
CNN Money | How realistic is a balanced budget in 10 years?
House Republicans have put aside the debt ceiling as leverage in their fight for spending cuts. Now their goal is to balance the federal budget in 10 years.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | Near-term debt-limit risks to U.S. AAA fade: Fitch
The temporary suspension of the U.S. federal government's debt limit removes the near-term risk to the country's AAA rating, Fitch Ratings said Monday.
WSJ | The Case for Across-the-Board Spending Cuts
You know the cliché: America's fiscal condition might be grim, but lawmakers should avoid the "meat ax" of across-the-board spending cuts and instead use the "scalpel" of targeted reductions. The problem with this argument is that, given today's politics, it is nonsensical.
Politico | Budget's not high on Dems' to-do list
‘Show me your budget, and I will tell you what you value.” That’s what Joe Biden said last summer, and he meant it as a criticism of Republicans. The vice president’s comment raises a question: Where are the Democrats’ values? They’re in hiding, judging from their unwillingness to present any budget plans for almost four years.
Mercatus | The Debt Ceiling: Assets Available to Prevent Default
The debt ceiling, or the legal limit the federal government may borrow, is set currently at $16.4 trillion.[1] In his latest report, Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner predicts that the United States will need to increase the debt ceiling sometime between February 15, 2013, and early March 2013.
Blogs
CATO | The Sequester May Not Be ‘Fair,’ but It’s Real and It Would Slow the Growth of Government
Much to the horror of various interest groups, it appears that there will be a “sequester” on March 1. This means an automatic reduction in spending authority for selected programs (interest payments are exempt, as are most entitlement outlays).
Friday, January 25, 2013
General Economics
News
Market Watch | Keystone pipeline: Who wins when the oil flows?
A decision on TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline is fraught with political peril for the Obama administration, but for investors the question to ask is clear: If the line is going to be approved, which companies will benefit?
Bloomberg | German Business Confidence Gains Third Consecutive Month
German business confidence rose more than economists forecast in January, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is recovering from a slump at the end of last year.
Market Watch | Housing market’s latest obstacle: Appraisals
What’s that $1 million house really worth? Depends who you ask.
CNN Money | Europe eyes growth windfall from U.S. trade pact
European leaders came to the Swiss resort of Davos this week eyeing the potential windfall gains that could flow from a free-trade agreement with the United States.
FOX Business | New Home Sales Slump in December
New single-family home sales fell in December although the median sales price rose and the sector still appears set to be a bright spot in the country's economic recovery.
Washingotn Times | Fracking’s rise in U.S. inspires the world
The U.S. energy industry clearly still leads the way on the revolutionary drilling method that has upended global energy markets, but the rest of the world is beginning to catch up as nations seek to replicate American success in oil and natural gas development.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | Deconstructing Obamanomics: What Is The Real Goal?
As President Barack Obama begins his second term, democratically returned to office by a majority of Americans who seem to buy what he is selling, it would profit us to pause a moment and examine the discrepancies between the vision he expounded in his inaugural address and the economic reality that surrounds us. This leads to a pivotal question: What, exactly, is the underlying purpose of Obamanomics, and how would we know?
WSJ | Yes, Mr. President, We Are a Nation of Takers
In President Obama's second inaugural address, he not only outlined an ambitious agenda for his second term but also seemed intent on shutting down debate about the social-welfare state and its impact on American life.
Fortune | Why Americans still feel poor
Stocks are up again, but home prices are the real barometer of personal wealth.
Politico | How to renew the American dream
Immigrants remind us of our potential as a free people. Throughout American history, this nation’s great experiment in individual liberty and free enterprise has attracted people committed to building a better future for themselves and their families. Immigrants are by nature risk takers, entrepreneurs who often have the work ethic, drive, energy, creativity and passion necessary to succeed.
NY Times | Housing Offers Hope of Strength in the Economy
A funny thing is happening to the United States housing market. It is getting better at an accelerating rate.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | World Economic Forum: An Opportunity to Promote Economic Freedom
Masters of the world’s economies are converging on the small resort town of Davos, Switzerland, this week for the annual World Economic Forum (WEF). These “Davos M[e]n” include the world’s top business leaders, central bankers, and politicians.
WSJ | Analysis: Fall in New Home Sales Doesn’t Change Story of Housing Recovery
Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell in December, a decline of 7.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 369,000. Even so, that end-of-year rate was well above that of a year earlier, marking the beginnings of a recovery for the building industry.
FOX Business | Govt. Waste, Fraud & Abuse
When it comes to cutting the purse strings, nobody is worse than Congress… and I mean nobody.
WSJ | Banking Crises Do Lasting Damage to Productivity
Banking crises appear to hurt national productivity more than other financial disasters like hyperinflation and currency collapses, Bank of England researchers reported Thursday, in findings that may shed light on a puzzling weakness in Britain’s economy and influence the central bank’s response.
Café Hayek | Measuring Growth
We might think of three paths to growth or three ways that the world gets better
Market Watch | Keystone pipeline: Who wins when the oil flows?
A decision on TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline is fraught with political peril for the Obama administration, but for investors the question to ask is clear: If the line is going to be approved, which companies will benefit?
Bloomberg | German Business Confidence Gains Third Consecutive Month
German business confidence rose more than economists forecast in January, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is recovering from a slump at the end of last year.
Market Watch | Housing market’s latest obstacle: Appraisals
What’s that $1 million house really worth? Depends who you ask.
CNN Money | Europe eyes growth windfall from U.S. trade pact
European leaders came to the Swiss resort of Davos this week eyeing the potential windfall gains that could flow from a free-trade agreement with the United States.
FOX Business | New Home Sales Slump in December
New single-family home sales fell in December although the median sales price rose and the sector still appears set to be a bright spot in the country's economic recovery.
Washingotn Times | Fracking’s rise in U.S. inspires the world
The U.S. energy industry clearly still leads the way on the revolutionary drilling method that has upended global energy markets, but the rest of the world is beginning to catch up as nations seek to replicate American success in oil and natural gas development.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | Deconstructing Obamanomics: What Is The Real Goal?
As President Barack Obama begins his second term, democratically returned to office by a majority of Americans who seem to buy what he is selling, it would profit us to pause a moment and examine the discrepancies between the vision he expounded in his inaugural address and the economic reality that surrounds us. This leads to a pivotal question: What, exactly, is the underlying purpose of Obamanomics, and how would we know?
WSJ | Yes, Mr. President, We Are a Nation of Takers
In President Obama's second inaugural address, he not only outlined an ambitious agenda for his second term but also seemed intent on shutting down debate about the social-welfare state and its impact on American life.
Fortune | Why Americans still feel poor
Stocks are up again, but home prices are the real barometer of personal wealth.
Politico | How to renew the American dream
Immigrants remind us of our potential as a free people. Throughout American history, this nation’s great experiment in individual liberty and free enterprise has attracted people committed to building a better future for themselves and their families. Immigrants are by nature risk takers, entrepreneurs who often have the work ethic, drive, energy, creativity and passion necessary to succeed.
NY Times | Housing Offers Hope of Strength in the Economy
A funny thing is happening to the United States housing market. It is getting better at an accelerating rate.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | World Economic Forum: An Opportunity to Promote Economic Freedom
Masters of the world’s economies are converging on the small resort town of Davos, Switzerland, this week for the annual World Economic Forum (WEF). These “Davos M[e]n” include the world’s top business leaders, central bankers, and politicians.
WSJ | Analysis: Fall in New Home Sales Doesn’t Change Story of Housing Recovery
Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell in December, a decline of 7.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 369,000. Even so, that end-of-year rate was well above that of a year earlier, marking the beginnings of a recovery for the building industry.
FOX Business | Govt. Waste, Fraud & Abuse
When it comes to cutting the purse strings, nobody is worse than Congress… and I mean nobody.
WSJ | Banking Crises Do Lasting Damage to Productivity
Banking crises appear to hurt national productivity more than other financial disasters like hyperinflation and currency collapses, Bank of England researchers reported Thursday, in findings that may shed light on a puzzling weakness in Britain’s economy and influence the central bank’s response.
Café Hayek | Measuring Growth
We might think of three paths to growth or three ways that the world gets better
Health Care
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Post | Health care threatens to crush U.S. growth
The 2012 annual report for the federal government, released last week, continues to use dubious accounting standards to avoid putting the cost of government retirement promises into the headline deficit of $1.1 trillion. But its disclosures have improved somewhat, and the new information should be read closely.
Washington Post | Health care threatens to crush U.S. growth
The 2012 annual report for the federal government, released last week, continues to use dubious accounting standards to avoid putting the cost of government retirement promises into the headline deficit of $1.1 trillion. But its disclosures have improved somewhat, and the new information should be read closely.
Monetary
News
Bloomberg | ECB Says Banks to Repay More Than Forecast of 3-Year Loan
The European Central Bank said banks will next week repay more of its emergency three-year loans than economists forecast in another sign the euro region’s debt crisis is abating.
CNN Money | Say goodbye to more bank branches
Overall, banks closed 2,267 branches last year and opened only 1,149, according to research firm SNL Financial. That resulted in a total loss of 1,118 branches nationwide -- the highest level since 2005, when the firm began tracking closures.
CNBC | Interest Rates Will Spike This Year: Soros
There will be a dramatic rise in interest rates as soon as there are clear signs the U.S. economy is picking up, billionaire financier George Soros told CNBC.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Fortune | Making the case for negative interest rates
Former Fed official Alan Blinder talks about how to fix the economy, where the next crisis will come from, and how scared investors should be.
Real Clear Markets | With Each Central Bank Move, Nations Are Impoverished More
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is back in the news again, making headlines for derivatives trades. The oldest banking concern in the world cannot seem to catch a break, having trod down the hidden road toward its own version of extend and pretend.
Bloomberg | ECB Says Banks to Repay More Than Forecast of 3-Year Loan
The European Central Bank said banks will next week repay more of its emergency three-year loans than economists forecast in another sign the euro region’s debt crisis is abating.
CNN Money | Say goodbye to more bank branches
Overall, banks closed 2,267 branches last year and opened only 1,149, according to research firm SNL Financial. That resulted in a total loss of 1,118 branches nationwide -- the highest level since 2005, when the firm began tracking closures.
CNBC | Interest Rates Will Spike This Year: Soros
There will be a dramatic rise in interest rates as soon as there are clear signs the U.S. economy is picking up, billionaire financier George Soros told CNBC.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Fortune | Making the case for negative interest rates
Former Fed official Alan Blinder talks about how to fix the economy, where the next crisis will come from, and how scared investors should be.
Real Clear Markets | With Each Central Bank Move, Nations Are Impoverished More
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is back in the news again, making headlines for derivatives trades. The oldest banking concern in the world cannot seem to catch a break, having trod down the hidden road toward its own version of extend and pretend.
Taxes
News
Bloomberg | Sweden Warns U.S. Against Targeting Welfare With Tax Deficit
The U.S. will never be able to afford the kind of welfare benefits enjoyed by Europeans unless it raises taxes, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said.
WSJ | In Senate, New Push on Taxes
If House Republicans' aim this week was to draw contrasts with Democrats on deficit-cutting, they got their wish sooner than they expected.
CNBC | Governors Push Bigger Reliance on Sales Taxes
Republican governors are moving aggressively to cut personal and corporate income taxes, including proposals that would increase reliance on state sales taxes, setting up ambitious experiments in tax reform that could shape what is possible on a national level.
Econ Comments & Analysis
NBER | Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry
We construct new firm-level panel data on auto industry innovation distinguishing between "dirty" (internal combustion engine) and "clean" (e.g. electric and hybrid) patents across 80 countries over several decades.
CBO | Refundable Tax Credits
The U.S. tax code contains many preferences that lower or eliminate the amount of taxes owed. Those preferences include deductions, exclusions, and tax credits, which can be either refundable or nonrefundable.
Bloomberg | Sweden Warns U.S. Against Targeting Welfare With Tax Deficit
The U.S. will never be able to afford the kind of welfare benefits enjoyed by Europeans unless it raises taxes, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said.
WSJ | In Senate, New Push on Taxes
If House Republicans' aim this week was to draw contrasts with Democrats on deficit-cutting, they got their wish sooner than they expected.
CNBC | Governors Push Bigger Reliance on Sales Taxes
Republican governors are moving aggressively to cut personal and corporate income taxes, including proposals that would increase reliance on state sales taxes, setting up ambitious experiments in tax reform that could shape what is possible on a national level.
Econ Comments & Analysis
NBER | Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry
We construct new firm-level panel data on auto industry innovation distinguishing between "dirty" (internal combustion engine) and "clean" (e.g. electric and hybrid) patents across 80 countries over several decades.
CBO | Refundable Tax Credits
The U.S. tax code contains many preferences that lower or eliminate the amount of taxes owed. Those preferences include deductions, exclusions, and tax credits, which can be either refundable or nonrefundable.
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