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Thursday, March 28, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Consumer Comfort in U.S. Declines for a Second Straight Week
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped to minus 34.4 in the week ended March 24, a six-week low, from minus 33.9 in the prior period.
Market Watch | 30-year mortgage rate rises to 3.57%
The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.57% in the week ending March 28, still near record a low, from 3.54% in the prior week, Freddie Mac said Thursday in its weekly report.
Bloomberg | Economy in U.S. Grew at Revised 0.4% Pace in Fourth Quarter
Gross domestic product rose at a 0.4 percent annual rate, up from a 0.1 percent prior estimate and following a 3.1 percent pace in the third quarter.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Laffer and Moore: The Red-State Path to Prosperity
Blue states with high taxes are struggling to compete for businesses and workers.
Washington Times | GHEI: Punishing savers, Cypriot edition
There is a deal in place that will bail out the government of Cyprus — but only after extracting more than $5 billion from bank depositors and plunging the economy into uncertainty.
Market Watch | Top 10 economic policy mistakes
A batch of blunders made by economic and financial authorities both here and abroad has created headwinds that are slowing the already-weak economy. Here are some of their more egregious errors:
Washington Post | ‘Trickle-down consumption’: How rising inequality can leave everyone worse off
As income inequality in the United States has soared and median wages have flatlined since 1980, economists have spent a lot of time debating why the top 1 percent have done so much better than everyone else. Is policy to blame? The decline of labor? Technology?
NBER | Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data
We find no evidence that multipliers are greater during periods of high unemployment in the U.S. In every case, the estimated multipliers are below unity. We do find some evidence of higher multipliers during periods of slack in Canada, with some multipliers above unity.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ: Real Time Economics | Most Cities Saw Improving Economic Conditions in 2012
Overall, Texans enjoyed the most gains in economic recovery, according to the data, although that’s partly because the oil and natural gas boom helped insulate the state from the worst of the slowdown.
Mercatus Center | Third Edition of Freedom in the 50 States
Today the Mercatus Center released the third edition of Freedom in the 50 States by Will Ruger and Jason Sorens. In this new edition, the authors score states on over 200 policy variables. Additionally, they have collected data from 2001 to measure how states’ freedom rankings have changed over the past decade.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | The Secret Republican Plan to Repeal 'Obamacare'
But, in the next two years, Republicans are looking to bring the issue back in a big way. And they’ll start by trying to brand the law as one that costs too much and is not working as promised.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | CASSIDY: Three years of Obamacare hustling
With the passage of Obamacare’s third anniversary, I’ve been thinking about all the implications of the law and, frankly, I feel hustled. This is how every American should feel about Obamacare.

Monetary

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | When a Euro Isn't a Euro
In this sense, capital controls in Cyprus could reinforce a broader confidence crisis if they convince depositors elsewhere in Europe that they too might someday face strictures on capital movement.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ: Real Time Economics | Flock of Doves Back Fed Bond Buying
Some Fed officials Wednesday downplayed worries that very easy Fed policy may be setting the stage for new financial imbalances that could imperil the recovery effort.

Taxes

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Cato Institute | Issa: IRS Is Violating ObamaCare by Illegally Taxing Employers in 33 States
To combat the sticker shock of Obamacare’s numerous requirements on health insurance premiums, the law creates expensive subsidies, which take the form of tax credits, for individuals who purchase a government-approved insurance plan.

Budget

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Forbes | Short-Term Congressional Budget Fixes Only Prevent Total Disaster
CRs are, in fact, a clumsy way to conduct the people’s business. They include all functions of government in one ugly package.
Washington Times | Fiscal crisis in Cyprus to benefit U.S. banks
Money that’s been trapped in Cyprus banks for the last two weeks could begin to cross the Atlantic and flood the American banking system starting Thursday when banks on the European island reopen, one banking expert predicts.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ: Real Time Economics | If Rates Rise, Larger Deficit Follows
If interest rates rise to the averages seen between 1991 and 2000 — that is, 4.9% on the 3-month Treasury bill and 6.7% on the 10-year Treasury note in 2023 — then the deficit would be $274 billion bigger in that year than it would otherwise be — and $1.44 trillion bigger over 10 years.

Employment

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
CNN: Money | Jobless claims rise slightly
The number of Americas filing for their first week of unemployment benefits rose last week, suggesting a stall in what has generally been a steadily if slowly improving job market.
Bloomberg | America Losing Technology Workers Denied in Visa Lottery
The employer-sponsored visa allows 65,000 professionals with a college degree or equivalent experience to work in the U.S. for three years with extensions to six years and beyond. It took 10 weeks to reach the quota last year and until Nov. 22 in 2011.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Forbes | A Knock on the Golden Door
Whether the new applicants are seeking stoop-labor jobs in California's Central Valley or high-tech jobs in Silicon Valley, the laws of economics dictate the outcome: more immigration.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Cyprus Capital Controls First in EU Could Last Years
Cyprus is on the verge of an unprecedented financial experiment: imposing controls on money transfers in an economy that doesn’t have its own currency.
National Journal | Big Labor and Big Business Have One Big Issue: Immigration Reform
Immigration reform has become the No. 1 policy priority at the AFL-CIO, a remarkable shift for the labor group that has in the past spent more effort trying to pass a health care law or destroying a proposal to privatize Social Security.
Fox Business | New Foreclosures Fall to Lowest Level Since Crisis
The number of new U.S. foreclosures initiated in the fourth quarter of 2012 fell to the lowest level since officials began tracking them during the financial crisis, a government report said on Wednesday.
Bloomberg | Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Decline 0.4%
The index of pending home sales fell 0.4 percent to 104.8, the second-highest level since April 2010, after a revised 3.8 percent increase the prior month.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Politico | Spectrum auction could rev up economic engine
The FCC can build on the proven economic engine of wireless networks and address the current spectrum shortage by identifying additional spectrum that can be allocated and auctioned to wireless providers for their exclusive use to serve America’s mobile consumers.
Politico | Biofuels advance economy, society
We must not forget that most successful industries and innovations do not mature overnight.
CNN: Money | State governments face one of Corporate America's biggest problems: extra cash
States expect modest budget surpluses this year, and just like U.S. companies, they're not exactly loosening their purse strings.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Economist | The biggest problem
Central bankers like to say that monetary policy isn't a panacea, and they're right. But monetary policy can solve the nominal problem. And because the severity of so many other problems is contingent on the severity of the nominal problem, bad monetary policy can make it difficult to get anything else right.

Health Care

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Politics | Study: Health Law to Raise Claims Cost 32 Percent
The study says claims costs will go up largely because sicker people will join the insurance pool. That's because the law forbids insurers from turning down those with pre-existing medical problems, effective Jan. 1.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
CNBC | Has Wealth Inequality in US Sparked Fed's Interest?
Some on the FOMC, they said, assert that inequality "undermines the ability of the economy to grow sustainably and efficiently" and could lower the long-term growth rate.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
New York Sun | A Run on the Fed?
It may not be a run on the Fed — not by a long shot — but it comes as we’re starting to see the fraying of the concept of trust that undergirds any system of money and credit.
RCM | Gary Shilling Is Confused: There's No Global 'Deflation'
In short, what we and the rest of the world are experiencing is the opposite of deflation whereby paper around the world is being devalued on the way to cautious investment and slow growth. Yes, inflation is very deflating.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
CNN: Money | IRS warns of 'dirty dozen' tax scams
Taxpayers should be on alert for identity thieves, e-mails falsely claiming to be from the IRS and shady tax preparers this year, the IRS warns.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
RCM | The Quickest Way To Wreck Corporate Tax Reform
If the overall reform package is revenue-neutral and old capital comes out ahead, then new investments have to pick up the slack. For new investments, the loss from the depreciation slow-down must outweigh the benefits of the rate cut, amplifying the tax penalty.
Forbes | Romney's 47% Has a Venerable Legacy in the 1913 Origins of the Income Tax
That was the consensus that gave us the income tax. The rich would pay it, nobody else would, and everyone else’s taxes would be cut and minimized.
Washington Times | TAUBE: Why a carbon tax is wrong for the right
It goes without saying the Republicans have to take a free-market-oriented position on the environment to win over some voters. It would also be an egregious political error, however, to ever include support for a carbon tax.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Cato Institute | Targeting Multinationals, the OECD Launches New Scheme to Boost the Tax Burden on Business
I’ve been very critical of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Most recently, I criticized the Paris-based bureaucracy for making the rather remarkable assertion that a value-added tax would boost growth and employment.

Budget

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | LAMBRO: Short-term budget bedevils second-term Obama
The federal budget deficit will be nearly $1 trillion this year, our national debt is headed toward $17 trillion, Congress‘ approval polls are a dismal 13 percent, and our lawmakers are on a two-week spring break.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Econlog | Tax Hikes, then Spending Cuts: Not What "Starve the Beast" Predicted
It's all common sense, of course: Less money coming in probably means less money going out. But as I've said before, common sense is a bad way to learn astronomy so maybe it's a bad way to learn economics.
Market Watch | U.S. debt held by foreigners ‘manageable,’ economist says
New figures out Tuesday show the net debt held by foreigners is “manageable” and well below levels that have triggered issues in other countries, an economist says after seeing fresh data.
CBO | How Different Future Interest Rates Would Affect Budget Deficits
The causes of higher interest rates would also affect the conduct of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Changes in both interest rates and the magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s purchases and sales of securities would affect remittances by the Federal Reserve to the Treasury.

Employment

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ: Real Time Economics | Temp Hiring Tumbling in Euro Zone
A pickup in temporary hiring through recruitment consultants can be an early sign of an economic rebound on the horizon.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Orders for U.S. Durable Goods Rise More Than Forecast
Orders for U.S. durable goods climbed more than forecast in February, propelled by automobiles and a rebound in commercial aircraft.
CNN: Money | Home prices: Biggest rise since housing bubble
Home prices continued their recovery, rising 8.1% in January, although a separate report showed a slight slowdown in new-home sales.
Bloomberg | Stevens Says G-20 Should Focus on Reform Implementation in 2014
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the Group of 20 should focus on implementing rule changes in the financial system rather than adding new reforms when Australia takes over the presidency next year.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Mortimer Zuckerman: The Great Recession Has Been Followed by the Grand Illusion
Don't be fooled by the latest jobs numbers. The unemployment situation in the U.S. is still dire.
Washington Times | RAHN: How government steals your savings
What many fail to realize is that from the beginning, governments have been engaged in this type of theft, including the U.S. government.
Fox Business | Women Entrepreneurs: Creating Jobs and Building Wealth
Nearly half of all new businesses in this country are launched by women, yet businesses started by men are three-and-a-half times more likely to reach $1 million in annual revenue.
CNN: Money | Cyprus: The worst is yet to come
Despite an eleventh-hour deal, the fallout from the Cypriot crisis is far from over.
Washington Post | Spain’s central bank offers grim forecast: more recession, higher unemployment
Spain will sink deeper into recession and unemployment will worsen this year as the country struggles under the weight of austerity measures taken to repair public finances and the effects of a weak global economy, the central bank said Tuesday.
Mercatus Center | Why Old Regulations Never Seem to Die
Regulatory reform efforts often rely on agencies to provide information about which regulations are inefficient, duplicative, or outdated. While the agencies may indeed have a good idea of which regulations need to go, they have little incentive to actually see them repealed—that would mean smaller budgets, fewer employees, and diminished power.
AEI | Recasting conservative economics
The American economy is not managed in any real sense: It is, by and large, a free-market system operating within a complex global marketplace. Of the forces that affect our economy, far more are outside the president's control than are within it.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Economist | Coming soon to uninsured deposits near you
A rescue programme agreed for Cyprus on Monday represents a new template for resolving euro zone banking problems and other countries may have to restructure their banking sectors…
WSJ: Real Time Economics | Gas Prices Drift Lower in March
Gasoline prices inched down in the past week, with the average cost of a gallon of regular falling to $3.680 from $3.696 during the previous week.

Health Care

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
AEI: The American | The Shrinking Health Gap
While health inequality across some demographic groups has increased, it has fallen over the entire population

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | BRICS Nations Plan New Bank to Bypass World Bank, IMF
The biggest emerging markets are uniting to tackle under-development and currency volatility with plans to set up institutions that encroach on the roles of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Bloomberg | Dallas Fed Favoring Reduced Asset Purchases on U.S. Recovery
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said he’d like the U.S. to reduce its mortgage-backed security purchases program amid signs that the economy will probably grow at about 3 percent by the end of the year.
WSJ | Fed Banker Backs Dialing Down Easy Money .
Mr. Dudley, one of the chief advocates of the bond-buying programs, appeared decisively in favor of tapering off purchases in the future.
MSN Money | Europe's crisis buys time for Fed
Maybe there's hope for the Federal Reserve -- and the U.S. economy, after all. At the least, the eurozone debt crisis should give the Fed -- and U.S. stock and bond prices -- valuable support through September.
WSJ | A Commission for the Fed's Next 100 Years
As the Federal Reserve approaches its 100th anniversary in December, the focus of monetary reform centers on a bill called the Centennial Monetary Commission Act. Introduced this month in the House of Representatives by Chairman of the Joint Economic CommitteeKevin Brady.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | 10 U.S. companies paying no taxes
As Washington tries to find its way out of increasing debt, the debate continues over whether American companies should pay more or less in taxes. Meanwhile, some of the largest U.S. public corporations paid no taxes at all for 2012.
Washington Times | U.S. taxpayers shell out $3.7M so former presidents can maintain lifestyles
It’s good to be president. The nation’s four former presidents get an annual pension of about $200,000, a stipend to hire staff at around $96,000, and other taxpayer-funded benefits that foot the bill for everything from travel to postage — for life.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Reason.com | Tax Increases No Different Than Taxing Bank Accounts
Would a tax on Cypriot bank accounts be that different from taxation in America? Not really.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
Washington Post | The end of emergency unemployment benefits, in one chart
Unemployment is still at a historic high, but the extra money that the government doles out during economic emergencies has nearly dried up.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ: Real Time Economics | Shale Boom Not Leading to Widespread Hiring in Ohio
The researchers found employment rose 1.4% year-over-year in counties with heavy shale production, exactly the same as in counties with moderate development.
Cato Institute | Immigrants Are Attracted to Jobs, Not Welfare
Unauthorized and low skilled immigrants are attracted to America’s labor markets, not the size of welfare benefits. From 2003 through 2012, many unauthorized immigrants were attracted to work in the housing market.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Cyprus banks to stay shut after bailout
Cyprus' banks will remain shut until Thursday to give regulators time to guard against a run on deposits, the Ministry of Finance announced Monday.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | A Better Cyprus Deal
The question is what the EU will do when there's no German election and the next failing financial system is bigger than Cyprus's.
Mercatus Center | The Case for Across-the-Board Spending Cuts
America's fiscal problems are best addressed by a combination of tax reform and spending cuts to encourage economic growth. The idea of cutting federal spending across-the-board is much maligned in Washington.

Monday, March 25, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Consumers Will Keep Spending as U.S. Hurdles Fade: Economy
American consumers, who kept shopping through rising fuel costs and delayed tax refunds, will probably continue buoying the world’s largest economy as these hurdles dissipate.
Market Watch | Feb. national activity index back above zero
The national activity index swung back into positive territory in February, led by production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed said Monday. Its national activity index rose to +0.44 from a downwardly revised -0.49 in January. The three-month moving average slipped to a reading of +0.09 from +0.28.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | A Better Strategy for Faster Growth
At last count, 38 million working-age households received benefits from at least one federal welfare program.
Washington Post | U.S. economy shows signs of strengthening
Despite indisputable evidence that the economy is expanding economic conditions have been dismal.
Forbes | Uber, The Amazing Car Service, Lays Waste to Worry About Income Inequality
Uber’s rise as a business reminds us that the achievers of great wealth almost invariably grow rich for improving the lives of others, including their employees.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ: Real Clear Markets | Mortgage Securitizers Didn’t Know Housing Was Going Bust
A popular explanation for why the housing bubble happened says that unbalanced incentives within the financial system were to blame.
Econlog | Some Economics of Wal-Mart
One thing that you don't mention is the minimum wage. Wal-Mart supported increasing the minimum wage a few years ago. The reason, I believe, is that they want to price out of business their lower-wage, Mom-and-Pop competitors.
Mercatus Center | Shortfalls in non-profit disaster rebuilding
Social entrepreneurs face strong incentives to work well toward their objectives because their donors hold them accountable and they typically are involved in a cause because of their passion for it.

Health Care

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | HOLLERAN: It’s never too soon to repeal Obamacare
President Obama insists that his signature law, which goes into full effect next year, is a radical improvement. Its opponents, especially conservatives, argue that it’s a radical change for the worse.
WSJ | Medicaid-Expansion Puzzle
Deciding whether to expand Tennessee's Medicaid program as part of the federal health-care law should be easy for Republican Gov. Bill Haslam and the GOP leaders of the state legislature.
Washington Times | EDITORIAL: No candles for Obamacare
There’s no cause to celebrate this overstuffed turkey.
Heritage Foundation | Medicare’s Rising Costs — and the Urgent Need for Reform
The rising cost of Medicare is placing an increasing burden on current and future taxpayers, as well as exacerbating the poor financial condition of a program on which America’s seniors depend in their retirement.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Obamacare at Three Years: Increasing Cost Estimates
Over the last three years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its cost estimates for Obamacare’s new entitlements—the Medicaid expansion and exchange subsidies—many times, and they have more than doubled since 2010.

Monetary

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Bloomberg | Faster Growth Could End Fed’s War on Deflation
The aggressive stimulus programs undertaken by the Federal Reserve have partly been motivated by a growing fear of deflation.
WSJ | Bernanke's World War II Monetary Regime
The Fed's real goal in keeping interest rates low is to finance government debt and deficits.
Cato Institute | Hyperinflation? No. Inflation? Yes.
Until we return to a stable, rule-bound international monetary system, inflation will continue to be source of anxiety in economies and asset markets around the world.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
Washington Times | Md. drivers could face eventual doubling of gas tax
The bill would mean motorists could expect to pay 13 to 20 cents more for a gallon of gas by the time it is fully implemented in 2016.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | Senate weighs support for taxing Internet sales
Online sales taxes are not new, but thus far, Internet retailers have been exempt from collecting it, much to the chagrin of their brick-and-mortar peers who enjoy no such exemption.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Meat industry rescues federal workers
Over 9,000 federal food inspectors won't face furloughs after top companies from the meat and poultry industries spoke out in support of them.
WSJ | Government Payrolls Are Facing New Pressures
Governments bled hundreds of thousands of jobs after the U.S. economic recovery started. Now they're preparing to pass the knife around again as the federal budget comes under pressure.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
RCM | There's Lots of 'Abnormal' In 'New Normal' Joblessness
If 2008's labor force participation rate of 66% prevailed today, instead of February's depressed 63.5%, then there would be over six million more in the labor force and the unemployment rate would be an incredible 11.6% - the highest in the BLS' records!

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Garbage Collecting a Green Job? According to Government, Yes!
As we have noted, the BLS definition of green jobs is so bizarre that the total counts are meaningless.
WSJ: Real Time Economics | Number of the Week: Employers’ Benefits Costs
Nearly a third of employers’ costs per worker goes to benefits on top of regular wages and salaries, and the share is even greater in some industries.
Café Hayek | Minimum and Average Wages
Clearly, though, nearly all workers are better off at the lower minimum wage than at the higher minimum wage.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Bailout keeps Cyprus afloat
Cyprus secured a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) package of rescue loans in tense, last-ditch negotiations early Monday, saving the country from a banking system collapse and bankruptcy.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | MESSER: The budget road less traveled
The House plan takes a path less frequented by politicians. It’s a path where we don’t promise everything to everyone. It’s a path that controls spending sensibly so we can spend the limited resources we have on the programs we need.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
CBO | The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections
CBO routinely monitors the budgetary effects of enacted legislation to help improve projections of spending and receipts under current law, as well as to improve cost estimates for new legislative proposals.

Thursday, March 21, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Home sales hit highest rate in 3 years
Sales of previously-owned homes reached an annual rate of nearly 5 million in February, the strongest pace in more than three years.
Bloomberg | Euro-Area Manufacturing, Services Declined in March
Euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted more than economists estimated in March, adding to signs the currency bloc’s economy is struggling to emerge from a recession.
National Journal | The GOP Disconnect on Economic Policy
The Republican National Committee may want to send a few extra copies of the election postmortem it released this week over to Capitol Hill. Judging by the budget blueprints put forth by congressional Republicans, they didn’t get the memo.
FOX Business | Philly Fed Factory Activity Expands in March
Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region grew in March after contracting for two months in a row as new orders and employment improved, a survey showed on Thursday.
Bloomberg | Americans’ View on Economic Outlook Climbs to Three-Month High
Americans’ views of the economic outlook improved in March to the highest level this year as stock prices rallied to a record high.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Cuomo's Job-Depletion Plan
President Obama had such fabulous success running for re-election with a lousy jobs record that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has apparently decided to copy the strategy. If the state's economy continues to fizzle, the Democrat may even have a shot at the White House.
Washington Times | Austerity on rails
Washington is gripped by sequestration fever. Or sequestration chills, depending on the point of view. The White House complains that it’s suffering severe spending withdrawal, and Congress, or at least half of Congress, says it’s suffering the pangs of hunger for more and deeper spending cuts.
WSJ | Biggest Drag on Economy? Washington
Housing is on its way back. Consumers are spending more readily. Nearly two-thirds of U.S. private industries are hiring. The stock market is up. The U.S. economy is healing, albeit slowly.
Washington Times | Reduced regulations a ‘silver lining’ from sequester slashing
Many businesses and conservatives have made no secret that they like the $85 billion of across-the-board federal spending cuts this year because of their long-standing agenda to “starve the beast” of government.
NBER | Does Federal Financial Aid Affect College Enrollment? Evidence from Drug Offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998
In 2001, amendments to the Higher Education Act made people convicted of drug offenses ineligible for federal financial aid for up to two years after their conviction. Using rich data on educational outcomes and drug charges in the NLSY 1997, we show that this law change had a large negative impact on the college attendance of students with drug convictions.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Obamacare to hit home on Hill
During debate over the law in 2009, Republicans insisted that if members of Congress were going to put their fellow Americans into health care exchanges, they and their staffs should be in there, too.
National Journal | Public Opinion Stays Static on Affordable Care Act
The Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, which has asked the question nearly every month since 2009, has found that the public’s views of the law, overall, have remained nearly static. About 40 percent of people don’t like the law. About 40 percent do. The remainder are unsure. Other polls show the same trend.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
CATO | 50 Vetoes: How States Can Stop the Obama Health Care Law
Despite surviving a number of threats, President Obama’s health care law remains harmful, unstable, and unpopular. It also remains vulnerable to repeal, largely because Congress and the Supreme Court have granted each state the power to veto major provisions of the law before they take effect in 2014.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Federal Reserve sees slow recovery for years to come
The Federal Reserve trimmed its forecast for economic growth in 2013, but said Wednesday that it's a bit more optimistic that the unemployment rate will decline.
National Journal | What You Need to Know about Ben Bernanke's Evolving Views on Asset Bubbles
The Dow Jones industrial average hit a record earlier this month, causing some to cheer and others to worry the market is artificially high, given the still-sluggish economic recovery. The Federal Reserve Board chairman told reporters at a news conference Wednesday that the central bank doesn’t “see at this point anything that’s out of line with historical patterns.” 

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Bloomberg | Why Global Economies Face an Age of Deflation
In recent years, monetary and fiscal stimulus across the world have led to the assumption that serious inflation, if not hyperinflation, is on its way. I believe chronic deflation is more likely.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Economist | Unconventional policy forever
The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its two-day meeting today with a nothing-burger of a statement. Very little changed in its wording on the state of the economy, and both asset purchases and interest-rate guidance remain as they were before.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Camp Floats Biggest Tax Shift to Partnerships in 60 Years
Congress is debating the biggest rewrite of U.S. partnership rules in 60 years, which may lead to higher taxes for real estate and finance businesses or prompt them to restructure operations to avoid new costs.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Carbon Tax: Australia’s Experience Is a Chance for the U.S. to Get It Right
“This is the most effective and efficient way to drive innovation to find better, less-polluting ways of producing power, goods and services,” Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said at the passage of Australia’s carbon tax in July 2012. One wonders if he would say the same today—or, perhaps more importantly, if those proposing a similar scheme in the U.S. have any clue about the extra burden the tax is putting on Australia’s businesses.
Heritage Foundation | Obamacare Pre-Existing Conditions Coverage: Low Enrollment, High Costs
One of Obamacare’s main selling points during the health care reform debate was the need to provide insurance coverage to those with pre-existing conditions—but like other aspects of the law, the plan is failing those it was intended to help.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Coke cutting 750 U.S. jobs
Coca-Cola is cutting 750 U.S. jobs, a little more than 1% of its U.S. workforce, according to a company spokesman.
Bloomberg | Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Rise Less Than Forecast
Fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance last week, a signal the U.S. labor market is maintaining its recent progress.
USA Today | Job hunt is never far from the mind
That's a lot of idle time to think and second guess. It's also an opportunity to work toward something.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Conservative House budget fails
House Republican leaders beat back conservatives’ effort to substitute more drastic spending cuts than those contained in Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s fiscal blueprint, as Democrats forced the issue by voting present on the floor.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | The Sequester Is an Overhaul Opportunity
With the advent of the trillion-dollar budget sequester two weeks ago, many Americans assumed that the government's motley collection of furloughs, freezes and poorly planned cuts would result in even worse performance by the federal bureaucracy than they've come to expect.
Washington Post | Lessons from the budget bake-off
While philosophers have debated the question in broad terms for centuries, I’m happy to report that we can now definitively quantify the difference between a pinko communist dystopia in which the leviathan state crushes the very soul of freedom, and a neanderthal right-wing hellscape in which the poor, frail or otherwise unlucky fight for whatever crumbs John Galt cares to spill.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | What next for Cyprus?
The tiny nation with giant banks and a crushing government debt has soundly rejected a €10 billion bailout offer from the European Union because of public revulsion over the main string attached: a tax on bank deposits.
Bloomberg | Freddie Mac Sues Multiple Banks Over Libor Manipulation
Freddie Mac (FMCC) sued Bank of America Corp., UBS AG (UBSN), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and a dozen other banks over alleged manipulation of the London interbank offered rate, saying the mortgage financier suffered substantial losses as a result of the companies’ conduct.
CNN Money | America's infrastructure is finally getting a bit better
America's recent wave of infrastructure spending is beginning to pay off.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Politico | The reality of high-frequency trading
Is high-frequency trading a threat to our financial markets or an important innovation that benefits today’s investors? Judging by the rhetoric coming from some in Washington and elsewhere, it’s easy to perceive high-frequency trading as a one-sided battle pitting merciless, lightning-fast machines against earnest but doomed investors.
NY Times | Lesson Learned After Financial Crisis: Nothing Much Has Changed
We’ve been told that so many times since the near-death experiences of the financial crisis. Bankers and regulators have flipped roles: now it’s the bankers who are cautious and their overseers who are aggressive.
AEI | Do special enterprise zones undermine capitalism and our safety?
Smugglers are adept at taking advantage of the myriad tariffs and tax rates between jurisdictions. With increasingly cheap globalized transport and tax free zones cropping up all over the globe, smugglers, terrorist financiers and organized crime have found boundless illicit opportunities.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Is Economy Facing Another False Spring?
Many economists expect growth to slow some from the first quarter of the year into the second quarter as federal spending policies start to bite. Still, they don’t see a repeat of the past three years, when hopeful starts gave way to discouraging summers.
WSJ | Houses Are Getting Bigger Again
The sequester will hurt government spending, and higher taxes may slow consumer spending. But the U.S. housing sector looks willing and able to be an important contributor to growth this year.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Under new health law, battles over who’ll do what
Pharmacists in Alabama want to be allowed to provide therapeutic inserts for shoes of diabetics.
National Journal | Obamacare at Age 3: Still Too Young for Prognosis
The Affordable Care Act, the Obama administration’s signature attempt to broadly transform the health care system, marks its third anniversary this weekend. And it is still very much a toddler.
CNN Money | States eye private insurance for Medicaid expansion enrollees
Republican state lawmakers may not want to expand Medicaid, but some are warming up to the idea of using federal funds to buy private insurance for the poor.