8/30/10 Post

BUZZ: States See Pickup in Tax Revenue

News
Bank of Japan Boosts Loan Program, Pledges More Steps If Needed
The Bank of Japan expanded a bank- loan program, stepping up its monetary stimulus for the first time since March after the yen surged to a 15-year high and the government pressured the central bank to safeguard the recovery.
Luxury booms while bargain retail suffers
Consumer spending in the US is diverging into two strands as strong growth at high-end stores such as Tiffany contrasts with continuing difficulties for mass-market retailers.
Record number in government anti-poverty programs
Government anti-poverty programs that have grown to meet the needs of recession victims now serve a record one in six Americans and are continuing to expand.
Investors braced for week of key data
Investors are braced for a week of crucial economic data that could decide the Federal Reserve’s next move after chairman Ben Bernanke said it would ease policy if the outlook deteriorated “significantly”.
Cash-Poor Governments Ditching Public Hospitals
Faced with mounting debt and looming costs from the new federal health-care law, many local governments are leaving the hospital business, shedding public facilities that can be the caregiver of last resort.
Among Democrats, Economic Pressures Are Changing Tax-Cut Dynamics
In light of the recent weakening of the economy, a growing number of Democrats want to extend tax breaks for the wealthy through 2011.
Charter schools finding niches
Specialization seen as the next wave of reform.
Economic Reports This Week
Data will include personal income and spending for July (Monday); S.& P./Case-Shiller home price index for June and second quarter, Chicago purchasing managers’ index for August and consumer confidence for August (Tuesday); North American car sales for August; construction spending for July, ADP employment for August and the ISM manufacturing index for August (Wednesday); retailers’ same-store sales for August, pending home sales for July, factory orders for July and weekly jobless claims (Thursday); and unemployment for August and the ISM service index for August (Friday).
Economists: I dunno, man. What do you think?
The air is quickly coming out of the recovery balloon, and economists have mixed views on how to pump it back up.
Made in USA - For now
Despite the odds, these businesses have managed to stay truly all-American. But for how long?
Consumer spending picks up
Personal spending rose by $44.1 billion last month, or 0.4%, after falling less than 0.1% in June. This came in above the 0.3% increase economists expected.
Obama Looks to Congress to Jump-Start Economy
It is largely up to Congress to take action to speed up the economic recovery at this point, but many lawmakers are more focused on “the silly season” of campaigning instead of passing crucial legislation, President Obama said Sunday.

Blogs
NABE Survey: Most Economists Favor Extending Bush Tax Cuts
At least 60% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said lower tax rates on capital gains and dividends should not be allowed to expire as provided under current law.
How panhandlers use free credit cards
Some were unbelieving at first. All were grateful. Some declined the offer. Some who accepted didn’t come back, but those that did had stories to tell.
Trichet: Governments Must Make ‘Ambitious’ Plans To Cut Debt
The head of the European Central Bank said Friday that highly indebted governments will need to act forcefully to lower those burdens, as his central bank continues to work to keep inflation levels low.
Schedule for Week of August 29th
This will be another busy week - the August employment report on Friday is the key economic release this week.
After Crises, Slow Income Growth and High Unemployment
Economists Vincent and Carmen Reinhart offer a grim tour of the economic landscape after financial crises — one plagued by slow economic growth and high unemployment — in the kickoff paper up for discussion at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
Pray, Hear Me Out
...tax-exemption does not involve taking money from Y and giving it to X. That fact is vital.
Unofficial Problem Bank List increases to 840 institutions
"The Unofficial Problem Bank List grew by more than five percent this week as the FDIC released its enforcement actions for July 2010."
What Caused the State Budget Gaps?
The recession was the proximate cause: it sent revenues in a free fall at the same time that it put extra demands on the states’ welfare systems.
U.S. Births decline in 2009
The NCHS reports that U.S. births declined to 4.136 million in 2009, from 4.247 million in 2008. The birth rate declined to 13.5 from 13.9 in 2008 (births per 1000 total population).
How it sounds vs. how it really works
How does [the Recovery Act] sound? Great. Energy efficiency meets job creation. Green jobs helping the environment and saving people money...
The Decline in Civil Liberties
...Americans are no longer free to travel by commercial air without showing a government official a government-issued ID. So the freedom that [a U.S. foreign service officer in Moscow] sought in the United States no longer exists. In an important way, the United States has become Sovietized.
Why Does Louisiana Think This is Obama’s Katrina?
President Obama’s oil drilling ban is set to end on November 30, but hopefully the White House will begin to show some understanding of how the Gulf economy works by ending the ban before that.
Why is Obama Letting Non-Citizens Get Away with Voting?
We can now add one more general amnesty that the administration is apparently extending – no prosecution of illegal voting by noncitizens and a green light to becoming a citizen even if you have violated federal law.
Government Alters Stimulus Sign Policy, Raising More Propaganda Questions
In the 18 months following approval of President Obama’s stimulus package, the Department of Transportation required recipients of government funds to post placards touting the economic recovery. As a result, signs prominently featuring the recovery act logo appeared everywhere.
No Federal Bailouts for State and Local Government Pension Problems
There is bad news and worse news for state governments faced with underfunded pension promises.
Obama’s Economic Slide
What we are seeing is an economy that tried to recover last winter, slowed, and is now sliding steadily to stagnation. Not yet a recession, it is certainly the Obama slide.
Bernanke Pledge on Economy Gives Some Relief to Oil Prices
Ben Bernanke's comments at first sent markets down further, but stock, commodity prices rose once participants accepted the speech's takeaway: The Fed stands ready to act.
Bernanke on Monetary Policy
Ben Bernanke promised the Fed will do whatever it takes to aid the faltering U.S. recovery, and most of all to prevent deflation. The problem for the Fed Chairman is that the central bank is plainly running out of options.
The Laffer Curve Strikes Again
In the private sector, no business owner would be dumb enough to assume that higher prices automatically translate into proportionately higher revenues. In the public sector, however, there is very little understanding of how the real world works.
Is the Trade Gap to Blame for Slowing GDP Growth?
The trade gap should be the least of our worries.

Research, Reports & Studies
RCM: DEBT BE NOT PROUD
Bond investors are lenders. Why should we deliberately choose to lend more to those who are most deeply in debt?
RCM: Wells Fargo Economics Group: Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary
U.S. Review: New Day Yesterday.
RCM: Hudson Institute Economic Report
This week saw downward revisions in GDP, a slowing housing markets, and declining durable goods orders. The stock market fell below the psychological 10,000 mark, even though it tends to rise when Congress is out of session.
The Dodd-Frank Act: Creative Destruction, Destroyed
The dominant theme of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is fear of instability and change, which the act suppresses by subjecting the largest financial firms to banklike regulation. The competitiveness, innovativeness, and risk taking that have always characterized U.S. financial firms will, under this new structure, inevitably be subordinated to supervisory judgments about what these firms can safely be allowed to do.
Obama’s Iraq Speech Should Stress a Resolute U.S. Security Commitment
President Obama’s televised speech on Iraq will mark the “official” end of U.S. combat operations in Iraq and the transition to an “advise and assist” mission.

Economists’ Comments & Opinions
The Folly of Subsidizing Unemployment
My calculations suggest the jobless rate could be as low as 6.8%, instead of 9.5%, if jobless benefits hadn't been extended to 99 weeks.
Government Pay: Now For The Really Bad News
High federal pay means less capital formation, lower wages and reduced innovation.
Spreading Hayek, Spurning Keynes
Professor Leads an Austrian Revival.
The CBO Promotes a Stimulus Fantasy
The striking thing about the CBO analysis is that it is "reality proof". Rather than presenting evidence that "stimulus" works, the CBO employed economic models that assume that "stimulus" works. As a result, no matter what happened to 2Q2010 GDP and employment, the CBO's calculations would always show that "stimulus" worked exactly as intended.
Time to let home prices fall?
For government to stand in the way of a further price decline is unfair to the next generation of buyers...
Seeking An Honest Social Security Fix
Social Security is not an "insurance" program. Social Security is not a "pension" program. If it were either, everyone running it should go to jail. Quite simply, Social Security is an inter-generational tax and welfare scheme. Facing up to that truth is 90% of the battle as doing so would transform the debate into two separate problems that actually have rational solutions: How do we want to tax ourselves and who should we give welfare to?
Waiting for Mr. Obama
If President Obama has a big economic initiative up his sleeve, as he hinted recently, now would be a good time to let the rest of us in on it.
You Call This a 'Recovery'?
The administration promised from the beginning of last year that recovery would start soon after the stimulus was passed. The only thing that Obama has proved is that Keynesian economics is dead. But the huge debt that our children will inherit will ensure that they remember this experiment.
Disappointing Second Quarter Growth Numbers Bode Well For A..."Lost Decade"
"While growth was still positive, its rate is downright anemic in the wake of such a steep recession. Moreover, estimates of consumer spending were adjusted upward, showing just how weak the Keynesian concept of demand-led growth, boosted by government spending, really is.

Graph of the Day
Mercatus Center: Temporary Staffing Declines in 2010
See: Media Feeds America’s Skepticism about Trade
See: Federal Outlays by Category, Excluding Interest
See also: Surprise! Banks help more homeowners than Obama

Book Excerpts
"The problems involved are not of a praxeological character, and economics is not called upon to provide the best possible solution for them. They concern pathology and psychology. They refer to the biological fact that the fear of penury and of the degrading consequences of being supported by charity are important factors in the preservation of man's physiological equilibrium. They impel a man to keep fit, to avoid sickness and accidents, and to recover as soon as possible from injuries suffered. The experience of the social security system, especially that of the oldest and most complete scheme, the German, has clearly shown the undesirable effects resulting from the elimination of these incentives. No civilized community has callously allowed the incapacitated to perish. But the substitution of a legally enforceable claim to support or sustenance for charitable relief does not seem to agree with human nature as it is. Not metaphysical prepossessions, but considerations of practical expediency make it inadvisable to promulgate an actionable right to sustenance.

It is, moreover, an illusion to believe that the enactment of such laws could free the indigent from the degrading features inherent in receiving alms. The more openhanded these laws are, the more punctilious must their application become. The discretion of bureaucrats is substituted for the discretion of people whom an inner voice drives to acts of charity. Whether this change renders the lot of those incapacitated any easier, is hard to say." –Ludwig von Mises, Human Action (1949)

Did You Know
"As the U.S. draws down in Iraq, it is leaving behind hundreds of abandoned or incomplete projects. More than $5 billion in American taxpayer funds has been wasted — more than 10 percent of the some $50 billion the U.S. has spent on reconstruction in Iraq, according to audits from a U.S. watchdog agency. For example, a $40 million prison sits in the desert north of Baghdad, empty. A $165 million children's hospital goes unused in the south. A $100 million waste water treatment system in Fallujah has cost three times more than projected, yet sewage still runs through the streets"

8/27/10 Post

BUZZ: GDP growth falls sharply in 2Q

News
Obama Administration Seeks to Tighten U.S. Trade Laws
The Obama administration, vowing to crack down on countries such as China that it says help subsidize exports of cheap goods to the U.S., introduced 14 measures to toughen enforcement of trade laws.
Bernanke may nod to weaker outlook, omit details
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will have to address a number of pressing issues in a speech on Friday as investors search for more clarity on how close the U.S. central bank might be to another asset-buying spree to support the flagging recovery.
What Biden didn't mention on stimulus
Vice President Joe Biden said this week that the Obama administration "hit the accelerator" toward spending $5 billion under the economic stimulus law to weatherize people's homes, create thousands of jobs, help consumers save money and put the nation on track for energy independence.
Weak GDP raises stakes for Obama, Fed
Growth figures are expected to show the economy is almost at a standstill, but the government is running out of options to rebuild momentum.
A stickier problem
The economy stopped shrinking a year ago, but America’s unemployment problem is as big as ever. The official jobless rate was 9.5% in July, and would be higher still had many people not given up searching for work. Some 45% of the unemployed have been out of a job for more than six months—the highest proportion since the 1930s.
US mortgage rates reach record low
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 4.36 per cent, down from 4.42 per cent the previous week, according to a survey by Freddie Mac, the US government-backed mortgage financier. It is the lowest level since the survey began in 1971.
To help or not to help
The parties wrestle over whether America can afford to create more jobs.
States Press Workers on Health Care
As state and local governments push to get employees to pick up more health care costs, some employees are pushing back.
Bad circulation
There is more to America’s stubbornly high unemployment rate than just weak demand.
Capital Makeover: Stimulus Fuels D.C. Construction
Work on the court building has been going on since 2003. Estimated cost: $122 million.
Killing them softly
International regulators are making progress on tackling too-big-to-fail banks.
Mortgage Picture Brightens, for Now
Fewer Borrowers Were Behind or in Foreclosure in the Second Quarter, but the Number of Newly Distressed Loans Grew.
DJIA Again Loses Its Grip on 10000
Summer Rally for Blue Chips Falters as Weak Data Accumulate; Waiting to Hear From Bernanke.
Pakistan Flood Sets Back Years of Gains on Infrastructure
One estimate, in a joint study from Ball State University and the University of Tennessee, put the total cost of the flood damage at $7.1 billion. That is nearly a fifth of Pakistan’s budget, and it exceeds the total cost of last year’s five-year aid package to Pakistan passed by Congress.
Energy use is way down - but wind surges
Energy use in the United States fell nearly 5% last year, marking the largest annual drop on record.
8 pro-biz Dems facing tough races
Democrats hold 30 "tossup" seats, representing some of the tightest races in the country. Eight of those highly contested seats are held by market-oriented New Democrats.
American job creation 101: stop fretting over Chinese investment
While Chinese firms see the U.S. as an attractive place to do business, executives also think it's an incredibly risky venture.
FCC appeals indecency rule strike-down
The FCC's complaint claimed that the decision keeps it from enforcing indecency violations because it cannot develop a policy that would be specific enough to satisfy the panel.
Gov’t Set to Confirm What Many Feel: Economy at a Standstill
Many analysts say the uncertainty surrounding the economy is holding back consumers from spending and companies from investing and hiring.
AP ENTERPRISE: Tax records show boom for some, bust for others in Gulf of Mexico oil cleanup
The worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history has spurred something of an economic boom in some communities where cleanup operations are based.
GOP plans wave of White House probes
If President Barack Obama needed any more incentive to go all out for Democrats this fall, here it is: Republicans are planning a wave of committee investigations targeting the White House and Democratic allies if they win back the majority.

Blogs
Investing Other People’s Money
If ZBB Energy’s future really is as bright as Mr. Apfelbach says it is, private investors would commit sufficient funds to keep it growing. The fact that private investors aren’t doing so is strong evidence that ZBB Energy’s future is dimmer than Mr. Apfelbach thinks.
Something Else for Government Bondholders To Worry About [Government debt as a percent of GDP] doesn’t compare debt to a government’s ability — or willingness — to pay. When measured against government revenue, the U.S. debt position, for instance, is worse than Greece’s.
Why Won't the Fed Inflate?
Ben Bernanke probably doesn't want to end up having to do the humiliating round of mea culpas that Greenspan had to. That's probably going to give him, and the other members of the open market committee, a slightly deflationary bias.
For Workers Who Find Jobs, Lower Wages
Of the 6.9 million workers who lost jobs during the recession that they’d held for at least three years, only about half were reemployed by January 2010. And 55% of those who did find work were earning less than before.
Would more planned savings be good? How can we lower perceived risk premia?
Both the long-run and short-run conditions require partial resolution, at the same time, and yet the long- and short-run conditions point in some different directions.
Secondary Sources: Lower vs. Higher Rates, Fed Options, China and India
A roundup of economic news from around the Web.
Commercial Real Estate Borrowers Joint the Ranks of Strategic Defaulters
It should be a lot easier for bankers to weed out strategic defaulters in business than in the individual market; the cash flows are much more transparent. One hopes they do. Meanwhile, the problems with securitization become ever more apparent.
Believe Me or Your Own Lying Eyes?
"...because the government has used the cash from the trust fund surpluses to finance other current activities rather than saving the cash by running unified budget surpluses, the government as a whole has not been truly prefunding Medicare benefits."
Secretary Duncan’s Race to Waste Your Education Dollars
“As I have said many times before, this isn’t just about the money — this is about working together and putting the needs of children ahead of everyone else.”
Mexican Massacres, Immigration Control, and the Obama Administration
The cold blooded murder of 72 illegal migrants by members of Mexico’s notorious Zeta cartel in the state of Tamaulipas is another stark and gruesome reminder of the current criminal and drug-related turmoil in Mexico.
Yes, the Founding Fathers Have Foreign Policy First Principles
The Founding Fathers created the United States as a sovereign nation. That in itself is directly and obviously relevant to the conduct of American foreign policy, both because it is what enable us to have a foreign policy in the first place, and because it emphasizes the value the Founders placed on sovereignty.
The Great Deleveraging Lie
The storyline is that consumers, corporations are paying off debts. But consumer spending has been entirely propped up by an ever increasing level of debt.

Research, Reports & Studies
CH7: Postwar British Socialism and the Fabian Society
The shift from the doctrine of free markets and free trade to the doctrine of extensive government control was partly caused by the influences of the Fabian Society in Great Britain.
Automatic Stabilizers and Economic Crisis: US vs. Europe
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the tax and transfer systems in the European Union and the US to act as an automatic stabilizer in the current economic crisis.
Obama Administration Must Enforce America’s Immigration Laws
Instead of constantly seeking ways to evade, skirt, and ignore the immigration laws that are on the books, the Obama Administration needs to simply execute the laws while looking to solve the immigration problem in a way that discourages more illegal immigration, maintains security, and promotes the economy.
Obama Tax Hikes Defended by Myths and Straw Men
President Obama has called for a huge tax increase to take effect on January 1, 2011. Instead of reducing spending, he proposes to raise taxes on a wide swath of taxpayers—including small businesses—despite the weak economic recovery.
Returning More Power to the States Is the Natural Evolution in Homeland Security
The key to returning power to the states and localities is: Making sure those entities have a better seat at the table when national policy is created, discussed, and finalized; and Decreasing the federalization of disaster response that began in 1993. These two reforms would ensure that the power within the homeland security enterprise gravitates down closer to the people.

Economists’ Comments & Opinions
Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future
Few Californians in the private sector have $1 million in savings, but that's effectively the retirement account they guarantee to many government employees.
FDR and the Lessons of the Depression
Higher taxes on capital and increased union power led to the 1937 economic slide.
The Most Fiscally Irresponsible Government in U.S. History
Current federal budget trends are capable of destroying this country.
COLE: Obama's next big bank bailout
Fine print says taxpayers are still on the hook.
The Dangers of Big Government Debt
On Thursday, Standard & Poor's said action is needed soon if the U.S. is to keep the much-coveted AAA bond rating that lets the government borrow in global markets at the lowest rates possible.
Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, but How
The sovereign debt crisis is not European: it is global. And it is not over.
The New American Corporate State
A troika of big government, big business and big labor is attempting to run the country to its own advantage.
Clean Slate Time
How about this for a tax plan: cut most people’s taxes by half, eliminate the need to file returns, and provide the Treasury with a better way to reduce the deficit.
Prices drop, but hopes never do
Not even a 30 percent drop in housing prices can shake the idea that prices always go up.
Meaningless Multipliers Sank the Recovery Act, Part 2
Keynesian multipliers allow economists to ignore reality by making up jobs that can't be found on actual payrolls.
Primal Fears of a Double Dip Could Create Opportunities
People's innate tendency toward dichotomous thinking -- and its associated panic impulse -- could soon provide a chance to purchase stocks at extraordinary long term values.

Graph of the Day
Confronting the Unsustainable Growth of Welfare Entitlements
The Next Generation's Debt Burden
See: New Unemployment Benefits Claims
See: Floods in Pakistan - Maps, Graphs and Key Data
See also: The Cost of the Protected Class

Book Excerpts
"Signs are not wanting that some of those who are largely responsible for the present craze for planning are beginning to be uneasy about the forces they have loosened, and to feel a little like the sorcerer’s apprentice who cannot lay the ghosts he has raised. Once prices or incomes are guaranteed to some producers, there is little ground left for refusing the same to any others… If you argue for a particular purpose that “individuals have no machinery for limiting imports to the level of exports” you must not be surprised if your disciples insist that the Government should individually match each item of imports with a corresponding item of exports. And if you generally denounce the “humbug of finance” you must not expect the people to respect the particular piece of financial machinery of your own design." –F.A. Hayek, “Genius for Compromise,” (1945)

Did You Know
"New York Gov. David Paterson on Thursday promised to finally start collecting taxes on cigarettes sold by Native American stores, despite state police warnings that such enforcement could result in "violence and death." The state plans to collect a $4.35-per-pack sales tax on cigarettes sold by Native American retailers to non-Indian customers beginning next Wednesday.

Tribes have refused to collect the tax, citing their sovereignty and treaties dating to 1794. The last time the state tried to collect the tax, in 1997, protests erupted and tires were burned on the Thruway, shutting down a 30-mile stretch."

8/26/10 Post

BUZZ: Jobless Claims Decline

News
White House claims for stimulus rely on rosy assumptions, best-case scenarios
The Obama administration claimed this week that $100 billion invested in innovative technologies under the economic stimulus law is "transforming the American economy." But an examination of details in the 50-page report unveiled Tuesday by Vice President Joe Biden reveals something a bit different: a collection of rosy projections that ignore many of the challenges, pitfalls and economic realities in all those areas.
Ford to expand presence in Asia
Ford Motor Co. announced on Thursday that it will ramp up its presence in the fast-growing Asian and African markets.
One in 10 mortgage holders faces foreclosure
One in 10 American households with a mortgage was at risk of foreclosure this summer as the government's efforts to help have had little impact stemming the housing crisis.
How the Stimulus Is Changing America
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 — President Obama's $787 billion stimulus — has been marketed as a jobs bill, and that's how it's been judged. The White House says it has saved or created about 3 million jobs, helping avoid a depression and end a recession. Republicans mock it as a Big Government boondoggle that has failed to prevent rampant unemployment despite a massive expansion of the deficit. Liberals complain that it wasn't massive enough.
Slower U.S. Capital Investment May Reach Job Market
A slowdown in U.S. business investment may soon hit the job market, further hindering a recovery in the world’s largest economy.
Housing's a wreck. Builders rally. Huh?
Existing home sales plummeted in July. New home sales sunk as well, hitting a record low. But luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers reported a surprise quarterly profit Wednesday.
Co-chair of Obama debt panel under fire for remarks
Reforming Social Security has always been a political lightning rod, and none more so than this mid-term election year. Simpson's remarks could further inflame an already divisive debate and complicate the task of the bipartisan commission, which is attempting to broker solutions that both sides of the aisle can support.
Pressure mounts for 'Sheriff' Elizabeth Warren
Pressure continues to mount on President Obama to select Elizabeth Warren as the nation's first consumer financial protection regulator.
That sinking feeling: More bad news for the economy has people talking recession again
Businesses are ordering fewer goods. Home sales are the slowest in decades. Jobs are scarce, and unemployment claims are rising. Perhaps most worrisome, manufacturing activity, which had been one of the economy's few bright spots, is faltering.
SEC Gives Big Investors More Say Over Corporate Boards
The Securities and Exchange Commission voted to give shareholders greater power to nominate candidates to the boards of public companies, handing unions and institutional investors a win in their campaign to have more say over corporate policies.
Democrats privately fear House prospects worsening
Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day.
Taxing Times for U.S. Investors
Another uncertainty facing U.S. investors: impending tax-law changes.
US tax swoop faces banking backlash
The rules could drive smaller financial institutions out of the US market to escape the impact of the withholding tax, say industry groups.
Not Cash to Burn, but Money in the Bank
The nation's money stock, which includes currency plus bank deposits and households' money-market fund holdings, grew to about $8.64 trillion as of Aug. 9, from $8.48 trillion at the start of the year, according to the Federal Reserve.
Senate tax duel centers on small business
Both parties point to jobs.
Orders and Home Sales Underscore Slowdown
Weakness in durable-goods orders and a drop in new-home sales to historic lows offered more signs that the economy is losing momentum.
Stimulus Assessments Overly Optimistic
...an examination of details in the 50-page report unveiled Tuesday by Vice President Joe Biden reveals something a bit different: a collection of rosy projections that ignore many of the challenges, pitfalls and economic realities in all those areas.

Blogs
Or a Program That Was Actually Going to Work
Obama hasn’t been as successful selling his economic program as Reagan was.
Government’s Unwelcome Economic Distortions
Many of the “seeds” for the recession were planted by government. Regardless, the average citizen reflexively looked toward Washington to quickly fix the economy.
The Report on Stimulus CBO Wishes Would Go Away
As part of the stimulus legislation, Congress mandated CBO report regularly on how well the stimulus is doing. Money spent, economy faltering, Congress wants happy news about their stimulus, and in response all CBO can do is continue to run their antiquated models telling us that down is up and slow is fast.
Liberalism is Failing
…there is no such thing as a free lunch.
Slicing the Bagel Reveals VAT Flaws
Under the tax laws extant in the Big Apple, if a bagel is sold whole, then it is, well, a bagel. But if the bagel is sliced before it is sold, then it falls under the category of “processed foods.” And processed foods are subject to a higher tax—a nine cent higher tax, to be specific.
Side Effects: College Students May Lose Health Care Option Under Obamacare
What about kids without parental coverage? The new law’s requirement that insurance cover children up to age 26 won’t make any difference.
There’s No Such Thing as a Free Energy Audit
D.C.’s Department of the Environment (DDOE) teamed up with Patuxent Environmental Group (PEG) and other contractors to provide “free” energy audits, of course it didn’t end well for the consumer. But most residents didn’t realize that PEG would place liens on their houses for not paying for the audit.
Economy Getting Sicker by the Day, But What It Really Needs Is a Fever
The only cure for the global economy is to eliminate all this government intervention and waste, and then eliminate the artificial excesses coming from the Fed.
New Fed Proposal to Bankrupt America: Government Guarantee of Entire ABS Market
In essence, some economists are saying that bureaucrats are capable of managing the insurance of markets that may exceed $20 trillion.
How An Even Slower Recovery Would Feel
After some improvement in the data over the spring and early summer, the recent news is describing an economy growing below 2%. While technically not a double-dip recession, the recovery could be so weak it will feel like another downturn.
Spending vs. PSST
I would like to see less emphasis on measuring economic activity as spending. I would like to see more effort put into understanding economic activity as patterns of sustainable specialization and trade.
Why were the measured productivity gains so high in 2009?
...interpret the "high productivity innovation" as the decision to lay the workers off, and the selection of workers, not the sudden advent and withdrawal of some new high productivity technology.
CBO Report: We're Still Using the Same Stimulus Model, and It Still Says the Same Thing
Every few months, this comes out, and every few months, a bunch of commentators treat this as if this were an empirical analysis, rather than a case of the CBO sticking the numbers back into the same model, re-running them, and conclusively proving that . . . their model still generates the same results.
Gridlock is Great for Stock Market Returns
Unified governments spend far more, and more quickly, and expand regulation much more than split governments do.
Regime Uncertainty: Are Interest-Rate Movements Consistent with the Hypothesis?
If mainstream analysts continue to disregard the role of regime uncertainty in the major depressions of the modern era, especially in accounting for their extraordinary duration, then they will only demonstrate the poverty of their own mode of analysis.
Fannie, Freddie and Mortgage Addiction
The key is to sell the accumulated mortgages slowly, in small increments. This will take years— after all, it took decades for the government to create the mess.
The Role of Regulation
Matt Yglesias has been fighting a good fight against occupational licensing regimes that mostly serve to restrict entry.
Biden’s Fatal Conceit
Biden repeatedly stated that the “government plants the seed and the private sector makes it grow.” Because the government possesses no “seeds” that it didn’t first confiscate from the private sector, what the vice president is advocating is the redistribution of capital according to the dictates of the Beltway.
The stimulus is working … just not for you
Had we wanted to stimulate the entire economy we would have seen tax cuts for all employers and employees, a sure-fire way to put money in the pockets of everybody.
Is That the Most They Can Say in Stimulus Spending’s Defense?
If a job exists only because of the existence of government dollars, then the job will go away when the government dollars go away.
All This Talk About Deficits Is Getting In the Way Of Preserving and Expanding Our Entitlement Spending
Newly minted White House budget director Jacob Lew said essentially the same thing a decade ago when he told Congress that “fiscal discipline is essential to protect Social Security and strengthen Medicare, so that both will be there in the years ahead.” In this view, fiscal responsibility is useful insofar as it allows for the expansion of government.
The Fed Should Exit Its Low-Rate Policy
...this solution is not sustainable in the long term: The cost is exorbitant, and the short-term and long-term distortions would be devastating.

Research, Reports & Studies
RCM: Wells Fargo Economics Group: New Home Sales Drop to a New Record Low
New home sales fell 12.4 percent in July, which was well below the consensus estimate. Prior months’ data were revised downward. The absolute level of sales dropped to a 276,000-unit pace, which is a record low.
Another Presidential Rescue Mission in North Korea
August has become the month when former U.S. Presidents fly to Pyongyang to gain the release of U.S. citizens incarcerated for illegally entering North Korea.
Cyber Security: A Complex "Web" of Problems
Today, as it pertains to cyber security, America still needs clearer lines of authority within the federal government and a more coherent structure of public–private interaction to allow for effective action.

Economists’ Comments & Opinions
Ask Unemployed How the Stimulus is Working
When the stimulus package was enacted in February 2009, the labor force participation rate, the percentage of Americans who say they are working or looking for work, stood at 65.6%. Last month it was 64.6%, a full percentage point lower.
No Need To Over-Regulate Banker Compensation
Dodd-Frank strengthened shareholder power. Now give bank shareholders the right incentives and let compensation reform itself.
Fed to Savers: Drop Dead
Thoughts while pondering the 43 cents of interest I earned on my savings.
Honey, I Shrunk My Approval Ratings
The White House is having a disastrous 'summer of recovery.'
Where Are the New Jobs?
The statisticians at the National Bureau of Economic Research declared the Great Recession over -- but tell that to people who can't find jobs.
The Fed Is Running Low on Ammo
It still has options if more monetary easing is needed. But they're not very effective.
Harsanyi: Gridlock: our greatest hope
There is no greater check on power in Washington than two strong political parties.
The IRS Targets Incompetent Tax Preparers
That's good news. But the agency is going overboard.
VENABLE: Texas fights global-warming power grab
Lone Star state won't participate in Obama's lawless policy.
ObamaCare: It Is Here
While many of Obama Care's major pieces won't kick in until 2014, a few big changes are already under way--and offering an early taste of what's in store for American health care. It ain't pretty.
Why we're not Greece - yet
The U.S. is not Greece. But this does not mean we cannot learn lessons from a nation that is marked by both great beauty and regular bouts of fiscal madness.
Dow plunge is wake-up call to deal with debt
The market could be in for a very bumpy ride in the coming months -- except it won't have technical glitches to blame. U.S. debts, more likely than not, could be an underlying culprit.
Meaningless Multipliers Sank the Recovery Act, Part 1
Keynesian economists never have to "find" the jobs created; they simply make them up with multipliers.
We're All in a Race to the Bottom
There will be no winners in this economy as the government solves debt with more debt and fears of deflation increase.

Graph of the Day
Jobless claims slide more than expected
See: No Visa Required
See: Existing Home Sales
See also: Future of the Bush Tax Cuts
VIDEO: Public Pulse: how the American public views its government

Book Excerpts
"We shall find too that such current notions as that society ‘acts’ or that it ‘treats’, ‘rewards’, or ‘remunerates’ persons, or that it ‘values’ or ‘owns’ or ‘controls’ objects or services, or is ‘responsible for’ or ‘guilty of’ something, or that it has a ‘will’ or ‘purpose’, can be ‘just’ or ‘unjust’, or that the economy ‘distributes’ or ‘allocates’ resources, all suggest a false intentionalist or constructivist interpretation of words which might have been used without such connotation, but which almost invariably lead the user to illegitimate conclusions. We shall see that such confusions are at the root of the basic conceptions of highly influential schools of thought which have wholly succumbed to the belief that all rules or laws must have been invented or explicitly agreed upon by somebody. Only when it is wrongly assumed that all rules of just conduct have deliberately been made by somebody do such sophisms become plausible as that all power of making laws must be arbitrary, or that there must always exist an ultimate ‘sovereign’ source of power from which all law derives." –F.A. Hayek, Law, Legislation, and Liberty (1982)

Did You Know
Any way you slice your bagel, if you slice it in New York, it's going to cost you more. New York State tax officials are enforcing a sales tax for sliced or prepared bagels, the tax on a sliced bagel is roughly 8 cents. In 2009 2,732 restaurants were audited state-wide. That year, 646 restaurants were audited for bagel malfeasance in New York City alone. In 2010 that number jumped to 1,077.

8/25/10 Post

BUZZ: U.S. Economic Confidence Down in Recent Weeks

News
Morgan Stanley Says Government Defaults Inevitable
Investors will face defaults on government bonds given the burden of aging populations and the difficulty of securing more tax revenue, according to Morgan Stanley.
US New Home Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record
New U.S. single-family home sales unexpectedly fell in July to set their slowest pace on record while prices were the lowest in more than 6-1/2 years, government data showed on Wednesday.
Biden: 'We've seen this movie before'
VP criticizes Boehner as 'nostalgic' for Bush policies.
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Show Sign of Cooling Economy
Orders for U.S. durable goods increased less than forecast in July, a sign that one of the few remaining bright spots in the economy is cooling.
Credit Card Debt Drops to Lowest Level in 8 Years
The credit reporting agency said it was the first three-month period during which card debt fell below $5,000 since the first quarter of 2002.
Lack of Jobs, Foreclosures May Keep U.S. Housing Depressed
Sales of new homes probably held at a 330,000 annual pace in July, the second lowest on record. Bernanke's helicopter could move to new altitude
In an all-out effort to get the economy moving again, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may be getting ready to take his money-creating helicopter to a new altitude.
10 states with ridiculously low unemployment
Every U.S. state experienced job losses during the recent downturn, but thanks to the right mix of industries, natural resources, and skilled workers, some states have a far lower unemployment rate than the 9.5 percent national average.
Workplace safety violations can't just be speeding tickets
Something is wrong with the citation system if companies with unsafe practices don't get penalized until after a disaster.
Colorado Budget Cut by $60 Million
Over the past three years, the governor and legislature have cut shortfalls totaling $4.3 billion.
More employers make 401(k) enrollment automatic
The percentage of employers that offer automatic 401(k) enrollment has increased dramatically to 38%. That's more than seven times the rate in 2005, when automatic enrollment was at 5%.
I.R.S. Plan to Uncover Companies’ Tax Strategies
Beginning next year, the agency plans to mandate that corporations also provide a brief description of their uncertain tax positions and their rationale, offering essentially a road map for its auditors.
100-plus tax breaks on the line
Leaving big tax decisions to the fourth quarter isn't unusual: Congress often waits for "the two-minute warning" before voting on so-called tax extenders.
Government Says Gulf Seafood Safe
More Gulf waters are reopening to fishermen, and government officials say seafood cleared for sale has been thoroughly vetted. Whether consumers are buying those assurances — and the fish — remains to be seen.
Biden slams GOP's economic plan
Biden slammed Boehner and Republicans, saying they lack a real economic agenda that would move the country forward. Calling for “truth in advertising,” the vice president called GOP claims about Bush-era upper-income tax-cuts “a myth.”
House Could Return to Fight Over Stem Cell Research
A fall battle is shaping up over embryonic stem cell research after a federal judge ruled Monday against President Barrack Obama’s executive order allowing the research under some circumstances.
Egg recall is a golden opportunity to whip food safety into shape
More than 500 million eggs have been recalled in recent weeks because of salmonella poisoning, an outbreak that originated at a pair of Iowa farms and has spread to at least ten states.
Britain, Germany Slash and Burn Spending Programs
Powerhouse Germany and debt-ridden England have slashed and burned through social programs to salvage the euro zone economy.
'Crisis of Confidence' Sparks a Commodities Selloff
Rotation Out of Riskier Bets Leads Investors to Dump Crude, Copper and Even Cocoa; Gasoline at Lowest Since Dec. '09.

Blogs
A War We Can’t Afford to Lose
Succeeding in Afghanistan will require more patience from the American people. A summer of high casualty rates and reports about corruption of Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s administration are casting doubt among Americans about the effort.
This Just In: White House Disappointed with America…Again!
Disappointed in both America’s history and current situation, the UPR report declares to the world that the Obama Administration looks “to the future with pride and hope.”
Senators Exaggerate Number of Teachers’ Jobs in Jeopardy
In early August, when the U.S. Senate earmarked $10 billion to recover lost jobs in education, supporters of the measure claimed the money would save thousands of teachers’ jobs.
Obama to Gulf: Oil Ban Stays
When President Obama’s oil spill commission first met in July, they said that the President’s decision to ban oil drilling in the Gulf fell outside their mandate. But after a number of highly charged field hearing in the Gulf, the commission did a 180-degree reversal and promised to press the Obama administration about the ban.
The True National Debt
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must be included, pushing actual debt to $18.964 trillion.
Housing and Jobs: Underlying Problems Reemerging
The housing market and unemployment numbers will continue to worsen so long as we continue to delay recovery.
A Real Debate on Spending
From Washington’s perspective, extending current tax policy may look like a tax “cut,” but to American families paying the same amount in taxes next year as they do today, it is in no way a cut.
Biden’s Fatal Conceit
The White House’s misbegotten “Summer of Recovery” continued today with the release of another administration “analysis” that purportedly demonstrates the stimulus’s success in “transforming” the economy.
Economists React: Home Sales ‘Eye-Wateringly Weak’
Economists and others weigh in on July’s plunge in home sales.
ObamaCare on Campus
"Colleges and universities say that some rules in the new health law could keep them from offering low-cost, limited-benefit student insurance policies..."
Secondary Sources: Mortgage Funding, Japanese Deflation, Celebrity Forecasting
A roundup of economic news from around the Web.
Super-naive
Although much more mundane than the prospect of altruistic action heroes sweeping in to teach our children, giving parents choice (say, through tuition tax credits) will spark the many ordinary men and women working in K-12 schools to work harder and more creatively to educate their students.
S&P Cuts Ireland's Rating, Outlook Negative
The 10-year Ireland-to-German bond spread has risen to 318 bps, and is now above the peak during the European crisis in May.
Munger on rent-seeking
Mike talks about his recent trip to Chile and looks at how the reform of the Santiago bus system is going.
Sovereign Debt Wonkery
Think of the following as an analogy. A guy is paddling down a river without realizing that he is headed toward a waterfall. When is the last point that you can warn him in time so that he can paddle to safety? It depends on how fast the river is moving, how fast he can change direction, how strongly he can paddle, and so on.
Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Growth Continued to Ease in August
This is similar to the NY Fed and Philly Fed surveys - although the Philly Fed showed contraction in August. Growth in the manufacturing sector is clearly slowing.
Econ. 101
No permanent demand for housing was created by the program. The accelerated purchase of homes had to come at the expense of future sales. Instead of stimulating the demand for housing in the future, the program depressed it.
Home Sales Plunge In July
...we're going to have to work out the aftermath in months of low home sales.

Research, Reports & Studies
Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output From April 2010 Through June 2010
The Congressional Budget analyzes the impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on the economy over the past couple of months.
How Obamacare Empowers the Medicare Bureaucracy:
The Patient Protection and Affordable Health Care Act makes statutory changes that could challenge the autonomy of physicians to treat patients as they think best, undercut the freedom of physicians to remain in private practice, and threaten the continuation of fee-for-service medicine regardless of the preferences of doctors and patients.
More Than Lip Service: Why Private Sector Engagement Is Essential
Perhaps one of the most significant lessons learned from recent U.S. disasters is that the private sector is a critical actor in the homeland security enterprise.
RCM: Wells Fargo Economics Group: Existing Home Sales Plummeted in July
Existing home sales dropped 27.2 percent in July, which was well below expectations. The monthly decline was the largest on record. Payback from the tax credit is largely responsible for the sizeable decline.

Economists’ Comments & Opinions
The Deficit Is a Symptom, Spending Is the Disease
Sometime in the next week or so, the U.S. national debt will exceed $13.4 trillion. To put that in perspective: If you earned $1 every second, it would take you 425,000 years to earn enough money to pay off that debt. And it's not likely to get much better any time soon.
Central Banks: Heads They Win, Tails We Lose
Deflation is the cleansing of the speculative excesses and a return of general population profits back to their rightful owners -- the central banks and those behind them.
Stop the Madness
Washington is spending the country into economic decline.
Geithner and Summers Must Go
"Recovery Summer" turns out to be a dud, Geithner, Summers, Vice President Joe Biden and others have insisted that prosperity is just around the corner - and that if it's not, George W. Bush is to blame.
The Housing Mirage
Homeowner subsidies have only delayed the day of reckoning.
What’s Going On with Interest Rates?
What will happen to interest rates in the short run is a question that divides economists.
Obama's Housing Policies Are Killing Growth
These policies have stunted the spending of tens of millions of consumers who continue to pay high interest rates on unsecured mortgage balances which, absent those policies, would have been compromised and written off long ago.
Putting the Brakes on ObamaCare
How a Republican Congress could begin the process of repealing this unpopular law.
HELMER: Global warmists abandoned fact for fancy
To understand climate hysteria, we need look no further than the Watergate advice: "Follow the money."

Graph of the Day
Mercatus Center: Update: Stimulus Funds and Unemployment
See: Trading Places
See: Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears
See: Global economy going nowhere fast
See also: Where the Stimulus (ARRA) Goes
See also: 29% vs. 16% - Found a Job, but How Good Is It?

Book Excerpts
"A people among whom there is no habit of spontaneous action for a collective interest—who look habitually to their government to command or prompt them in all matters of joint concern—who expect to have everything done for them, except what can be made an affair of mere habit and routine—have their faculties only half developed; their education is defective in one of its most important branches." –John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy with some of their Applications to Social Philosophy (1848)

Did You Know
"Budget cuts are forcing police around the country to stop responding to fraud, burglary and theft calls as officers focus limited resources on violent crime. Cutbacks in such places as Oakland, Tulsa and Norton, Mass. have forced police to tell residents to file their own reports — online or in writing — for break-ins and other lesser crimes."

8/24/10 Post

BUZZ: Existing-Home Sales Plunged in July

News
Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar
A week ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a new program of "quantitative easing" (QE), with the Fed purchasing U.S. Treasury securities and paying for those securities by creating billions of dollars in new monetary base. Treasury bond prices surged on the action. Unfortunately, the unintended side effect of this policy shift is likely to be an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar.
Dollar's post-election dive a 'knee-jerk reaction'
Australia’s volatile local currency is taking its cues from offshore again after diving one US cent on Monday over uncertainty about the federal election result.
State tax hikes could go too far
Some U.S. states facing steep budget gaps have resorted to tax policies that could be harmful over the long term.
New Fees Weighed for Mortgage Industry
The Obama administration may propose that any federal backing of mortgages be paid for through fees on the lending industry, according to people familiar with the internal discussions.
Yen soars to 15-year high against dollar
The Japanese yen surged to a fresh 15-year high against the U.S. dollar Tuesday, after the Japanese government failed to say it would take steps to curb the currency's strength amid growing concerns about the pace of the recovery.
John Boehner says Obama economic team should resign
House Republican leader John Boehner on Tuesday called for the resignation of President Barack Obama's embattled economic team, including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House economic adviser Larry Summers.
Health Care Law: Paperwork Burden Could be Repealed
The requirement would hit about 38 million businesses, charities and tax-exempt organizations, many of them small businesses already swamped by government paperwork, according to a recent report by the National Taxpayer Advocate, an independent watchdog within the Internal Revenue Service.
Fed divided on Aug decision to buy Treasuries: report
At least seven of the 17 top Federal Reserve officials at the U.S. central bank's August meeting had reservations about the decision to buy more Treasuries.
Greek Banks Pressured to Merge as Economy Hurts Profits
Greek banks are under growing political pressure to merge as second-quarter earnings probably slumped on rising loan losses and worsening asset quality in the debt-burdened country.
Credit card interest rates are through the roof
The average interest rate on existing cards jumped to 14.7% last quarter, up from 13.1% a year earlier.
Taleb's Pessimism Lures CIC
China's Sovereign-Wealth Fund Is in Talks to Invest in Universa's Bearish Wagers.
Bacon prices sizzle. Consumers feel the heat.
Last week, prices of pork bellies -- from which bacon is cut -- jumped to an all-time high of $1.42 a pound. Prices have soared more than 200% from a year ago.
Contentious times for Bernanke and the Fed
Divisions among the 17 key Federal Reserve officials about how to deal with the economic situation reached a peak at their meeting earlier this month.
Stocks retreat following overseas markets lower;
U.S. traders braced for another disappointing report on the housing market later in the day. Overseas markets tumbled.
No fed cash for stem cell research
A federal judge on Monday issued a temporary ban on federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, sidetracking President Barack Obama’s executive order which had expanded federal funding for human stem cell research last year.
Economic Slowdown Is One for the Textbooks
What is occurring is practically a textbook slowdown: The stock market sells off, leading economic indicators roll over, economists mark down their growth forecasts and earnings growth slumps. It is the speed of it all that is remarkable.
What to watch in Tuesday's primaries
Five states — Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma and Vermont — go to the polls Tuesday but only three of them can point to primary elections that are being closely monitored by a national audience.
New Ads Urge Democrats to Support Health Care Repeal
Heritage Foundation is hoping to pressure Democrats, who voted against the final health care bill, to sign a discharge petition that would force an up-or-down vote on a repeal of the health care reform law.
Bank Sovereign-Debt Disclosures Get Muddied
A primary goal of Europe's recent "stress" tests of its banks was to illuminate their holdings of potentially risky government-issued debt. But that clarity has been fleeting.

Blogs
Secondary Sources: Tax Cuts, Americans’ Pessimism, Health Care Costs
A roundup of economic news from around the Web.
A Consensus to Question
Old consensus: we need Freddie and Fannie in order to make housing "affordable." New consensus: we need them in order to "prevent further house price declines," in other words, to make housing less affordable.
Presumptions Matter
According to Paul Krugman, for government not to raise taxes is for government “to cut checks” to persons whose taxes aren’t raised...
Health Insurance Coverage at Small and Large Firms
...we've mined the Kaiser Family Foundation's 2009 Annual Survey of Employer Health Benefits, which breaks the data down by plan type.
A Failure to Tax Is Not a ‘Corrupt’ Government Giveaway
[Krugman] sees individuals’ incomes as government’s to give back, not something they have an implicit right to keep. This column is far less useful for its policy arguments than it is as a window on how Krugman views the world.
Credit Card Interest Rates Much Higher
The spread on credit card interest--the difference between the interest rate on your charges, and the Treasury benchmark rate--is the highest it's been in 22 years.
Krugman's Way-Too-Simple Mode
...there's absolutely no notion of capital or the idea that production takes time here.
Further sentences to ponder, or my Arnold Kling imitation
"63% of the Political Class think the government has the consent of the governed, but only six percent (6%) of those with Mainstream views agree."
Macroeconomic Puzzles
Trying to explain why those $20 bills are left on the sidewalk is what leads one in the direction of Zero Marginal Product and the Recalculation Story.
Federal Bailout of GM Still Horribly Wrong
Our friends at The Economist magazine usually talk good sense about free trade and free markets, which makes their retrospective endorsement of the government bailout of General Motors all the more disappointing.
Public Schools Are Modern Monuments to Profligacy
It’s the hot new public-sector trend; massively expensive K-12 school buildings.
Confused Administration Keeps Pushing Conventional Arms Treaties
No wonder U.S. policy toward these treaties is muddled.
“When Liberalism Doesn’t Work It Discredits Liberalism”
It is far past time for the federal government to stop mucking up the housing market. The government should end the interventions it has made since 2008, starting with abolition of the TARP program.
First Principles and Foreign Policy
The Heritage Foundation believes that the first principles on which the United States was founded must guide its foreign as well as its domestic policy.
Housing Isn't Really Dead
To suggest that real estate as an asset class is gone forever is to grossly misunderstand not only housing, but the nature of human progress itself.
Is Printing Money Really Safe in This Strange Market?
Even if the bond market rally has a little more gas left in the tank, anything being propelled by the promise of freely printed money is becoming suspect.
Why the US Dollar Is Key to How the Markets Unfold
The future of stocks and gold will be determined as the dollar heads into its yearly cycle low.

Research, Reports & Studies
America's Best (and Worst) Cities for School Reform: Attracting Entrepreneurs and Change Agents
Which of thirty major U.S. cities have cultivated a healthy environment for school reform to flourish (and which have not)?
Guessing the Trigger Point for a U.S. Debt Crisis
This paper explores the possibility of the U.S. experiencing a debt crisis in the medium run, meaning somewhere between 2015 and 2035. It is impossible to state precisely the trigger point for a crisis. At best, we can make guesses about some of the key parameters.
New Technologies, Future Weapons: Gene Sequencing and Synthetic Biology
With every technological advancement, comes new national security risks. Without a clear understanding of the actual risks associated with synthetic biology, the U.S. is in danger of responding to fears with overregulation
Make China Account for Its Dismal Human Rights Record
Successive editions of the U.S. Department of State’s annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices have documented China’s lack of progress in human rights, ranging from continued abuses in Tibet to imprisonment and harsh treatment of political prisoners to a general crackdown on religious groups that are not sanctioned by the government.

Economists’ Comments & Opinions
Virginia Is for Surpluses
Erasing red ink without a tax increase.
Lessons from the Bell, California Fiasco
High government salaries means soaring pension costs that taxpayers cannot afford.
The Politics of Plastic
The war against credit cards is raising costs and harming consumers.
The public workers you support
This stark picture clearly reflects upside-down priorities -- particularly if officials care about boosting the truly productive parts of the economy.
Social Security in 2015: Red Ink Returns for Good
When America’s most successful social welfare program starts to run permanently in the red in 2015, people may start to look at it in a whole new way.
Why Small Businesses Aren’t Hiring
...unless we fix the residential real estate mess, we won’t see small business hiring anytime soon.
Obama Misreads Message of ‘Live Free or Die’: Amity Shlaes
The results of the government experiment are in, courtesy of the states. Double dips are more likely with policies like [Obama's].
The Fed Can Create Money, Not Confidence
Inflation—or stagflation—remains the more serious danger than deflation.
Hyperinflation Is Fiscal, Not Monetary Phenomenon
Too many analysts believe there has to be some economic demand or some consumption to stimulate inflation or hyperinflation.
The Road to Stagflation
The Fed is dealing with underlying problems by papering them over, which will lead to inflation and economic stagnation.
Reagan’s Words Still Speak Volumes Today
“This is the issue of this election: Whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether we abandon the American revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far-distant capitol can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves….A government can’t control the economy without controlling people. And they know when a government sets out to do that, it must use force and coercion to achieve its purpose.”
Beware the light at the end of the tunnel
It's a debt train about to collide with federal obligations.
Social Security Is "Beyond Comprehension"
There is work that has been done in the past where we looked at what people thought their benefit was going to be, relative to what it turned out to be. It showed that even people who were right on the verge of retirement are all over the place in terms of being able to predict the benefit.

A major message of economics is that incentives often don't predict outcomes. We call this 'the invisible hand.' -Garett Jones, Twitter

Graph of the Day
Obama's failed Stimulus Program cost more than the Iraq War
See: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (SA)
See also: Visa Waiver Program Promotes Travel to the U.S.

Book Excerpts
"I believe it can be demonstrated that many of what are said to be the great problem areas of urban America—housing, transportation, school systems, tax burdens, etc.—are directly traceable to overextension of government's role in human affairs." –Benjamin A. Rogge, Can Capitalism Survive? (1979)

Did You Know
"China is working to unclog the world's longest traffic jam stretching from Beijing to the northern province of Inner Mongolia. This 60 mile backup has resulted in cars and trucks only traveling about 2 miles per day. This traffic jam as also resulted in local entrepreneurs setting up shop on the highway selling food and water."