Tax News Nov. 15-19

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News
FRIDAY
Weekend Votes Unlikely for Senate; Tax Cuts Still Up in the Air
Senate Democrats seemed likely to ward off working into the weekend with a vote on food safety legislation Thursday night, but they still had no clear path forward on extending Bush-era tax cuts.
Euro Zone: Careful What You Wish for on Irish Taxes
European politicians tempted to take aim at Ireland's ultralow 12.5% corporate-tax rate might want to think again, and not only because their Irish counterparts seem willing to defend it to the death.
Once Routine, Tax Breaks Pose Test
Senate Democrats plan to push a bill next month that would cut at least $60 billion in taxes by extending breaks for an array of individuals and businesses, setting up an early test of Republicans' deficit-cutting resolve.

THURSDAY
South Korea’s Bond Tax May Spur Other Nations to Raise Barriers
South Korea’s revival of a tax on foreigners investing in its bonds may prompt more emerging markets to act to curb fund inflows driving up their currencies.
Corporate tax threat to Irish industrial policy
Geographically on Europe’s edge, and generally labelled “peripheral” in analyses of the eurozone...

WEDNESDAY
Another Deficit Plan Targets Taxes
The report, co-authored by Democratic budget veteran Alice Rivlin and former Sen. Pete Domenici (R., N.M.), follows a separate proposal last week by the two chairmen of President Barack Obama's deficit commission. The many similarities between the two offer a window into the types of proposals that might win backing as Washington launches into what is likely to be a protracted debate on deficit cutting.
Efforts to Extend Bush-Era Tax Cuts Falter as Talks Are Delayed
President Barack Obama and congressional leaders postponed until Nov. 30 a White House meeting, previously scheduled for tomorrow, to negotiate whether to extend lower tax rates for all taxpayers or just those with incomes of $250,000 or less.
Geithner Expects a Deal on Tax Cuts
Treasury Secretary Says Reaching an Accord Is 'Not Rocket Science'; Temporary Extension of All Bush-Era Rates Seen as Likely

TUESDAY
Bush tax cuts: Cutting through the noise
If the tax cuts do expire and tax rates go up, you may notice the difference in your wallet as early as January, when your employer starts to withhold more taxes from your paycheck.
New Yorkers Favor Higher Taxes Over Spending Cuts, Poll Shows
More than half of New York state voters oppose spending cuts in education or health care, “even if it means raising taxes,” according to a Siena Research Institute poll.

MONDAY
White House, GOP look for middle ground on taxes
The White House and Republican lawmakers set the terms of a looming tax debate Sunday, coalescing around a possible temporary extension of existing income tax rates that would protect middle-class and wealthy Americans from sharp tax increases next year.
Bush tax cuts: What nobody is talking about
Many tax policy watchers are nevertheless convinced that ultimately lawmakers will opt for a temporary one- or two-year extension for everyone.

Economist Comments
FRIDAY
Soda Tax, Will it Actually Help Lower Obesity Rates?
...overall diet and exercise are hugely important and some lucky souls (good genes!) can ingest extra calories with impunity, anyway.
There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Tax Subsidy, Either
Until someone comes up with something pithier than “tax revenue forgone due to targeted tax preferences,” I’ll stick with that.

THURSDAY
Allyson Schwartz: Extend cuts up to $500,000
Schwartz’s proposal is less generous than others circulating on Capitol Hill, including ideas to extend the tax cuts for earnings up to $1 million.
The Done-Nothing 111th and Taxes
Congress could have created tax certainty for 2010 and the years ahead, but it has failed to do so, so far.

WEDNESDAY
Wrong on Taxes
[Hubbard] does regret that the plan isn’t more radical in moving toward a consumption-based tax rather than an income-based one, and he regrets that it proposes to treat capital gains and dividends as ordinary income, since this move continues the tradition of favoring consumption over saving and investment.
Tax Hikes and the Small Business Job Machine
The president says only the rich will be hit with the highest rates. Nonsense.
Lifting the Payroll Tax Cap Will Only Increase Spending
There is roughly $2.5 trillion in the Social Security Trust Fund, made of the extra payroll tax collected from taxpayers since 1983. However, the Social Security Trust Fund is required by law to purchase Treasury securities with its tax income, which means that the fund contains $2.5 trillion worth of IOUs. Treasury has long spent this $2.5 trillion as part of the general fund — so, in other words, since 1983, Social Security taxes have been subsidizing other parts of the federal government. More importantly, it means that if we put more money into the trust funds, it will just increase the federal government’s spending power.

TUESDAY
Taxpayers Taking a Hit in Struggles of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and It Could Get Worse
"It's probably likely to be closer to $500 billion by the time all of this is finished," David Johns of the Heritage Foundation said. "And you and I get to pay that."
Left, Right and Wrong on Taxes
As Messrs. Bowles and Simpson aptly demonstrate, we are in a difficult situation in large part because we have designed entitlements for a welfare state we cannot afford. And, perhaps less obviously, they show how we have used the tax code as a vehicle for special-purpose spending that weakens both the efficiency and fairness of our tax system.
Getting 'Tax Cuts For Rich' Backward
The Obama administration's problem is it's so focused on the distribution of the golden eggs, it's neglected the health of the goose.

MONDAY
What will the lame duck Congress do with the Bush tax cuts?
The returning Congress has only two must-do jobs. It needs to pass a stopgap spending bill to keep the government functioning into next year, and it must address a slew of expiring tax cuts.
Obama: “I Want to Make Sure That Taxes Don’t Go Up”
Of course, the problem is that President Obama does want taxes to go up for business owners, corporate executives, and investors on January 1, the very people whose decisions have the most immediate impact on economic growth and job creation.
New governors: Budget cuts not tax hikes
These newly elected officials, along with the incumbents, are staring at budget gaps totaling least $72 billion for fiscal 2012, which starts in July in most states, according to the state legislatures group.
Reduce out-of-control spending now
Under the Democrats’ one-party reign the last two years, the size of government has exploded and the United States has added an unprecedented $2.7 trillion to the national debt, amounting to nearly $5 billion dollars a day.

Blogs
FRIDAY
Tariffs of Obama-Nation
Maybe this wouldn’t be such a horror story if there was any economic evidence that tariffs were good for an economy.
A Solution to the Tax Mess
Scoreboard has the answer to the tax mess. Put off any tax increase for at least three years, making it a referendum for the 2012 elections.

THURSDAY
Soda Taxes Are Still Not a Substitute for Real Tax Reform
It is ironic then that BPC would suggest pop taxes which have been repeatedly shown to be unfair, unfavorable to economic growth, and impose different tax burden on people with the same income.
Film Tax Credits Aren’t Big Job Generators
In Massachusetts, each job created by the tax credit and filled by a state resident cost $88,000 in tax revenue. In Michigan, $44,561 in revenue is lost for every local job created in connection with the tax credit.
Vero on Tyler on the capital gains tax
"...the incidence of capital gains taxes on new capital is largely, through incidence, bounced onto consumers and labor."

WEDNESDAY
GM Benefits from Tax Law Ruling
A WSJ article of November 3, 2010, by Randall Smith and Sharon Terlep, points to a little-noticed IRS ruling on GM’s tax-loss carryforwards from years prior to the bailout. The amount at issue is potentially $45 billion.
Bowles-Simpson plan raises everybody's taxes
In 2015, the lowest earners would face an average cut in their after-tax income of 3.4 percent or about $400. Middle-income households (those earning an average of about $60,000) would see their after-tax incomes fall by 4 percent or about $1,900. On the other end of the economic food chain, the top one percent of earners (who earn an average of about $2 million) would lose about $77,000 (5.3 percent) while the top 0.1 percent would see their after-tax incomes cut by nearly 8 percent, or close to $500,000.

TUESDAY
Agony Over the Property Tax Cap
At the New Jersey League of Municipalities convention to be held in Atlantic City tomorrow officials will be focused on a central problem, “How are we going to run our towns while keeping property tax growth below 2 percent?”
The Deficit Commission's Plan for Personal Income Taxes
While the Bowles-Simpson zero plan tax proposal lists the tax rates they believe should apply, they didn't specify at what income levels they would apply.

MONDAY
More Money Matters: The Debt Commission Budget Cuts You Haven’t Heard
The United States government is the largest property owner in the country, with 1.2 million buildings, structures, and plots of land totaling 650 million acres. The Debt Commission says 64 thousand of those buildings and structures are either excessive, underutilized, or vacant, and should be sold to the highest bidder.

Reports
WEDNESDAY
Staff Commentary: The Rationale for Low Capital Gains Tax Rates
A number of dynamic analyses have found that the negative economic feedback effects of higher capital gains tax rates mean that the scheduled tax hikes will bring in little to no additional revenue, and could even increase budget deficits.

MONDAY
Punitive Damages and the Tax Code: Punishing Business and the Economy
...eliminating the deductibility of punitive damages will encourage plaintiffs’ lawyers to file even more lawsuits, further clogging dockets across the country and increasing the cost of litigation.
Obama’s Tax Hikes on High-Income Earners Will Hurt the Poor—and Everyone Else
Senior citizens are hurt the most by the imminent tax increases because retired people rely disproportionately on dividend pay­ments for their income.

Health Care News Nov. 15-19

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News
FRIDAY
Senators Agree on One-Month Extension of ‘Doc Fix’
The Senate on Thursday evening passed a one-month extension of the current Medicare physician payment rates in an effort to avert a 23 percent cut scheduled to take effect Dec. 1. Doctors have threatened to stop taking new Medicare patients if the cuts go through, and experts warned that the situation would undermine the health care program for 46 million elderly and disabled individuals.
Dems Lean on Republicans to Forgo Coverage
With repealing the health care overhaul law a priority for Republicans, some House Democrats want GOP congressional leaders to identify which of their members are willing to opt out of their congressional health insurance benefits, which are subsidized by taxpayers.
Private Medicare Plans Are Retrenching
Seniors enrolling in private Medicare policies starting this week are finding fewer options, as health insurers close down certain types of plans due to legislative changes and looming cuts to federal funding.

WEDNESDAY
GOP Waits on Obamacare Repeal
Congressional Republicans will hold off on trying to repeal the health care reform law until January when their hand will be strenghtened with a Hosue majority and greater numbers in the Senate.
Doctors: Congress should act fast on Medicare pay
Just back from recess, Congress is staring at a deadline that will result in a dramatic cut in Medicare payments to doctors if no action is taken.

TUESDAY
Health-care reform in GOP cross hairs
Republicans plan an all-out assault on the new health-care reform law, which they see as the biggest symbol of over-reach by Democrats. President Obama's veto pen is the first defense.

MONDAY
Approved Applications for Waiver of the Annual Limits Requirements of the PHS Act
Obama White House Hands Out 111 Obamacare Waivers.
Doctors brace for possible big Medicare pay cuts
Doctors have muddled through with temporary reprieves for years. This time, medical groups estimate that as many as two-thirds of doctors would stop taking new Medicare patients, throwing the health program for 46 million older and disabled people into turmoil just when the first baby boomers will become eligible.
Medicare in Hot Seat During Lame Duck
Lawmakers must address an expiring Medicare payment formula and will question the government program's administrator during the lame duck.
Navigating Through Medicare's Alphabet Soup
The so-called open enrollment period for Medicare starts Nov. 15, which means folks have the option of changing the type of plan they have. It can be daunting, particularly understanding the differences among plans A, B, C and D. But don’t let it stop you from investigating. Even if you feel comfortable with the plan you’re in, it is important to keep an open mind.

Economist Comments
FRIDAY
Rivlin-Domenici Put Medicare on a Weight Loss Diet
The latest entry in the deficit reduction sweepstakes from the Bipartisan Policy Center calls for a major overhaul of Medicare financing that would turn most of the program over to the private insurance industry and cap government support.

THURSDAY
Retirees Seeking Help With Medicare
Now 45 years old, Medicare has become too much of a good thing-;too big, too costly and far too complicated. In the past few years, we've seen the introduction of prescription drug coverage, the indexing of premiums for doctors' services and, this summer, a shake-up in supplemental insurance plans, known as Medigap.

WEDNESDAY
GOP ideas can fix health care reform
Americans made it clear in the midterm elections that they oppose a new policy that puts Washington largely in control of their health care. Almost 60 percent of voters, according to Rasmussen exit polling, support efforts to repeal and replace President Barack Obama’s new health care law.

TUESDAY
Debunking Richard Cohen: How Does the U.S. Health Care System Stack Up?
The U.S.'s focus on subsidizing health care for the elderly, for whom medical interventions are more frequent, costly, intensive, and arguably more beneficial, and to whose future health non-medical factors matter less on the margin.
Feulner: The only sure cure for Obamacare
Americans should fight for a full repeal of the unpopular reform law.

MONDAY
Reforming Health Care Online Chat
There is a lot that needs to be done but with the right education we can hold congress accountable and make sure they do what they were elected to do.

Blogs
FRIDAY
A Health Care Fix Bernie Sanders and Tim Pawlenty Can Both Love?
When the Affordable Care Act was but a glimmer in President Obama's eye, Wyden and Republican Sen. Bob Bennett, of Utah, introduced the Healthy Americans Act. This health care reform bill was widely praised by health policy experts and economists and had support from some key Republicans and Democrats.
Time to Clean Up the Medicare Doctor Payment Mess
Congress should fix the Medicare payment system—but not add one dime to the deficit in doing it. It could do this by sequestering a portion of the projected $575 billion in Medicare savings they just enacted in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act to offset the additional costs—well over $200 billion in 10 years. Congress should also extend the fix for longer than one month and require that Congress enact a permanent fix to this problem during this temporary fix.

THURSDAY
Breaking Health Care Research: Repealing Obamacare and Getting Health Care Right
As newly elected lawmakers prepare for the hard work to be done in the next Congress, the future of the hugely unpopular Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act hangs in the balance.
In Health Care, No Free Lunch
The closer we get towards 2014, the more I am skeptical of the idea that this program is going to get more popular as it goes forward.  Would people like to be able to buy cheap insurance that offers them a lot of coverage and choices?  Of course.  But pooling only gets you so far in reducing costs. And it comes with a major downside:  in order to get the benefits, you have to force everyone to buy insurance.

WEDNESDAY
Who Should Control Your Health Care, You Or The Government?
We can have a bottom-up, not top-down, health care system where individuals have much greater personal choice because they would control their health care dollar. But that system can never come about under Obamacare. If the American people want to be the ones making their own health care decisions, then priority number one is the full repeal of Obamacare.
The Berwick Hearing’s Best Focus: Obamacare’s Effects on Doctors and Patients
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Administrator Dr. Donald Berwick this morning is expected to testify before Congress in his first appearance since a controversial recess appointment in June. He will talk before the Senate Finance Committee.
AARP Employees Face Premium Hikes As Result of New Law
Health care reform was supposed to “bend the cost curve” in health care and reduce the amount that American families pay in health care premiums.  This was the message the nation received from proponents of the new law, which included organizations such as AARP.

TUESDAY
Provenge Controversy Argues for Medicare Vouchers
If the government stayed out of health care, or just subsidized Medicare enrollees with a voucher, then both cancer survivors would get their wish.  Cancer Survivor #1 could purchase coverage for expensive cancer treatments.  Cancer Survivor #2, and millions like her, could buy lower-cost insurance and donate the savings to scholarships.

MONDAY
Texas Considers Opting out of Medicaid
With an increase in Medicaid enrollments due to health care reform on the horizon and an estimated $21 billion budget shortfall, Texas is considering opting out of Medicaid.
Health Care and Socialist Calculation
Pricing a medical service can be thought of as two problems. First, come up with the measurable unit of output. Second, set a price for that service.

Reports
THURSDAY
Preliminary Analysis of the Rivlin-Ryan Health Care Proposal
Congressman Ryan and his staff recently provided specifications for a proposal that would substantially change federal payments under the Medicare and Medicaid programs. Although an extensive analysis of that proposal is not feasible in the time available, CBO has conducted a preliminary analysis of its major provisions—the results of which are summarized here.

WEDNESDAY
State Medicaid Reform After Obamacare
States should not remain silent or complacent about the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), especially the law’s new Medicaid provisions. States should push back and forge ahead with transformative reforms that would fix the broken Medicaid program.

General Economic News Nov. 15-19

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News
FRIDAY
A far from random walk from Wall Street
Now, as in the wake of the Great Depression, a generation of investors may have become alienated from the stock market.
Wind energy, solar power face cloudy future
After years of rapid growth and darling status among many in Washington, the future of the American renewable energy industry is uncertain.
Hunting down the hoarders
To rein in prices, the Chinese government turns to unconventional measures
Mortgage Delinquencies Decline
Number Reflects Stronger Economy, But Stubborn Jobless Rate Likely to Keep Foreclosure Rate High
Flying for the holidays won't be cheap
Air fares are up dramatically this holiday season -- so there's no point in waiting for last-minute deals because they're not going to happen, experts say.

THURSDAY
Leading Indicators Index in U.S. Climbs 0.5% for Second Month
The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in October for a fourth consecutive month on signs the Federal Reserve was preparing to take additional action to spur the world’s biggest economy.
U.K. Had Larger-Than-Expected Budget Deficit in October Amid Modest Growth
Britain had a larger budget deficit in October than economists forecast, underlining the challenge facing Prime Minister David Cameron as he tries to cut record levels of borrowing.
Greece Pledges to Cut 2011 Deficit to 7.4% of GDP With Economy Shrinking 3%
Greece’s government plans to cut the budget gap by 5 billion euros ($6.8 billion) in 2011 by reducing spending, including wages at state companies, and increasing sales taxes to meet targets under a European Union-led rescue.
Home Ownership Gets Tougher as Lenders Restrict FHA Mortgages
Home ownership may be falling out of reach for more Americans as lenders toughen their standards for Federal Housing Administration-insured loans beyond what the agency itself requires.
Massachusetts gets the new economy best
Massachusetts is well-positioned because of its many software, hardware and biotech firms, and highly competitive universities such as Harvard and MIT that churn out talented grads who can support their growth.
Fewer homeowners behind on mortgage payments
Mortgage delinquency rates dropped in the last three months -- but only because more borrowers had their homes repossessed. You can't be late on your mortgage payment if you've already lost your home.
Make Money in 2011: The Economy
Here's the happy news: Despite fears of a dreaded double dip, the economy isn't likely to slip back into recession in 2011. Unfortunately, the more probable scenario is no great shakes, either: lackluster growth and persistently high unemployment.
Goodbye, checks: States benefits move to direct deposit, debit cards
Following the federal government's lead, state governments are migrating more payments -- for everything from unemployment to child support -- away from paper checks.
Millionaire Lawmakers: Members of Congress Get Richer
Even a dismal economy didn’t prevent rich lawmakers on Capitol Hill from becoming richer. Congressional members’ personal wealth collectively increased by more than 16 percent between 2008 and 2009, according to a new study by the Center for Responsive Politics, a DC-based non-partisan think tank.
OECD Sees Uneven Euro-Zone Recovery
Recovery in the euro zone will be modest and uneven in the next two years, as deficit-reduction plans in the area weigh on growth and large imbalances in peripheral countries with high debt levels are wound down.

WEDNESDAY
Wholesale Prices Climb Only Slightly
Wholesale prices were mostly tame in October, suggesting inflation would remain subdued for the time being.
Housing starts hit lowest level in 18 months
New home construction fell to an 18-month low in October, the government said Wednesday.
GM's IPO May Raise Record Amount
General Motors Co. said Wednesday that it will increase the size of its initial public offering by about 30% to 478 million shares, which could make it the largest global IPO in history.
Inflation at lowest level since 1957
The Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, increased 1.2% over the past 12 months ending in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
Ethanol subsidy under fire
For years, American taxpayers have subsidized ethanol production in a bid to boost the nation's energy independence.

TUESDAY
U.S. Factory Production Rises by Most in Three Months
American industry churned out more automobiles, computers and appliances in October, keeping manufacturing at the head of the economic recovery that began more than year ago.
Federal report: U.S. hunger remains at highest levels in 15 years
The number of Americans fighting off hunger stayed level last year, though food insecurity rates remain the highest they have been since the federal government began keeping track 15 years ago, a Department of Agriculture report released Monday found.
Foreclosure mess could threaten banks, report
Congressional watchdog warns of the consequences to housing market
Deflation at Our Doorstep?
U.S. core producer prices unexpectedly fell in October to post their largest decline in more than four years, according to a government report on Tuesday that underscored the Federal Reserve's concerns about the low inflation environment.
Make Money in 2011: Your Savings
Savers, steel yourselves for another low-yield year. Interest rates on savings accounts, CDs, and money markets have been barely there for a while -- bank savings accounts are paying a paltry 0.2% on average, while money-market funds offer a dismal 0.04%.
Banks face $52 billion mortgage hit
The big banks could fork over $52 billion to make good on souring mortgages sold to investors, a government watchdog said.
The overshoot continues
It’s getting to be a habit, and an embarrassing one at that. For the fourth time this year, Mervyn King has had to write to the chancellor of the exchequer explaining why inflation is uncomfortably high. Making matters worse, the governor of the Bank of England will be busy with his pen for some time to come. According to the bank’s own forecast published in its Inflation Report on November 10th Mr King is likely to be writing yet more letters next year to George Osborne at the Treasury. 
Jail Saves $111K By Cutting Kool-Aid, Coffee
Just by removing Kool-Aid from the menu, the county saved about $26,000 a year.
Don't Underestimate Foreclosure Crisis, Watchdog to Warn
A congressional oversight panel is set to warn on Tuesday that a widespread problem of flawed and fraudulent foreclosure paperwork could upend the housing market and undermine the nation's financial stability, just as the issue is coming under greater scrutiny this week in Washington.
In India, the World's Second Largest School Lunch Program
A global hunger index released this month by the International Food Policy Research Institute ranked India 67th out of 84 countries on indicators like child malnourishment, child mortality and calorie deficiency.
One in Four Americans Is Enrolled in a Government Food Program
More Than 17 million Households Reported Having Difficulty Buying Food in 2009.

MONDAY
Retail sales jump 1.2% in October
Retail sales rose for a fourth straight month in October, the government reported Monday, signaling that consumers are keeping their wallets open as the holiday shopping period approaches.
Secret Walmart Survey Shows Inflation Already Here
There might not have been a second round of quantative easing if Bernanke shopped at Walmart. Here is why…
Budget cuts are putting your pets at greater risk if they are lost in New York City.
Greece admits breach of bailout terms as audit begins
Greece acknowledged Monday it would breach conditions for a new installment of a 110-billion-euro bailout as the IMF and European Union began an audit of the country's austerity measures.
Cotton Prices Surge; Will You Pay?
Cotton Costs Surge on Commodities Exchanges; Consumers Warned to Brace Themselves
Farm Economy Heading for Record Driving Surge in U.S. Cropland
The best second-half for commodities in a generation is pushing U.S. farm incomes and agricultural land prices toward record highs.
Democrats to push for $250 Social Security payment
When House Democrats return to Washington on Monday, a top priority will be putting a $250 dollar check in the mail to 58 million Social Security recipients.
APEC countries agree to launch massive new free-trade zone
The 21 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) agreed Sunday to 'take concrete steps toward realizing a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific' in coming years.
The Washington Punch List
With the economy front and center, we're keeping a close eye on Congress and Obama. Stay tuned for updates on what they get done – and what gets punted.
Make Money in 2011: Your Home
Location, location, location. In the latter half of 2011 that adage should come back into vogue. But first, more declines.
New York state manufacturing plunges: NY Fed
New York state manufacturing unexpectedly plunged in November, the first contraction since July 2009 when the US economy exited recession, official data showed Monday.
Few Americans Would Use Cash Windfall to Start a Business
Chinese more likely than Americans, Europeans to invest in business
Economic Reports This Week
Data this week will include retail sales for October and business inventories for September (Monday); the Producer Price Index for October and industrial production and capacity utilization for October (Tuesday); the Consumer Price Index for October and housing starts for October (Wednesday); weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and leading economic indicators for October (Thursday).
Downturn Bites This Time for Beer, Tobacco
In past recessions smokers and beer drinkers kept puffing and quaffing. This time it could be different.

Economist Comments
FRIDAY
Obama's Economic Policies Unpopular Abroad, Too
Mr. Obama has chosen to serve the narrow interests of two domestic automakers and their union rather than the overall economic and strategic interests of the American people.
Europe Confronts Stein’s Law
If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. This aphorism appears particularly apt for the current Eurozone.
Washington is making the housing crisis even worse
Bad policy and a bad economy make it a terrible time to buy. Instead of pushing cheap credit, Uncle Sam must let the market lower prices.
GM IPO Continues Trend of Rewarding Those Who Failed
What do the General Motors and the nation's big banks have in common? They've both been bailed out by the federal government and, were it not for government largess, neither would be here today celebrating the automaker's largely successful stock offering.
Oh, Did We Ever Get Stuck-o
Groucho was right. And housing will remain depressed despite what government tries to do.
An IPO for Uncle
The government partnership with GM is a long way from over.
The Central Importance of Statistics
The Chinese government is extremely enthusiastic about managing their economy, and they put a lot of thought into it.  But the lack of good statistics on economic performance makes an already near-impossible challenge even more daunting

THURSDAY
U.S. Taxpayers Recover Billions in Sale of G.M. Stock
American taxpayers’ ownership of General Motors was halved on Wednesday, and billions of dollars in bailout money was returned to the federal government, as a result of the nation’s largest initial stock offering ever.

WEDNESDAY
Stimulus: Still Not Working!
Unbelievably, the administration and its allies keep insisting that a failed policy was a success.
U.S. Sets 50 Bank Probes
FDIC Steps Up Investigations at Failed Lenders; 'These Numbers Will Increase'
Body Scanners: The Naked Truth
The body scanners coming to your local airport provide marginal benefits — if any — in detecting weapons and explosives hidden on travelers. They aren't worth the cost in money — let alone in civil liberties.
You and Your Neighbor's Pork
The unspoken rule on Capitol Hill is, "Don't criticize my pork; I won't criticize yours." But regardless of how one feels about earmarks, lawmakers should pay closer attention to their colleagues' projects — because this pork isn't getting distributed equally. Vast regions of the nation are getting the short end of the stick.

TUESDAY
Why the 2011 outlook is dismal
Many of the tailwinds that helped the economy during the past 18 months will turn into headwinds, leaving us little hope but for 0%-2% GDP growth.
Data Suggest Economy Is Finally Improving
While there are still possible wrenches, recent reports show that the economy is at the very least flattening out.
Washington's Equal Pay Obsession
There's no epidemic of gender discrimination. So why is Congress proposing another law?
What caused the financial crisis
Expert points to government policy, not greedy bankers
The GOP Earmark Victory
The party takes a big first step toward public trust.

MONDAY
Economic Success Reliant On Private Firms
It's hard to remember now that in the 1980s Japan had the world's most-admired economy. It would, people widely believed, achieve the highest living standards and pioneer the niftiest technologies. Nowadays, all we hear are warnings not to repeat Japan's mistakes that resulted in a "lost decade" of economic growth.
Maybe It's Not Different This Time
Seen historically, and not just in the context of the last 20 years, valuation levels of the S&P 500 index may still be very elevated.

Blogs
FRIDAY
Raining on GM’s Parade
It’s General Motors’ big day. With a large and successful initial initial public offering, GM reduces the U.S. government’s ownership share and tempts bailout backers to declare victory. While GM has certainly done far better than we might have feared, questions remain about the company’s future and the verdict on the bailout.
Don’t Blame Ireland’s Mess on Low Corporate Tax Rates
Is there any reason to think Ireland’s competitive corporate tax regime is responsible for the nation’s economic crisis? The answer, not surprisingly, is no.
Our Economy Can’t Afford More GM “Success” Stories
Celebrating the company’s Wednesday initial public offering, President Barack Obama last night called his government takeover of General Motors a “success story.” “American taxpayers are now positioned to recover more than my administration invested in GM,” he said. Left unsaid is the fact that if the Obama Administration keeps selling their GM stock at the IPO price, the U.S. taxpayer will lose $10 billion on the deal, and that does not include the loans GM still owes, cash for clunkers, the Chevy Volt subsidies, or the millions of unseen costs the unprecedented intervention has inflicted on our economy.
NATO Countries Meet in Lisbon
NATO has become an end in itself, rather than a means to an end — security — that could command support on both sides of the Atlantic, and unpopular one, at that.
What to Expect From Holiday Sales
Data show that most consumers will be cutting back this season, but upper-income shoppers will actually be kicking it up a notch.

THURSDAY
The Obama Administration’s Self-Destructive Trade Policy
If U.S. trade negotiators want to maintain their ability to negotiate bilateral agreements, they should quit demanding one-sided concessions from South Korea.
What I Learned From the Crisis
I still think that technocratic economists select better monetary policies than elected politicians would.  But after 2008, that's not saying much.
Does The FDA Really Need More Power?
The reality is that there is little known medical evidence that caffeinated malt beverages are less safe than other alcoholic drinks. But that fact is no defense against current FDA power to ban products it deems unsafe for the American people.

WEDNESDAY
Paycheck Fairness Act Will Fatten Paychecks for Trial Lawyers, Not Women
The most recent economic research suggests that paycheck fairness is already a reality, and therefore women’s pay won’t change much if the “Paycheck Fairness Act” passes. There is, however, one group whose paychecks might get a lot fatter if new legislation goes into effect: trial lawyers, an important point made by June O’Neill in the Wall Street Journal (“this new legislation would simply provide a feast for lawyers”), AEI’s Christina Hoff Sommers recently in the New York Times, and last week by the Chicago Tribune.
Let Markets Civilize Airport Security
Privatization is the solution to such conflicts.
Lame-Duck Menace: The Paycheck Fairness Act
Let’s assume that John and Jane have identical characteristics (education, work experience, etc.) except for gender. ABC Company makes offers of employment to John and Jane on the same day, for the same position, for the same starting salary: $45,000. Jane accepts the offer, but John negotiates the salary, and ends up with $50,000. Under the current equal pay laws, there’s no problem; John is earning more because he negotiated and Jane did not. Makes sense, right? Under the Paycheck Fairness Act, ABC Company would be guilty of gender discrimination.
Free-Market Poverty Solutions: A Better Poverty Measurement Is A Good Step
Missing in news reports on the recent release of the United Nations 2010 Human Development Report is any mention of a significant addition to the report.  For the first time, the HDR includes the Multidimensional Poverty Index, which measures poverty based on components other than income and GDP.  The Index rates countries’ poverty levels based on health, education, and living standards, including elements such as nutrition, child mortality, years of schooling, access to water, electricity, and more
Reid’s Lame Duck Energy Bill: More Money for Special Interests, Higher Costs for the Rest of Us
It’s highly unlikely that we’re going to see any large energy bills like a cap and trade or renewable electricity standard passed during the lame duck session, but that isn’t stopping Senator Harry Reid (D–NV) from moving forward with bad energy policy.

TUESDAY
GDP comparisons: Numbers don't lie
The numbers are clear: some nations have a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) equal to that of nations with 10 or 100 times as many people. Why?
Seeing Like a Central Planner
The main part of my argument is that government workers are not underpaid. I would like to make 2 points to suport this.
New survey reveals soaring rates for some store credit cards
Signing up for a store credit card can seem like a good way to survive the holidays. But these cards often come with significant gotchas, as a study released this week by Representative Anthony Weiner (D-Queens and Brooklyn) again proves. Surveying credit card offers from 35 major retailers in New York City, the inquiry found rates as high as 29 percent, or nearly double that of average credit cards. Radio Shack, Best Buy, Staples, Home Depot, and Sears were the five worst offenders.
Abolish the TSA
Art Carden has an excellent article on Forbes.com in which he advocates abolishing the TSA. I give a segment on this in my econ class when I discuss, at length, Hayek's "The Use of Knowledge in Society." How does Hayek's article apply?
A Subsidized Spokesman
This CNBC interview of a subsidized farmer, along with my friend Sallie James of Cato, is interesting for a number of reasons.  The one I wish to flag here is the farmer’s insinuation that Sallie’s (and Cato’s) opposition to farm subsidies and tariffs is questionable because that opposition allegedly reflects nothing more that Cato’s funding.
The economics of natural disasters
A new report from the World Bank asks how much suffering is due to natural hazards, and how much due to human decisions.
An Iffy Outlook For Holiday Sales
Most consumers are of two minds--they want to see the economy improve and they also want to see rock bottom prices (50% OFF) on the things they will be buying for the holidays. The contradiction is one most of us live with, and it's one reason why retailers can't seem to get traction.

MONDAY
Why Does American Exceptionalism Matter?
The reality of American exceptionalism was a theme on the campaign trail, especially among conservatives. Americans agree that the United States is a great nation, but why is America exceptional and why does it matter?
Productivity Changes May Boost Labor-Market Prospects
U.S. companies are getting better at boosting their productivity in tough economic times. That could mean recessions will be harder on millions of American workers, but also that the jobs outlook in the current recovery is better than it seems, according to a new paper.
White Gold
My and Russ’s colleague Larry White – who knows as much about the history and theory of money and banking as anyone alive – would like to see a debate over the gold standard that features at least one strong proponent of that means of mooring money.
A Failing Agenda Fails
President Barack Obama returned from Asia yesterday, and the headlines greeting him home are not kind. “Obama’s economic view is rejected on world stage,” reads The New York Times; “Obama, weakened after midterms, reveals limited leverage in failed S. Korea deal,” says The Washington Post; and ABC News declares, “President Obama Falls Short on G-20 Goals: Failure to Deliver on Key Trade Goals Reveals Limits of American Influence.” These headlines are only half-right: Yes, President Obama did fail to deliver on his agenda in Asia, but the culprit is not declining American influence. The problem is a losing agenda set by the President himself.
Robert Frank on Inequality
The latest EconTalk is Robert Frank talking about inequality.
Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 898 Institutions
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 12, 2010.
Schedule for Week of November 14th
Two key housing reports will be released this week: October housing starts (Wednesday) and November homebuilder confidence (Tuesday). Also October retail sales will be released on Monday, and the Fed will release the October industrial production and capacity utilization report (Tuesday).
Half the world’s population lives in 6 countries
A new series looking at Fun Facts! about US and World economies. I am starting with something simple: In 2009, 50% of the world’s 6.8 billion people lived in just 6 countries: China, India, United States, Indonesia, Brazil and Pakistan.
Crushing Entrepreneurs
Clueless regulators continue to pass new rules, despite the damage done by mindless enforcement of the old ones.

Reports
FRIDAY
A Short United Nations To-Do List for the New Congress
As stewards of U.S. taxpayer dollars, Members of Congress should be vigilant in scrutinizing the U.N. budget to guard against impropriety and waste and insist that U.S. interests are being advanced through U.S. contributions to the U.N. system.

THURSDAY
Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households
We find that the effects of the recession are widespread: between November 2008 and April 2010 about 39 percent of households had either been unemployed, had negative equity in their house or had been in arrears in their house payments. Reductions in spending were common especially following unemployment. On average expectations about stock market prices and housing prices are pessimistic, particularly long-run expectations.
Unemployment Insurance Benefits and Family Income of the Unemployed
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) examined the role of UI benefits in supporting the income of families in which at least one person was unemployed at some point in 2009. The analysis addressed how that role varied with the amount of family income and the number of weeks of unemployment for all family members. CBO also examined how the poverty rate and related indicators of financial hardship would have differed in the absence of the UI program.
A New Role for the FDA in Food Safety
If the FDA is to survive and stay effective, it must move to reinvent itself as a modern organization, perhaps a new kind of bureaucracy. It must go back to its original focus on science and integrate itself into new market organizations and food safety challenges in a much more innovative way.

WEDNESDAY
Pell Grant Increase Would Not Solve the College Cost Problem
During the 2010–2011 school year, 8.3 million college students received an average of $3,865 in Pell grant funding at a cost of more than $32 billion, the maximum award being $4,860. The Obama Administration and some Members of Congress argue that another $5.7 billion is needed in order to avoid a funding shortfall and a reduction in the maximum grant award of 15 percent.
Congressional Oversight Panel Examines "Robo-Signed" Foreclosures and Other Mortgage Irregularities
The Congressional Oversight Panel today released its November oversight report, "Examining the Consequences of Mortgage Irregularities for Financial Stability and Foreclosure Mitigation." The Panel reviewed allegations that companies servicing $6.4 trillion in American mortgages may in some cases have bypassed legally required steps to foreclose on a home. The implications of these irregularities remain unclear, but it is possible that "robo-signing" may have concealed deeper problems in the mortgage market that could potentially threaten financial stability and undermine foreclosure prevention efforts.

TUESDAY
The U.S. Generalized System of Preferences: Helping the Poor, But at What Price?
The preferential market access given by the United States to most developing countries through the Generalized System of Preferences yields real benefits for the covered countries and for U.S. consumers and firms importing the goods. Americans save hundreds of millions of dollars a year from duty-free imports, and many poor people abroad have benefited from preferential access to a rich market. Against these benefits, Congress must consider the significant costs of unilateral preference programs — to the preference recipients themselves, to excluded developing countries, and to the world trading system in general — when the program expires at the end of this year.
October Retail Sales Jumped on Strength in Auto Sales
Retail sales increased 1.2 percent in October, buoyed by a 5.0 percent surge in auto sales. While core spending was more modest, today’s report is another positive sign hinting at a strong holiday shopping season.

MONDAY
Economic Group
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary

Budget News Nov. 8-12

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News
FRIDAY
IMF Shadow Looms as Irish Sacrifice to Avoid Bailout
Unlike neighboring Britain in the 1970s, Ireland has never turned to the IMF for aid and the government is determined to avoid being propped up like Greece.
Scottish Parliament Faces Budget Crisis
While EU monetary commissioner Oli Rehn has been in Dublin trying to force through the Republic’s budget, across the water in Scotland a budgetary crisis looms large.
State budget hole deepens
Maryland lawmakers will face a $1.6 billion budget hole when they return to Annapolis in January, state fiscal analysts are reporting today, a deficit larger than what they had anticipated earlier this fall.
Greek Jan-Oct Budget Deficit Down 30% But Lags Targets
This result also significantly lags the International Monetary Fund and European Union EUR110 billion bailout agreement that requires a 36.9% reduction of the 2010 budget deficit on an annual basis.
Budget Deficit in U.S. Narrowed to $140.4 Billion in October
The deficit totaled $140.4 billion last month compared with $176.4 billion in October 2009, according to the Treasury Department’s budget statement released in Washington.
Facing Austerity, Britain Unveils Welfare Cuts
The measures include tough and politically contentious penalties aimed at what government ministers have described as the “work-shy” and “scroungers” among Britain’s five million long-term unemployed.

WEDNESDAY
Balance Budget Amendment to be pushed in new Congress
When Utah Senator-elect Mike Lee arrives in Washington, he will push for a balanced budget amendment in the Senate, while simultaneously, a group called Balanced Budget Amendment Now will pressure Congress through a grassroots campaign that encourages voters to write to their senators and ask them to support the amendment.
Federal workers vie to save the most money
No matter how savvy the ideas, they represent mere drops in a rather large bucket. Cutting the deficit is no easy task for a nation that racked up a $1.29 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2010.
Senate GOP to Vote Next Week on Earmarks, Balanced Budget
At the top of the pile of conference resolutions — none of which would be binding on Members — is an across-the-board earmark ban backed by Sen. Jim DeMint.
Fiscal Commission at Impasse over Debt Reduction
Although some deficit hawks believe the midterm elections were a defining moment for the country in facing the mounting federal debt, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad thinks Obama’s fiscal commission may not be able to pull the trigger.
UK: New dark age on our streets: Up to 75% of councils are dimming the lights to save money
Councils take step in order to slash costs in face of 26% funding cut.
Panels Tackling Deficit, but Doubts Remain that Consensus Can Be Forged
The cavalcade of recommendations is set to continue Wednesday, when the joint Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform plans to release its report, "Getting Back in the Black," a project helmed by former congressmen Bill Frenzel (R-Minn.), Tim Penny (D-Minn.) and Charles Stenholm (D-Tex.).
White House: Rail funds are for rail. Period.
...Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood is threatening to take back stimulus funds from states if they do not follow through on proposed rail projects.

TUESDAY
Virginia operating budget grows 59 percent over past decade
Driven by spending on services like health care, education and social services, Virginia's total operating budget increased 59 percent between 2001 and 2010, a report released Monday shows.
Anti-Smoking Programs Are Slashed
As Budget Constraints Prompt States to Trim Cessation Efforts, Rate of Adult Smokers Stops Declining

MONDAY
GOP to Use Debt Cap to Push Spending Cuts
The U.S. currently has $13.7 trillion of debt outstanding, just shy of the $14.3 trillion limit Congress set in February. Barring big changes in federal spending, taxes or the economy, the government is expected to hit the ceiling by May, and administration officials have already said it will have to be raised by then.
Irish Debt Woes Revive Concern About Europe
An Irish bond market already in free fall plunged further after Ireland announced on Thursday that it planned to nearly double its package of spending cuts and tax increases to try to rein in its huge deficit.
$14,300,000,000,000: Debt Limit Showdown Looming
...Rep. John Boehner, the likely new Speaker of the House, told ABC's Diane Sawyer on Thursday that there are "multiple options" for how to deal with the debt limit, noting that Congress will make sure the country is "ready to meet our obligations."
Now in Power, G.O.P. Vows Cuts in State Budgets
States face huge deficits, even after several grueling years of them, and just as billions of dollars in stimulus money from Washington is drying up.

Economist Comments
FRIDAY
On Fixing Social Security, and the Budget
So the commission has proposed a little bit from Column A, a little bit from Column B--a lengthy phased in hike in the retirement age; a refocus of benefits on the bottom 50% of the lifetime earnings distribution; and, of course, more taxes, so that Social Security levies will ultimately cover about 90% of taxable payrolls. Perhaps this isn't the best way it could be done--but I think it's better than trying to divine an answer from the polls.
Deficit Reduction Plan Draws Scorn From Left and Right
By putting deep spending cuts and substantial tax increases on the table, President Obama’s bipartisan debt-reduction commission has exposed fissures in both parties, underscoring the volatile nature and long odds of any attempt to address the nation’s long-term budget problems.
EDITORIAL: T&A at the TSA
Bureaucratic, one-size-fits-all approaches to security invite disaster. The $2.4 billion in taxpayer funds the agency plans to waste on whole-body scanners will do nothing to make America more secure. The new Congress needs to take note and rein in this rogue agency.
A Deficit of Nerve
Obama's commission has ideas that Republicans can use.
Beware Commissions Bearing Gifts
Bring federal spending from its present 25% of GDP down to 21%. Nice, but as the Cato Institute's Chris Edwards noted Wednesday, "federal spending was just 18% of GDP in President Clinton's last two years in office."

WEDNESDAY
Debt Limit Impasse Could Drag On For Months
The consensus view seems to be that a debt limit impasse will lead to an acute crisis: at least a government shutdown, possibly a failure to make interest payments on government bonds, and an ensuing spike in bond yields and fall in stock prices.

TUESDAY
Analysis: If Kansas' GOP fiscal conservatives want to cut budget, 2011 is their big chance
The incoming Republican governor has received a pessimistic scenario from legislative researchers, projecting a deficit of $492 million on June 30, 2012, the end of the next fiscal year.
The Republicans Will Have To Cut Some Lemons
Getting rid of small government programs like the Corporation for Public Broadcasting will put a dent in the deficit and earn GOP credibility to take on Medicare and Social Security.
WaPo’s Fiscal Truths
A Washington Post editorial today discusses the National Academy of Sciences “Fiscal Future” study. The NAS report modeled four possible tax and spending paths for the nation over the next 70 years.
RAHN: The real test for the GOP
What is new is the big jump in federal government spending in the past two years, from an average of about one-fifth of GDP to about one-quarter of GDP, and to this must be added another 13 percent for state and local government spending as a percentage of GDP, causing the total government sector to rise from about one-third of GDP to almost 40 percent.

MONDAY
SCHILLER: The anatomy of (stimulus) failure
The $100 billion in tax rebates was spent quickly by consumers. In the process, the negative growth in gross domestic product of the first calendar quarter was reversed in the second quarter. The tax rebates did the job of stimulating short-term growth, and did it quickly. The ideologues advising Mr. Obama ignored this evidence, relying instead on surveys of consumer intentions.
California: The Lindsay Lohan of States
You've racked up nearly $70 billion in general obligation debt, and that doesn't include your $500 billion unfunded pension liability. Your own analysts predict you'll face a hole of at least $80 billion over the next four years.
The Race to Erase Debt
American households are turning away from debt and embracing thrift, says columnist Chris Farrell. Can government do the same?

Blogs
FRIDAY
The Deficit Commission: A Good Try That Falls Short
...ultimately the report falls short because it fails to address the proper role of government. In fact, it tacitly accepts the idea that government should be doing everything it is doing now.
Fiscal Responsibility Commission Draft Report Quick Take
After taking a first brush through the fiscal commission co-chairs’ 50-page report, my initial conclusion is that the authors are headed in the right direction but remain trapped in a philosophical framework that misunderstands the role of government.
Debt Commission Reform Proposals – What Are Their Chances?
To improve the chances that history does not repeat itself, the commission’s proposals need to be combined with proposals to reform the budget process.
Heritage Reacts to Simpson-Bowles Deficit Reduction Panel Proposal
They would hike taxes to 21% of America’s economic output (i.e., gross domestic product or GDP), well over the historical average of 18% of GDP.
Obama’s Fiscal Commission: The Good and Bad
The report proposes to cut $200 billion from discretionary spending by 2015 from Obama’s proposed spending that year of $1,309 billion. That’s a 15 percent cut. However, the word “cut” needs to be qualified because discretionary outlays were $1,041 in the pre-stimulus year of 2007, and they were just $615 billion in the pre-Bush year of 2000.
European Debt Update
There is no immediate liquidity crisis for Ireland (unlike for Greece earlier this year), but clearly bond investors are spooked by the discussions of bond holders having to take haircuts if there is a bailout.
Co-Chairmen of Obama’s Fiscal Commission Unveil Real Tax Increases and Fake Spending Cuts
If you read through their report, it sounds like there are lots of spending cuts. But they never explain that these supposed cuts are really just reductions in previously-planned increases.
So, About That Deficit Commission …
The magnitude of deficit reduction required is far greater than anything we've had to do so far (except in post-war interludes where the solution was to um, not spend so much money shooting at people). There is no magic pot of money out there that does not come attached to some angry interest group.

Reports
FRIDAY
Bowles–Simpson Commission Co-Chair Report: A Good and Welcome First Step
These statistics offer a quick preview of one of the flaws of their plan—a 50/50 approach to eliminating the deficits and lowering the projected trajectory of the debt through tax increases and spending cuts. As revenues are projected to soon return to their historical level—even if the tax cuts are made permanent—spending is clearly the problem.

WEDNESDAY
Take the Austerity Cure: G-20 Should Resist U.S. Efforts to Spread More Debt Around
Austerity-favoring conservatives in the G-20 group—including U.K. Conservative Party Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, U.S. Nobel laureates in economics (such as Edward Prescott, Vernon Smith, and James Buchanan), and the leaders of several European governments—have the better answer: By reducing deficits, nations facing deepening deficits like the U.S. and U.K. can shore up confidence in their futures, encourage private investment, and accelerate their economic recoveries.

TUESDAY
The U.N. Should Pay What Its Owes the U.S. from Its Tax Equalization Fund
The United Nations reported that, as of December 31, 2009, it was holding nearly $180 million owed to the United States from the U.N.’s Tax Equalization Fund (TEF).
The Negative Consequences of Government Expenditure
The U.S. national debt currently stands at 62 percent of GDP—its highest level since WWII. Under plausible assumptions, this ratio will rise to at least 80 percent and possibly 185 percent of GDP by 2035 and continue increasing thereafter.

Employment News Nov. 8-12

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News
FRIDAY
Ex-weapons plant contractor planning 1,400 layoffs
The company that manages a former nuclear weapons complex in South Carolina announced Wednesday that it plans next year to lay off 1,400 contractors, 800 of whom were funded with federal stimulus money.

WEDNESDAY
Glimmers of Hope Among Consumers and Shopkeepers
NFIB survey: small business hiring plans up sharply.
A bright spot in the hiring picture
The number of first-time filers for unemployment benefits fell by 24,000 in the latest week to the lowest level in nearly four months, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.
Job Openings Drop for Second Straight Month
Job openings dropped sharply in September, a sign that hiring is likely to remain weak over the next several months.

TUESDAY
California's unemployment fund has deficit of $10.3 billion
The recession and the Legislature's decision years ago to raise benefits has draiend the state unemployment insurance fund, which now has an estimated $10.3 billion deficit.

MONDAY
1.2 million people want a job but aren't looking
A heartening jobs report last week masked an ominous statistic: Discouraged workers hit a record 1.2 million.
Ask Monster.com, and White House will answer
Wondering how the government is going to save the job market? Just ask Monster.com. The job-hunting website is teaming up with the White House to solicit questions on the topic from the general public.
Close Does Count When It Comes to Jobs, Education
Workers with less than a high school diploma were likelier to keep their jobs during the recession if they lived in a handful of metro areas with the highest concentrations of employees with college degrees, according to a paper released Friday by Alan Berube, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Unemployment Update: Surge, Decline Even Out in Gov't Report
Unemployment at 9.4% and Gallup's Job Creation Index at +10 in October.

Economists Comments
FRIDAY
Creating jobs "for the people" through Open Government
Apps for Californians was a contest to build the best tools to leverage government data for the public good. Besides creating new ways for citizens to understand their world, it also created new job opportunities and blueprint for the nation.
New EPA regs will kill jobs, stall economy
Without the proper pollution permits, existing facilities and new construction projects across the country either will grind to a halt or never get started. The cost estimates are indeed staggering, according to an econometric study by the Manufacturers Alliance that projects more than 7.3 million lost jobs by 2020.
The 77% of Income Fallacy
When Congress returns next week for a "lame-duck," post-election session, Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid (D-Nev) will try to muster the 60 votes he needs to block a filibuster of a vote on the misnamed Paycheck Fairness Act. It would be better titled the Paycheck Rareness Act, because it would make paychecks rare by driving small firms out of business and sending larger corporations overseas.

MONDAY
Jobs Expand by 151,000, But Unemployment Will Still Be High for Another Decade
This month's rise in jobs was fueled by retail hiring, which isn't sustainable. Expect to see the unemployment rate back up above 10% in this cycle.

Blogs
FRIDAY
Long-Term Unemployed Cut Job Hunt
Most economic models say the amount of time spent job hunting should be steady — or rise — the longer a worker is unemployed, in part because they know they’re nearing the exhaustion of jobless benefits. But the researchers found the opposite: Workers cut the time they spent job hunting by about a third over the initial 12 week period. The economists posit that workers may run out of suitable jobs to apply for — or could simply get more discouraged the longer they are on the hunt.
Why ABC News Owes Rand Paul an Apology
ABC News’ The Note runs with a story claiming that Kentucky Senator-elect Rand Paul is citing bad numbers on federal employee pay. But could it be ABC that has its numbers wrong?
Inability to Cut Rates Fuels Joblessness
The recession was marked by those overextended households cutting spending and saving more in the face of hard times. The problem now is that the normal tool used to revive consumer spending and hiring — cutting interest rates well below the inflation rate — isn’t available because rates are nearly at zero. So unemployment has remained stuck at a high level, currently 9.6%.
Unemployment Benefits: Big Battle Ahead
When Congress returns next week it will have quite a lot on its plate—including whether to extend the emergency unemployment insurance benefits for nearly two million people who will otherwise see their benefits evaporate at the end of November.
Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart: Companies Remain Cautious on Hiring
Few of the businesses surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta expect their sales to improve significantly in the near future—and are putting off or minimizing hiring as a result—said Atlanta Fed President Dennis P. Lockhart.

WEDNESDAY
Serious Workplace Injuries Fell In 2009
Fewer employees and shorter hours meant fewer serious workplace injuries last year.
Obama’s De Facto Oil Ban Still Killing Jobs
As Thomas Clements, co-owner of a Louisiana offshore drilling support business, explains in today’s Human Events the de facto drilling moratorium is killing jobs in the Gulf. Here is why...
Hires Rise, Still Five Unemployed Workers Per Job Opening
There were five unemployed workers per every available job in September, the Labor Department said Tuesday, a sign that even with October’s job growth the economy still has a lot of ground to make up.

TUESDAY
How Weak Was Friday’s Jobs Report?
It is true: the establishment survey of U.S. businesses did report that 151,000 jobs were created last month. But The Heritage Foundation points out that there was also some troubling news in Friday’s report
BLS: Job Openings decrease slightly in September, Low Labor Turnover
Although job openings declined slightly in September, it appears job openings are still trending up. However overall labor turnover is still low.

MONDAY
Disappointing Jobs Report: Unemployment Remains at 9.6 Percent
As we’ve come to expect, yet another lackluster jobs report has been released.
Employment: Participation Rate
The following graph shows the employment population ratio, the participation rate, and the unemployment rate.
Older Worker's Jobs Shellacked in October
The unemployment situation worsened in October compared to that of September.
NFIB: Small Business hiring "improves slightly"
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release their small business confidence survey on Tuesday. They pre-released the employment results: Job Creation Plans on Main Street Improve Slightly
Unemployment: Some “Good” News
Here is a good summary of today’s employment news:
Milton Friedman and the Phillips Curve
The Phillips Curve has not died, I encountered it just the other day.
Economists React: ‘Step in the Right Direction’ on Jobs
Economists and others weigh in on the increase in jobs and steady unemployment rate.

Reports
MONDAY
Heritage Employment Report: A Mixed Bag of Tricks and Treats
Friday's Employment Situation Report by the U.S. Department of Labor actually consisted of two employment reports, and they paint two different pictures of the U.S. labor market

Monetary News Nov. 8-12

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News
FRIDAY
Obama’s economic view is rejected on world stage
Free trade deal with South Korea eludes president.
G-20 refuses to back US push on China's currency
Leaders of 20 major economies on Friday refused to back a U.S. push to make China boost its currency's value, keeping alive a dispute that raises fears of a global trade war amid criticism that cheap Chinese exports are costing American jobs.
Why there's gold fever
There is at present a profound uncertainty about currencies. That is why the president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, created such a stir with a brief reference to an enhanced role for gold in the course of a plea for a more sustainable international exchange rate system.
Bernanke's worst nightmare: Ron Paul
Ben Bernanke has had his hands full since his first day on the job as Federal Reserve. Chairman nearly five years ago. It's about to get even tougher.His harshest critic on Capitol Hill, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, is about to become one of his overseers.
G-20: We'll avoid currency war
Completing a two-day summit in South Korea, the G-20 nations released their so-called Seoul Action Plan, a communiqué that outlines a wide range of macroeconomic policies.
Why Fed bond-buying plan is raising trade tensions
It turns out many foreigners are pretty angry, too. They say the Fed's $600 billion program is a scheme to give U.S. exporters an unfair edge - one that endangers the global economy.
Greenspan vs. Geithner in 'weak dollar' debate
Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner locked horns Thursday over whether the Obama administration is supporting a weak dollar to bolster the economy.

WEDNESDAY
Analysis: German tempers fray as U.S. policy gulf widens
Germany's undiplomatic outbursts against U.S. policy, calling it "clueless" before a G20 summit, show growing estrangement on economics as America's focus shifts away from transatlantic ties to domestic challenges and Asia.
Economic Boost Or Bad Policy? GOP Denounces New Fed Plan
Backlash Building Against Central Bank's New $600 Billion Stimulus Program.
Fed Counts on 'Psychological Bump' With Borrowing, but May Just Add to Debt, Inflation
Investors beware: The Federal Reserve may have just agreed to make $600 billion more available for borrowing, but don't expect to see that money flooding the market any time soon.
China tightens bank holding requirement
China, in response to the Federal Reserve's move to inject billions into the U.S. economy, has raised the reserve requirement ratio on major banks in an attempt to control its flow of new money.
Enough already about dollar debasement
OK, maybe the dollar's not quite almighty any more. But neither is it the 98-pound weakling it's widely made out to be.

TUESDAY
China to Tighten Control on Inflows of Overseas Funds
China will force banks to hold more foreign exchange and strengthen auditing of overseas fund raising, stepping up efforts to curb hot-money inflows that may inflate asset bubbles and add pressure for a stronger yuan.
Key banker is skeptical about Fed plan
Richard Fisher, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, whose district includes Houston, said he could envision this second round of Fed purchases leading to a weaker dollar, "super ordinary inflation," financial speculation and accelerating the transfer of wealth to the rich "from the "poor and the worker and the saver."
Global Fed bashing casts shadow over G-20
Growing criticism of U.S. Federal Reserve policy is fueling global tensions as leaders of the world's largest economies prepare to meet in South Korea Wednesday.
Oil near $90. Thanks a lot, Fed.
Crude is currently trading around $87 a barrel. Prices have not topped $90 in more than two years. But now that the Federal Reserve has made its latest round of quantitative easing official, some fear that crude at $90 is likely in the not-so-distant future.
Fed survey: new standards don't lure small firms
Banks loosened lending stnatdards for small businesses over the past three months but demand for loans remained weak.
Fed Global Backlash Grows
China and Russia Join Germany in Scolding; Obama Defends Move as Pro-Growth.

MONDAY
Fed Governor Doubts Program
Close Bernanke Associate Fears the Risks of Bond-Buying, Wants Regular Review.
Obama returns fire after China slams Fed's move
Obama says U.S. low growth or no growth danger to world.
US Geithner says chances of double-dip recession receding
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Monday that the US economy was starting to pick up and that chances of a "double-dip" recession were lower than at any time in the last 12 months.
Gold Falls From Near Record as the Dollar Gains; Silver Declines
Gold declined in New York, after nearing a record, as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset. Silver fell from a 30- year high.
World Bank chief surprises with gold standard idea
Leading economies should consider adopting a modified global gold standard to guide currency rates, World Bank president Robert Zoellick said on Monday in a surprise proposal before a potentially acrimonious G20 summit.
US confident G20 will back new trade scheme
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Monday he was confident China and other countries would support a global trade rebalancing plan at an upcoming G20 summit.
Bernanke's road to hell
Was Ben Bernanke lying then, or is he lying now?
Friedman Casts Shadow as Economists Meet
The central bank will indirectly be financing the government’s deficits on a scale not seen since World War II. It will buy the equivalent of most of the new Treasury debt issued through next June. The portfolio of federal bonds it amassed as a result of the 2008 crisis will swell further, just about doubling.

Economists Comments
FRIDAY
Good Ship QE2 Has Set Sail, Course Set for Japan Circa 1995
Watching precious metals, gold, the dollar, and especially Treasuries after the Fed's quantitative easing announcement.
Those nice chaps at the IMF
THE euro zone’s third-quarter GDP figures, released this morning, seemed only to highlight the theme being played out in bond markets: “core” economies are doing fine but “peripheral” countries are struggling.
The world against Bernanke and his easy money
The assault against Bernake's easy money has reached such fever that President Obama felt it necessary to defend the $600 billion in new-money printing in a news conference in India.

WEDNESDAY
Will QE2 Trigger War Games?
Global tensions are on the rise.
Is the Fed's Debt-Buying Unconstitutional?
Isn’t the problem fiscal incontinence and regulatory misfeasance, and business uncertainty about all of that, which is creating joblessness? Not a lack of liquidity and not deflation, which is not a clear and present danger, as instead inflation is still with us?
QE2's Days Could Be Numbered
Strategists suggest the Fed may be forced to scale back QE2 sooner than anticipated.
Tea Party Rallying Cry: Abolish the Federal Reserve!
is the Federal Reserve out of control? The Tea Party thinks so. Suspicion of our nation’s central bank is a recurring theme of the populist movement, which blames the Fed for soaring debt, high unemployment, and a sinking dollar. It also accuses the Fed of being the handmaiden of the Obama administration, and way too cozy with Wall Street.
No Soft Patch, No Excuse For Another Round Of Quantitative Easing
It is fiscal--not monetary--policy that has held back the economy and kept unemployment high.

TUESDAY
Bernanke Ignores Basic Laws of Economics
Bernanke proclaimed that lower interest rates wrought by QE will increase stock prices on the way to more consumer wealth and confidence. According to our Fed Chairman, this might boost spending, and "Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion." One can't make this up.
QE2 Appears Factored Into the US Treasury Yield Curve
The second round of quantitative easing appears to be factored into the yield on the 10-Year note between the annual value level at 2.813 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249.
The World Revolts Against Bernanke's QEII
The great Bernanke QE2 debate continues to heat up. In the run-up to the G-20 meetings, China, Russia, Germany, and others are all coming out against the Federal Reserve's quantitative-easing agenda. They don't want hot-money excess dollars to flow into their higher-yielding currencies.
Easing puts off real economic revamping
Quantitative easing (QE) should cease immediately on both sides of the Atlantic. In the short term it might cause a stockmarket crash, or even a double dip recession, but in the long term it could be the necessary step if the economic challenges facing the developed world are to be tackled.
Inflation Targeting Won't Fix the Fed
Successful inflation targeting by Ben Bernanke or his successors will do no more than paper over a debt-driven system that is beyond repair.
Ben Bernanke's Impossible Dream
In other words, Mr. Bernanke and his FOMC allies are risking higher interest rates and inflated commodity costs in the pursuit of the contradictory objectives of higher inflation and lower bond yields, seemingly oblivious to all the evidence that they are pursuing an impossible dream.
Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble...
Given that interest rates are already quite depressed, Bernanke seems to be grasping at straws in justifying QE2 on the basis further slight reductions in yields.
'The US Has Lived on Borrowed Money for Too Long'
In an interview with SPIEGEL, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, 68, criticizes US calls for Germany to reduce exports, outlines his plans for an insolvency framework for indebted European nations and the emphasizes the significance of the German-French axis for Europe.

MONDAY
Sarah Palin knocks Fed move
Our government is pumping money into the banking system by buying up Treasury bonds,” Palin will say in the speech. “And where, you may ask, are we getting the money to pay for all this? We’re printing it out of thin air.”
Reviving '70s stagflation
As President Obama restores the Jimmy Carter-era solar panels to the executive mansion, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is bringing back Mr. Carter's monetary policy, running the printing presses faster than they've run since lava lamps and disco were in style.
QE2 Hurts Main Street at Gas Pump; More Banks Close on Bank Failure Friday
Crude oil traded above its May 3 high with the price at the gasoline pump up about a dime since Wednesday's QE2 announcement.
QE2 Questioned From Within and Without
Get ready for a showdown at the "Is It OK?" Corral.
QE2, Midterm Elections Produce Better Than Expected Economic Reports
QE2 will likely be effective at lowering real interest rates, and the Republican victory will continue pushing Obama more toward "center."
America will survive the errors of Ben Bernanke's trigger-happy Federal Reserve
America is a resilient nation, with far healthier demographics than China, Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy or Russia. The storm will blow over.

Blogs
FRIDAY
Fed Insiders Doubt QE2
The pitfalls of central bank communication.
Will QE2 Actually Cause Interest Rates, Dollar to Rise?
We're told QE2 will create a wealth effect that will drive demand for borrowing and expansion. However, interest rates are currently rising.
QE2 Will Either Fix the Economy or Destroy It
There is no middle ground on this one and a lot of doubt surrounding the decision.
Bernanke's Experiment: Monetary Curiosities and Actualities
Basically, the Fed is firing up the digital printing presses to stimulate the economy by making it cheaper to borrow money. There has been a lot of debate over whether this will work. But perhaps a deep question is whether this is an appropriate role for monetary policy.
QEII follow-up: why do people hate the idea?
I believe the price of gold is high because of "financial-existential risk," not because of inflation per se.  The U.S. dollar and debt are no longer unambiguously safe and is there any real solution to the triple menace of highly leveraged banks, moral hazard, and financial strategies of extreme negative skewness?  It remains to be seen.
Hot Money, Gold, Foreign Exchange And The Fallout From QE
What do “hot money,” gold, sovereign debt, foreign trade, and Germany and China all have in common? Everything. They are all lined up against the U.S. and our new quantitative easing (QE2). There is fallout related to quantitative easing, and the markets are reacting, from the Fed’s perspective, badly.
Geniuses At Work
Inflation is the result of too much money chasing too few goods.  So by increasing the flow of goods (and services) produced in an economy, rapid growth decreases the risk of domestic inflation. That the finance ministers of three major world governments do not understand this fundamental fact is appalling.
Fed and Trade, Fed Critics, Fiscal Adjustment
A roundup of economic news from around the Web.
Speaking of the Fed...
I think this history is well worth reviewing. Just as most people casually assume that Roosevelt did a heckuva job during the Great Depression, most people casually assume that the Fed has done a heckuva job with its responsibilities.


WEDNESDAY
China's Sure Bet
As the dollar wobbles, China is pulling back from U.S. Treasury securities and buying up hard assets around the world.
What Quantitative Easing Means for the World
Capital controls and a fixed exchange rate distort local capital markets in ways that can lead to malinvestment or underinvestment; done badly they harm global trade flows; and they are often a source of rent-seeking for local elites. For this last reason, they are also pretty popular.
Don't flip out over QEII (repeating myself)
I'm not sure it will work, because it won't fix the housing market, may not restore the demands for wealth-elastic goods in a sustainable manner, may not restore the normal flow of credit to small businesses, may not lower subjective estimated risk premia, and may not fix the general disconnect between expectations and reality.
Notes on Bernanke’s Apologia for QE2
A strong argument can be made that, instead, the Fed’s actions created immense uncertainty and confusion about which commercial banks, investment banks, and other big firms would be bailed out and, if they were to be bailed out, how they would be bailed out.
Nobel Winner Gets Another Shot at Fed
Will a Nobel Prize put Peter Diamond over the finish line?  The Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist, rebuffed by Senate Republicans in September for a slot as a Federal Reserve governor, will get another shot soon.

TUESDAY
What Could Go Wrong With QE2
If it works, it is a much prettier picture for the economy. But if it doesn't work, there are some severe unintended consequences we may have to deal with—not the least of which is out of control inflation. Here are a few reasons QE2 might not work:
Fed’s Warsh Skeptical Bond Purchases Can Boost Economy
A top Federal Reserve official raised doubts about the central bank’s ability to boost the U.S. economy by buying more government debt, just days after the Fed took the step.
Just how absurd is central planning?
A warning to activist central planners: first step, quantitative easing, second step, communism.
Should Economists Just Stick to Core Inflation?
Making a point about why most economists look at core measures when gauging inflation, Paul Krugman runs a chart on his blog of the year-over-year change in the consumer price index with and without food and energy.
Gold Looking Bubblicious
It's not that quantitative easing may not cause inflation--it might.  In fact, that's sort of the point; the Fed wants a little more inflation in the money supply, in order to ease the unemployment rate.  But consider how much inflation there would have to be for this gold price to make sense.

MONDAY
Monetary Policy Is Looming Issue in 2012 Presidential Campaign
By implementing any level of austerity, Republicans can take advantage of the public's outrage at debt, deficits, and the Fed.
Digging oneself into a hole?
There are few universal truths in economics. One is if you put some of the best economists in a room together, you’re guaranteed to get wildly different opinions.
A QE2 Ditty
It's Called Quantitative Easing.

Reports
WEDNESDAY
The Hayek Rule
It is necessary for the economy to cleanse itself of bad investments after a bubble bursts and readjust itself through a reallocation of misplaced resources. As a result, some of the Fed’s policy responses to the crisis have prolonged this painful process, dragging out the economic woes of the country.