News
WSJ | Deadline Looms for Long-Term Unemployed
More than 40% of the nearly five million Americans who receive unemployment insurance are set to lose those benefits if federal programs expire as scheduled at year-end.
Blogs
WSJ | How Long Can You Collect Unemployment Benefits?
When job losses skyrocketed in 2008, Congress passed emergency measures to supplement state-level unemployment insurance programs, which generally offer six months of benefits. At their peak, the federally backed programs extended benefits to up to 99 weeks in some — though never all — states.
Monday, November 26, 2012
Budget
News
CNN Money | Fiscal cliff tax deal: Getting to $1 trillion
Leaders in Washington say they want to make a "down payment" on deficit reduction and avert the fiscal cliff.
NY Times | States Want to Have Say During Talks Over Budget
Their states are still recovering from the recession, and now the nation’s governors are bracing, again, for cuts in federal aid.
Washington Times | EU summit ends without budget deal
A summit of the European Union’s 27 national leaders, charged with agreeing on a long-term budget for the bloc, broke up Friday afternoon without being able to reach a deal.
CNN Money | 8 things that could kill a fiscal cliff deal
I'm not ruling out a deal before Christmas, particularly one that combines a very modest "down payment" with procedures to deliver tax and entitlement reform. I've always said I see about a 40% chance of such a deal by December 24. The problem for the market will be to gauge how much deficit reduction will ultimately be delivered. I expect to be underwhelmed.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Real Clear Markets | The Fiscal Cliff? Let's Rush Off Of It
Washington, the media, and many economists are consumed by the looming fiscal cliff-a combination of tax increases and spending cuts that are set to occur on January 1. Many economists, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke among them, predict that if we go over the fiscal cliff the country will go into recession. I say let's do it.
WSJ | Les Moody Blues
Moody's stripped France of its triple-A rating last week, citing "deteriorating economic prospects," the "long-standing rigidities of its labor, goods and services markets" and "exposure to peripheral Europe." And it could get worse
NY Times | Slugging It Out, Inside Obama’s Mind
Throughout Washington, policy makers are debating how to avoid hitting a wall on Jan. 1, when large and abrupt tax increases and spending cuts will take effect automatically unless Congress acts. The debate is perhaps no more fervent than it is inside the head of our newly re-elected president, who must now decide what kind of policy leader he will become, both in this confrontation and throughout his second term.
Washington Times | After fiscal cliff comes fiscal avalanche
While Washington is preoccupied with the so-called fiscal cliff, little attention has been given to the fiscal avalanche that will occur if we continue down an unsustainable, long-term path, causing markets to turn sour on U.S. debt and leading to a spike in interest rates.
WSJ | None Dare Call It Default
To call Greece First World may be a stretch, but Greece has defaulted once already, and it is only a matter of time until Greece defaults again. Welcome to default-o-rama, the next chapter in the First World's struggle for fiscal sustainability.
Forbes | Avoiding The Fiscal Cliff By Fixing The Fiscal Hole
The President and Congress may throw America into another recession, thanks to the Balanced Budget Act, which was crafted so as to punish the entire country with brutal spending cuts and tax increases if politicians couldn’t agree amongst themselves on a kinder, gentler plan to tame the deficit.
AEI | Greece's only option is default
This week's gridlock over Greece's next round of bailout funds underscores an unsettling reality that Europeans would do well to realize sooner rather than later: For Greece, default is the only option.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Avoiding a Debt Crisis, Eh? Lessons From Canada
Congressional lawmakers met last week to try to hammer out a deal to avert the fiscal cliff. Democrats insist on revenue increases as part of such a deal, saying new revenue is the only way to significantly reduce the national debt. However, it is not a lack of revenue that is driving U.S. debt; it is unrestrained federal spending. American lawmakers looking to solve America’s looming fiscal crisis need not look further than Canada.
CNN Money | Fiscal cliff tax deal: Getting to $1 trillion
Leaders in Washington say they want to make a "down payment" on deficit reduction and avert the fiscal cliff.
NY Times | States Want to Have Say During Talks Over Budget
Their states are still recovering from the recession, and now the nation’s governors are bracing, again, for cuts in federal aid.
Washington Times | EU summit ends without budget deal
A summit of the European Union’s 27 national leaders, charged with agreeing on a long-term budget for the bloc, broke up Friday afternoon without being able to reach a deal.
CNN Money | 8 things that could kill a fiscal cliff deal
I'm not ruling out a deal before Christmas, particularly one that combines a very modest "down payment" with procedures to deliver tax and entitlement reform. I've always said I see about a 40% chance of such a deal by December 24. The problem for the market will be to gauge how much deficit reduction will ultimately be delivered. I expect to be underwhelmed.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Real Clear Markets | The Fiscal Cliff? Let's Rush Off Of It
Washington, the media, and many economists are consumed by the looming fiscal cliff-a combination of tax increases and spending cuts that are set to occur on January 1. Many economists, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke among them, predict that if we go over the fiscal cliff the country will go into recession. I say let's do it.
WSJ | Les Moody Blues
Moody's stripped France of its triple-A rating last week, citing "deteriorating economic prospects," the "long-standing rigidities of its labor, goods and services markets" and "exposure to peripheral Europe." And it could get worse
NY Times | Slugging It Out, Inside Obama’s Mind
Throughout Washington, policy makers are debating how to avoid hitting a wall on Jan. 1, when large and abrupt tax increases and spending cuts will take effect automatically unless Congress acts. The debate is perhaps no more fervent than it is inside the head of our newly re-elected president, who must now decide what kind of policy leader he will become, both in this confrontation and throughout his second term.
Washington Times | After fiscal cliff comes fiscal avalanche
While Washington is preoccupied with the so-called fiscal cliff, little attention has been given to the fiscal avalanche that will occur if we continue down an unsustainable, long-term path, causing markets to turn sour on U.S. debt and leading to a spike in interest rates.
WSJ | None Dare Call It Default
To call Greece First World may be a stretch, but Greece has defaulted once already, and it is only a matter of time until Greece defaults again. Welcome to default-o-rama, the next chapter in the First World's struggle for fiscal sustainability.
Forbes | Avoiding The Fiscal Cliff By Fixing The Fiscal Hole
The President and Congress may throw America into another recession, thanks to the Balanced Budget Act, which was crafted so as to punish the entire country with brutal spending cuts and tax increases if politicians couldn’t agree amongst themselves on a kinder, gentler plan to tame the deficit.
AEI | Greece's only option is default
This week's gridlock over Greece's next round of bailout funds underscores an unsettling reality that Europeans would do well to realize sooner rather than later: For Greece, default is the only option.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Avoiding a Debt Crisis, Eh? Lessons From Canada
Congressional lawmakers met last week to try to hammer out a deal to avert the fiscal cliff. Democrats insist on revenue increases as part of such a deal, saying new revenue is the only way to significantly reduce the national debt. However, it is not a lack of revenue that is driving U.S. debt; it is unrestrained federal spending. American lawmakers looking to solve America’s looming fiscal crisis need not look further than Canada.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
General Economics
News
Bloomberg | Most Americans in Decade Project Economy Will Get Better
More Americans this month said the world’s largest economy will improve than at any time in the past decade, led by a surge among Democrats following the re- election of President Barack Obama.
Market Watch | Leading economic index rises 0.2% in October
It's likely that the U.S. economy will continue to "modestly" expand through early 2013, the Conference Board said Wednesday as it reported that its leading economic index rose 0.2% in October after increasing a downwardly revised 0.5% in September.
Bloomberg | Japan’s Exports Reach Three-Year Low as Recession Looms: Economy
Japan is suffering its worst year for exports since the global contraction in 2009 as Europe’s crisis, China’s slowdown and a diplomatic dispute with the Chinese hurt manufacturers and deepen the risk of a recession.
Bloomberg | U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Rises Less Than Forecast
Confidence among U.S. consumers rose less than anticipated in November, indicating the impending fiscal tightening may be starting to damp Americans’ moods.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | Government keeps meddling in the housing market
Friday’s grim financial report from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) — it’s insolvent to the tune of negative $31 billion — is prompting fresh scrutiny of the government’s role in housing, particularly the mayhem caused by federal backing of mortgages involving low down payments and low credit scores.
Fortune | Where to invest with the U.S. on top in oil
The U.S. is expected to become the world's top oil producer by the end of the decade, and investment opportunities abound.
Politico | Want American exceptionalism? Fix Immigration
Carlos Gutierrez, on CNN’s “State of the Union” last weekend, had this to say: “If we get this right, the 21st Century is ours. If we get it wrong, shame on us.”
Forbes | Obama: The Worst Keynesian Ever
The president is bent on raising taxes big time, if not on January 1, when all sorts of rates are scheduled to go up, then shortly thereafter as the new, more Democratic Congress convenes to do its damage.
Bloomberg | Most Americans in Decade Project Economy Will Get Better
More Americans this month said the world’s largest economy will improve than at any time in the past decade, led by a surge among Democrats following the re- election of President Barack Obama.
Market Watch | Leading economic index rises 0.2% in October
It's likely that the U.S. economy will continue to "modestly" expand through early 2013, the Conference Board said Wednesday as it reported that its leading economic index rose 0.2% in October after increasing a downwardly revised 0.5% in September.
Bloomberg | Japan’s Exports Reach Three-Year Low as Recession Looms: Economy
Japan is suffering its worst year for exports since the global contraction in 2009 as Europe’s crisis, China’s slowdown and a diplomatic dispute with the Chinese hurt manufacturers and deepen the risk of a recession.
Bloomberg | U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Rises Less Than Forecast
Confidence among U.S. consumers rose less than anticipated in November, indicating the impending fiscal tightening may be starting to damp Americans’ moods.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | Government keeps meddling in the housing market
Friday’s grim financial report from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) — it’s insolvent to the tune of negative $31 billion — is prompting fresh scrutiny of the government’s role in housing, particularly the mayhem caused by federal backing of mortgages involving low down payments and low credit scores.
Fortune | Where to invest with the U.S. on top in oil
The U.S. is expected to become the world's top oil producer by the end of the decade, and investment opportunities abound.
Politico | Want American exceptionalism? Fix Immigration
Carlos Gutierrez, on CNN’s “State of the Union” last weekend, had this to say: “If we get this right, the 21st Century is ours. If we get it wrong, shame on us.”
Forbes | Obama: The Worst Keynesian Ever
The president is bent on raising taxes big time, if not on January 1, when all sorts of rates are scheduled to go up, then shortly thereafter as the new, more Democratic Congress convenes to do its damage.
Health Care
News
Washington Times | Health law directives strengthen coverage for drugs
The Obama administration has strengthened the prescription drug coverage that will be available to the millions of people who will get insurance through the nation’s new health care overhaul starting late next year.
National Journal | New Health Regs Bring Clarity for Insurers
It was a clarifying, if not entirely cheerful, day for the insurance industry on Tuesday, as the Obama administration released long-awaited regulations about how insurance products must be designed and sold under the health reform law in 2014.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Medicaid Is Failing the People It Is Intended to Help
Heritage’s Kevin Dayaratna finds in a recent survey of academic literature that “Medicaid’s so-called safety net cripples the very people it is designed to help.”
Washington Times | Health law directives strengthen coverage for drugs
The Obama administration has strengthened the prescription drug coverage that will be available to the millions of people who will get insurance through the nation’s new health care overhaul starting late next year.
National Journal | New Health Regs Bring Clarity for Insurers
It was a clarifying, if not entirely cheerful, day for the insurance industry on Tuesday, as the Obama administration released long-awaited regulations about how insurance products must be designed and sold under the health reform law in 2014.
Blogs
Heritage Foundation | Medicaid Is Failing the People It Is Intended to Help
Heritage’s Kevin Dayaratna finds in a recent survey of academic literature that “Medicaid’s so-called safety net cripples the very people it is designed to help.”
Monetary
News
Real Clear Markets | Upon Reflection, Second Thoughts On QE3
The costs to the real economy of economic policy uncertainty have recently been studied and quantified in a widely cited paper by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis. Baker et al. focus primarily on economic uncertainty engendered by fiscal and regulatory measures. Little, if any, attention is paid to the possibility of the negative effects of elevated uncertainty about monetary policy.
Blogs
Economist | Battle of the BOJ
It is rare in Japan for politicians to say anything meaningful enough to move markets. But in the space of a few days, Shinzo Abe, who is leading in opinion polls to become Japan’s next prime minister, has spoken so provocatively about monetary policy that it has sent the stockmarket, currency and bond markets into spasms of hope and fear.
WSJ | Bernanke: Cutting Interest Rate on Reserves to Zero Would Provide Little Stimulus
Cutting to zero the interest rate the Federal Reserve pays banks to park excess reserves on its books wouldn’t add much stimulus to the economy, Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.
Real Clear Markets | Upon Reflection, Second Thoughts On QE3
The costs to the real economy of economic policy uncertainty have recently been studied and quantified in a widely cited paper by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis. Baker et al. focus primarily on economic uncertainty engendered by fiscal and regulatory measures. Little, if any, attention is paid to the possibility of the negative effects of elevated uncertainty about monetary policy.
Blogs
Economist | Battle of the BOJ
It is rare in Japan for politicians to say anything meaningful enough to move markets. But in the space of a few days, Shinzo Abe, who is leading in opinion polls to become Japan’s next prime minister, has spoken so provocatively about monetary policy that it has sent the stockmarket, currency and bond markets into spasms of hope and fear.
WSJ | Bernanke: Cutting Interest Rate on Reserves to Zero Would Provide Little Stimulus
Cutting to zero the interest rate the Federal Reserve pays banks to park excess reserves on its books wouldn’t add much stimulus to the economy, Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.
Taxes
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | Tax moves to make now — fiscal cliff or not
To do year-end tax planning right, you should take a two-year perspective. You don’t want to make a move that lowers your 2012 tax bill but raises your 2013 tax bill by more. Right now, taking a two-year perspective is difficult, because we don’t yet know what the 2013 federal income tax landscape will look like.
Weekly Standard | Gorging the Beast
A dedicated libertarian, William Niskanen was also a dedicated pot-stirrer. For him the two vocations—pressing the case for small government and, at least intellectually, making trouble—were inseparable.
Investors | Are Budget Cuts Or Tax Hikes Better For The Economy?
Should debt-ridden and economically struggling Western governments be doing everything possible to reduce their deficits?
Market Watch | Tax moves to make now — fiscal cliff or not
To do year-end tax planning right, you should take a two-year perspective. You don’t want to make a move that lowers your 2012 tax bill but raises your 2013 tax bill by more. Right now, taking a two-year perspective is difficult, because we don’t yet know what the 2013 federal income tax landscape will look like.
Weekly Standard | Gorging the Beast
A dedicated libertarian, William Niskanen was also a dedicated pot-stirrer. For him the two vocations—pressing the case for small government and, at least intellectually, making trouble—were inseparable.
Investors | Are Budget Cuts Or Tax Hikes Better For The Economy?
Should debt-ridden and economically struggling Western governments be doing everything possible to reduce their deficits?
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