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Friday, January 23, 2015

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Existing-home sales saw first drop since 2010 last year
Data released Friday showed that existing home sales dipped in 2014, the first decline since 2010, despite low mortgage rates and other factors that should have helped the market.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Market Watch | Europe moves further apart after central bank’s decision
Thursday was a momentous day for the European Central Bank.
Bloomber View | Cheap Gas Won't Stick Around
Raise that thermostat and fire up the SUV: West Texas Intermediate crude is hovering around $45 a barrel, and the Costco near my house is currently vending gasoline for under $2 a gallon. But don't start pricing Hummers just yet, because we don't know how long this will last.
Wall Street Journal | As Gasoline Heads Toward $2, the Benefits Start to Trickle Down
Gas prices appear headed below a nationwide average of $2 a gallon in coming days, one of the swiftest declines on record and one that is beginning to ripple through the U.S. economy in ways both familiar and unpredictable.
Wall Street Journal | Lawrence Summers Says U.S. Faces Challenges in Restoring Growth
The U.S. economy still faces serious challenges in restoring robust long-term growth despite the recent pickup in economic activity, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Wall Street Journal | The End of the Suburbs and Four Other American Migration Myths
Lyman Stone, a migration researcher at George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs and an economist at the Agriculture Department, is writing about the state of American migration.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
Wall Street Journal | Aggressive ECB Stimulus Ushers In New Era for Europe
The European Central Bank ushered in a new era by launching an aggressive bond-buying program Thursday, shifting pressure to Europe’s political leaders to restore prosperity in one of the global economy’s biggest trouble spots.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Markets | Zero Rates Signal Total Economic Disarray, Not 'Stimulus'
In November 2011, "inflation" in the EU was measured at 3.3%, while it was a touch lower for the defined "Euro area." Thus began both an age of great monetary experimentation and no appreciable effects on the one measure intended to "benefit" the most from it all. The ECB has engaged literally trillions in "stimulus" of almost every form imaginable, from buying covered bonds (instruments where banks own their own liabilities) to traditional interest rate maneuvers to simple and dramatic flooding the zone with LTRO's. And in that time, through all of it, the inflation rate in Europe has moved practically in a straight line lower, unalterable has been its trajectory no matter how much monetary officials claim power and authority.

Employment

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Market Watch | Public-sector workers five times more likely to be part of a union
Public-sector employees are more than five times more likely to be part of a union than their private-sector counterparts, according to the latest data released Friday.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | U.S. jobless claims fall 10,000 to 307,000
The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits in mid-January fell by 10,000 but remained above the key 300,000 mark for the third straight week, the first time that's happened since July. Initial jobless claims declined to 307,000 in the seven days ended Jan. 10 from a revised 317,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday.
Market Watch | U.S. home prices grew 0.8% in November, FHFA says
U.S. house prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index released Thursday.
Wall Street Journal | ECB Announces Stimulus Plan
The European Central Bank said Thursday it will purchase eurozone countries’ government bonds, a landmark decision aimed at combating stagnation and ultralow inflation in a region that has emerged as a top risk to the global economic recovery.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
New York Times | Day After President’s Speech, Some Doubts Linger Over Nation’s Recovery
As a web developer benefiting from an 8 percent pay raise, Brad McLaughlin is looking good economically. He and his girlfriend are spending more money on natural groceries, ski weekends in Colorado’s mountains and vacations to England and Austin, Tex. Not that he credits President Obama for any of it.
Market Watch | The winners from Draghi’s QE? America and Britain
Waiting for Godot seems like just a few minutes by comparison. The markets have been expecting the European Central Bank to launch its own version of quantitative easing since the dinosaurs roamed the earth — or at least since 2011, when it became clear the eurozone was going to need something to lift its struggling economies off the rocks.
Wall Street Journal | Now He’s After Middle-Class Savers
President Obama is pitching his new tax plan as a way to help the middle class at the expense of the rich. But middle-class savers are bound to notice if he achieves two of the White House’s stated goals—to “roll back” tax benefits of 529 college savings plans and “repeal tax incentives going forward” for Coverdell Education Savings Accounts.
Forbes | The President's Middle-Class Economics
In his 2015 State of the Union address, President Obama laid out his vision for how to help the middle-class, dubbing it middle-class economics. His plan includes tax increases of $320 billion to pay for around $200 billion in new or expanded tax credits. Unfortunately, his policy prescriptions would continue years of slow economic growth and flat incomes for the middle-class.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Wall Street Journal | Why Should Americans Care About European Central Bank Policy Moves?
What happens in Frankfurt stays in Frankfurt, nicht? Not exactly, when it comes to the U.S. economy.
Wall Street Journal | How China’s Slowdown Could Drag Down the Global Economy
China’s economic growth is slowing to its lowest pace in more than two decades as it reaches the limits of its credit-fueled, export-led expansion and tries to avoid a hard landing.

Health Care

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Meratus Center | From Fortress to Frontier: How Innovation Can Save Health Care
Despite the fierce debate over health care policy, the political Left and Right are more alike than they realize. Both have spent decades pursuing policies that obstruct health care’s capacity to save lives, ease suffering, and cut costs.
Daily Signal | Medicare Reform Hearings: Making a Bipartisan Case for Common Sense
Medicare doctors face a 21 percent pay cut this year because a complex formula called the Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR), a feature of current law, requires the drastic cut. Repealing that formula to pay physicians would add hundreds of billions of dollars to the nation’s deficits, which is why the House Energy and Commerce Committee is holding two days of hearings on new ways to reform Medicare physician payment while improving Medicare and controlling its costs.

Monetary

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Market Watch | Why the ECB’s QE won’t delay Fed rate increases
Investors are beginning to bet that the Federal Reserve will lose its nerve and postpone the increase in interest rates that the central bank has hinted would come sometime this summer. They’re going to lose that bet because the strong dollar isn’t signaling weakness in the U.S. economy, but strength.
Market Watch | As central banks surprise, Fed may have to throw in the towel
The surprises coming out of the Swiss National Bank, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada spell tectonic shifts occurring in the global economy that inevitably will hit these shores.
Forbes | Lower Inflation: Another Chance For Government Mistakes
World inflation is falling, along with oil prices. This shouldn’t have caught financial markets by surprise, since private-sector credit growth remains very slow.
Wall Street Journal | The World’s Monetary Dead End
Central banks in the U.S., Japan and Europe are trapped in a loop. They are fully invested in the theory that zero rates and bond buying are stimulative and add to inflation, yet growth, inflation and median incomes keep going down.