News
CNN: Money | Turning foreclosures into rentals
Federal officials hope to launch a pilot program in early 2012 to convert government-owned foreclosures into rental properties.
Bloomberg | China Import Growth Misses Estimates as Export Gains Slow; Surplus Widens
China’s import growth fell to a two- year low in December, underscoring a slowdown in the fastest- growing major economy that deepens risks for the global outlook.
Bloomberg | U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise Less-Than-Forecast 0.1% as Sales Gain 0.6%
Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose less than forecast in November as distributors struggled to keep up with demand, a sign gains in manufacturing will keep the economy growing.
Market Watch | Nov. consumer credit jump biggest in decade
U.S. consumers increased their debt in November by the most in a decade, with auto, student and credit-card borrowing all advancing.
Bloomberg | U.S. Economy’s Challenges Greater This Year Than Last, Gluskin Sheff Says
“Certainly, we’re not in a recession right now,” Rosenberg said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu. Nonetheless, he said, “I still believe the economy is still fragile and this recovery is still quite spotty.”
Econ Comments
WSJ | California's High-Speed Rail Fibs
Florida and Ohio have walked away from dubious train projects. Are Golden Staters more gullible?
AEI | 2012: a better year for the US economy
The pace of US economic growth in 2011, especially during the second half of the year, was disappointing, just as growth in Europe and China has been.
Cato Institute | The Income-Inequality Myth
The gap between rich and poor may not be nearly as large as thought, and that inequality may not be growing at all.
Blogs
Mercatus Center | Comparative study of state and local pension plans
The ratio of active employees to retired employees is falling. In 2010 the ratio is 1.87, down from a ratio of 2 in 2008. The number of retirees is growing at a faster rate than the number of active employees.
Independent Institute | Why Your Dog Doesn’t Own Your Entire House, and the Government Doesn’t, Either
The operative word is marginal. Here, as in so many other places where erroneous economic reasoning crops up, the mistake comes from all-or-nothing thinking. In our case, no dog, no house; no fire department, no earnings; no police force, no earnings; and so forth, including, please recall, no work, no earnings.
Calculated Risk | Question #3 for 2012: Will foreclosure activity increase in 2012?
Foreclosure activity is still very high, although activity slowed in 2011 because of "foreclosure gate" issues. The number of REOs also declined in 2011. Will foreclosure activity increase in 2012?
AEI: American | Yes, Obama really is considering a mass refi plan
There are significant obstacles to refinancing in current circumstances. Declines in home equity have been aggravated by tighter standards, high refinancing fees, burdensome administrative processes, and legal risks to the lenders refinancing the loan.
On The Economy | Some Deep Wonkery on Moving Seasonality
There was a 42,000 spike in the number of couriers/messengers last month, and the Bureau pointed out “that seasonal hiring was particularly strong in December. This may reflect increased online purchasing during the holiday season.”
Reports
NBER | When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises
This paper studies the role of leverage in the business cycle. Based on a study of nearly 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document a new stylized fact of the modern business cycle: more credit-intensive booms tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries.
