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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Retail sales in the U.S. cool off in April
Retail spending in the U.S. fizzled out in April after sharp gains in the first three months of the year, the government reported Tuesday.
Bloomberg | Euro-Area Economy Avoids Second Recession on German GDP (Update 2)
Germany helped the euro area avoid its second recession in three years as growth in the region’s largest economy offset contractions in peripheral countries.
Market Watch | Regulators eye stress scenarios for new tests
Bank regulators on Monday released stress test guidance for big banks, asking institutions to conduct an analysis of whether the institutions would survive based on a variety of scenarios such as the failure of a major counterparty or a natural disaster.
USA Today | New online tool helps you estimate Social Security benefits
If you're feeling nostalgic about the days when you drank Pabst Blue Ribbon beer because it was cheap, not trendy, a new online tool from the Social Security Administration will take you on a walk down memory lane.
WSJ | Economists Forecast Subdued Growth in 2012
Forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the economy to grow at such a subdued pace this year that unemployment will barely budge.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | The Union Pension Bomb
Imagine the panic if investors discovered that many of the nation's biggest public companies had hidden liabilities so large as to make them worth a fraction of their value. That's something akin to the shock created by the recent Credit Suisse report on multi-employer pension plans.
City Journal | Schumpeter in the White House
The 2012 presidential race will be, in part, a showdown between two different models of economic growth.
Washington Times | Killers of banks and jobs
Last week, Jamie Dimon, CEO of the nation’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, revealed that the bank had made a $2 billion-plus trading mistake. The bank has more than $2 trillion in assets and made a profit of about $20 billion last year. So it lost one-tenth of 1 percent of its assets and an amount equal to about 10 percent of its income for last year. No big deal
Forbes | Rep. Paul Ryan Schools Georgetown On How to Help the Poor
On April 26, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan delivered the 2012 Whittington Lecture at Georgetown University focused on his 2013 budget and its implications for poverty programs and the poor. That budget has now passed the House of Representatives.
WSJ | Losing Money Isn't a Crime
Regulators, politicians and news reporters are hysterical at the news of J.P. Morgan's recent $2 billion trading loss. The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating to see whether laws were broken.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Atlantic | The 1% Conundrum: How Much Income Inequality Is There, Really?
My last post provided an initial look at the inequality figures focusing on "the top one percent," which show sharply rising income concentration over the past 30 years.  But those figures rely entirely or heavily on tax return data from the IRS.  This creates some issues that warrant skepticism about the magnitude of the increase I described.
Calculated Risk | Schedule for Week of May 13th
This will be a busy week. There are two key housing reports to be released this week: May homebuilder confidence on Tuesday, and April housing starts on Wednesday.
Atlantic | What Really Happened to Income Inequality in the 20th Century?
I promised that this was the last post I would write this week dwelling on rising inequality at the top, and I do want to shift to the comparatively under-appreciated lack of rising inequality in the bottom half of incomes.  But bear with me, as this turned into two separate posts. 
Calculated Risk | Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 924 Institutions
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 11, 2012.
WSJ | Companies Aim to Start Spending Trillions They’re Hoarding
Corporations around the globe are finally planning to spend some of the nearly $8 trillion in emergency cash they’ve amassed.
John Taylor | More Evidence on What Is Holding the Economy Back
Milton Friedman’s “plucking model” should be back in fashion now because it reminds us of the historical fact that throughout American history—until now—the deeper the recession, the faster the recovery.