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Wednesday, August 1, 2012

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Euro-Zone Manufacturing Decline Steepens
Euro-zone factory activity fell at its steepest rate in more than three years in July, and export orders plunged despite a weakening euro, suggesting the economy will struggle to recover from its downturn any time soon.
CNN Money | Are you poor if you have a flat-screen TV?
For instance, some 62% of households earning less than $20,000 annually owned between two and four televisions, according to the 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy. That compares to 68% of those earning $120,000 or more.
WSJ | Asia Shows More Signs of Slowing
A slowdown in China's manufacturing sector in July added to a broader ramp-down in the region, as slack demand in Europe and the U.S. continued to erode growth in Asia's export-driven economies.
Market Watch | Standard & Poor's keeps Spain outlook at negative
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said Wednesday it is keeping Spain's long and short-term sovereign debt rating at BBB+/A-2 and the outlook negative.
WSJ | Hopes for a Turnaround Grow Dimmer as Worried Consumers Save, Don't Spend
Americans are earning more money—but socking it away and not spending, undermining hopes for a consumer-driven rebound.
FOX Business | Manufacturing Sector Shrinks for Second Month
The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank for the second month in a row in July as new orders improved modestly but employment dropped to a 2-1/2-year low.
WSJ | Moody's Cuts U.K. Economic Forecast
Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday cut its forecast for the U.K. economy, saying the country's economic and fiscal outlook have weakened due to the euro-zone crisis.
WSJ | Housing Notches Gains
Home prices rose for the fourth consecutive month across the nation, providing more evidence that the housing market is recovering.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Heritage Foundation | Commemorating Milton Friedman’s 100th Birthday with the Index of Economic Freedom
July 31, 2012, is the one hundredth anniversary of the birth of the great economist and thinker Milton Friedman. It was Friedman who first suggested that the economic freedom of countries be measured and monitored, and The Heritage Foundation has been doing so since 1995 in its Index of Economic Freedom.
Washington Times | Unsustainable investments
Spending other people’s money is what the left does best, so it’s no surprise congressional Democrats would come up with a scheme to bankroll pet causes with cash from retirees.
CNN Money | Invest for a low, slow recovery
In three years since the Great Recession ended, the economy has been running at temps that only a barbecue pit master could love: just hot enough to smoke a bit but nowhere near enough to sizzle. And that's not likely to change anytime soon.
CATO | Regulation, Market Structure, and Role of the Credit Rating Agencies
During the financial crisis of 2008, the financial markets would have been better served if the credit rating agency industry had been more competitive.
WSJ | How to Avoid Another Bank Bailout
Federal deposit insurance was enacted in the 1930s to prevent runs on banks by giving nervous depositors confidence that Uncle Sam would protect their money. But Congress was not about to let federally insured commercial banks trade, underwrite and speculate in securities or commodities.
NBER | The Behavioralist Goes to School: Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Educational Performance
A long line of research on behavioral economics has established the importance of factors that are typically absent from the standard economic framework: reference dependent preferences, hyperbolic preferences, and the value placed on non-financial rewards.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Political Calculations | Updated GDP Forecast for 2012-Q2 and a Peek at Q3
Going by our preferred Modified Limo forecasting technique, we now see a 50% probability that real GDP in 2012-Q2 will be finalized at a value over $13,608.0 billion, and a 50% probability that it will be finalized under that level.
Library of Economics | Gillespie and de Rugy on Generational Warfare
One thing that has always bothered me, that started in the 1970s and early 1980s, was the language used to talk about Medicare and Social Security. In Washington, these programs are referred to as "mandatory."
Calculated Risk | MBA: Refinance Activity Highest in Three Years
The Refinance Index increased 0.8 percent from the previous week to its highest level since the week ending April 17, 2009.
Economist | The bad horribles
For over a year, the Treasury Department has been trying to gin up more assistance for struggling underwater homeowners.
Greg Mankiw | The President's Rosy Scenario
I have been looking through the Obama administration's midsession review, which was released a few days ago.  I found the comparison between the adminstration's economic forecast and the Blue Chip consensus of private forecasters noteworthy. 
WSJ | Families to Shoulder Rising College Tuition Costs, Treasury Official Says
Higher education is critical for economic mobility, but rising tuition costs and a decrease of public funding means that more of the financing responsibilities could be shifted to family wealth — a particular challenge in today’s economy, the Treasury Department’s top economist said Tuesday.
John Taylor | Still Learning from Milton Friedman
We can still learn much from Milton Friedman, who was born 100 years ago today. Here I focus on his role in the macroeconomic debates of the 1960s and 1970s, because they are so similar to the debates raging again today.