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Friday, September 28, 2012

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Data Point to Euro-Zone Recession
The euro-zone economy has probably entered recession, while a jump in the inflation rate for the currency bloc is likely to limit European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's scope for further monetary policy easing.
Market Watch | More evidence of housing recovery
Here’s another sign that a housing recovery is afoot: Prices on a per-square-foot basis rose in 78 of the nation’s 100 most active housing markets over the latest three-month period, according to the latest figures from the field.
NY Times | Enrollment Drops Again in Graduate Programs
Enrollment in college is still climbing, but students are increasingly saying no to graduate school in the United States.
WSJ | Japan Data Show Recession Risk Growing
Data released by the government Friday showed that Japan's economy may be slowing more than expected and could possibly move into a recession.
USA Today | USA TODAY analysis: Nation's water costs rushing higher
While most Americans worry about gas and heating oil prices, water rates have surged in the past dozen years, according to a USA TODAY study of 100 municipalities. Prices at least doubled in more than a quarter of the locations and even tripled in a few.
CNN Money | Major banks hit with biggest cyberattacks in history
There's a good chance your bank's website was attacked over the past week.
Market Watch | Consumer spending climbs 0.5% in August
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose in August by the fasted amount in six months, according to the latest government data.
Bloomberg | Business Activity in U.S. Shrinks for First Time Since 2009
Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted in September for the first time in three years, adding to signs manufacturing will contribute less to the economic recovery.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | As Good As It Gets?
Mr. Obama told Americans in 2009 that if he did not turn around the economy in three years his Presidency would be "a one-term proposition." Joe Biden said three years ago that the $830 billion economic stimulus was working beyond his "wildest dreams" and he famously promised several months after the Obama stimulus was enacted that Americans would enjoy a "summer of recovery." That was more than three years ago.
Real Clear Markets | Violent Protests Mar Draghi and the ECB's False Narrative
To believe the headlines, Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank had saved the day earlier this month when they announced their unlimited short-term sovereign debt-buying program, which they boringly named outright monetary transactions (OTM).
WSJ | Financial Recessions Don't Lead to Weak Recoveries
There's a belief among policy makers that serious recessions associated with financial crises are necessarily followed by slow recoveries—like the one we've experienced since mid-2009. But this widespread belief is mistaken.
AEI | Raising minimum wage is sure bet to create more jobless young Americans
The unemployment rate for 16 to 19 year olds was an astonishingly high 23.8 percent last month. The United States is facing a youth employment crisis.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Library of Economics | The Bottom One Percent
We often hear a lot, especially from those who want to tear them down, about the top 1 percent. We don't hear nearly as much about the bottom 1 percent. Who are they? Where are they? Why are they in the bottom 1 percent? And what should we do about them?
WSJ | EU, U.S. Recession Risks May Put the Brakes on Emerging-Market Expansion
The euro-zone debt crisis, U.S. budget problems and potential domestic credit bubbles could wreak havoc in emerging markets if authorities don’t act now to bolster their crisis buffers.
AEI | ‘It’s all unraveling’ | Is this the last quarter of the recovery?
Has the U.S. economy turned a corner? Yes, and then another corner and now it’s going backward. A slew of bad economic data today.
Café Hayek | Changing Family Structure
This fascinating collection of charts from the Tax Foundation includes these two charts that show how much demographics have changed and how difficult it is to draw conclusions over time

Health Care

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | ObamaCare's Tax Raid on Medical Devices
The Supreme Court decision in June upholding the Affordable Care Act leaves in place a tax on medical devices that threatens thousands of American jobs and our global competitiveness. It will also stifle critical medical innovation in the industry that gave us defibrillators, pacemakers, artificial joints, stents, chemotherapy delivery systems and almost every device we depend on to save lives.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Commission: Reform, but don't kill, Libor
A new report by British authorities released Friday recommends that Libor, a key benchmark for interest rates worldwide, should be changed but not tossed out. The highly anticipated report comes after a massive scandal in which banks rigged the rate for their own benefit.
CNBC | Tying Fed Policy to Jobs 'Risky and Dangerous': Plosser
Keeping U.S. monetary policy extraordinarily loose until the jobless rate hits a defined level could be very dangerous, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said on Thursday.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | The Fed keeps on printing money
Two weeks ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke announced the purchase of $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities per month for an indefinite period of time. This debt acquisition is known as quantitative easing, or QE.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Libor overhaul: 10-point digested read
Global banking’s preferred third-party acronym, Libor — the London interbank offered rate — is facing a new dawn, British regulators said Friday. Martin Wheatley, who is the Financial Service Authority’s conduct-enforcer-in-chief, is suggesting that oversight over the method by which banks determine how much to charge each other for borrowing should be fixed.

Taxes

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | Mitt Romney was right about the 47 percent
Mitt Romney hit the bull’s-eye with his comments regarding the 47 percent of Americans who do not have any skin in the game as it pertains to paying federal income tax. Facts are facts.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
CATO | Evidence from England Shows that If You Want to ‘Soak the Rich,’ Keep Tax Rates Low
I’ve pulled evidence from IRS publications to show that rich people paid a lot more to Uncle Sam after Reagan reduced the top tax rate from 70 percent to 28 percent.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | German Jobless Claims Rise Again
German jobless claims increased for a sixth-straight month in September, indicating that Europe's erstwhile job machine is sputtering.
Daily Finance | Hopeful Sign? U.S. Unemployment Claims Fall To 2 Month Low
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level in two months, a hopeful sign for a labor market that has struggled to gain traction in recent months.
Market Watch | Labor Dept. says it underestimated job growth
The U.S. government announced Thursday that it has likely underestimated job creation in the year ended March 2012.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Library of Economics | How Much do 99 Weeks of Unemployment Benefits Raise the Unemployment Rate?
If we cut unemployment benefits back to the usual 26 weeks, a 1% fall in the unemployment rate wouldn't cause a 1% rise in the employment rate.
WSJ | Nearly 400,000 More Jobs Added Than First Thought
The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday released an early look at its annual “benchmark revision” of its payroll data. When the preliminary revisions become final early next year, the official data should show that there were 386,000 more jobs in March than previously believed. The private sector did even better, adding 453,000 jobs versus previous estimates.
Café Hayek | The recession and recovery in one picture
In Part I of the Numbers Game interview I did with John Taylor, he pointed out that the ratio of employment to population hadn’t rebounded at all in the current recovery. How common is that?

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Spain Unveils New Set of Overhauls
The Spanish government on Thursday unveiled a package of regulatory overhauls, tax increases and spending cuts for 2013, gaining a short-term market reprieve as concerns mount over Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's ability to stabilize the euro zone's fourth-largest economy.
FOX News | US Postal Service to default on second $5B payment
The U.S. Postal Service is on the brink of default on a second multibillion-dollar payment it can't afford to pay.
CNBC | Corporate America Sweats as US Nears ‘Fiscal Cliff’
Top U.S. executives have less confidence in the business outlook now than at any time in the past three years — and a key reason is fear of gridlock in Washington over the fiscal deficit and tax policy.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Investors | Our Unsustainable Entitlement Nation
When we talk about recipients of entitlements, we are typically referring to either of two kinds of Americans: the poor and the elderly. For decades, those have been the two areas of the population we have seen fit to subsidize through an alphabet soup of programs. Increasingly, however, that's only where the entitlement conversation begins, not where it ends.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Is There Hope for High-Debt Economies?
Public debt in advanced economies is now at its highest level since World War II, exceeding 100% of GDP in Japan, the U.S. and several European nations. Are they doomed?

Thursday, September 27, 2012

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | GDP report: Economic growth revised lower
The U.S. economy grew even slower than initially reported in the second quarter, as both consumers and businesses spent less than originally thought, and the drought in the Midwest limited agricultural production.
Bloomberg | Orders for U.S. Goods Excluding Transportation Unexpectedly Drop
Demand for U.S. durable goods other than transportation equipment unexpectedly dropped in August for a third consecutive month, signaling that slowdowns in business investment and exports will further restrain the economic recovery.
CNN Money | Nearly one-in-five households have student loans
Some 19% of households had student loans in 2010, up from 15% just three years earlier, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center released Wednesday.
FOX Business | Pending Home Sales Fall 2.3% in August
Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes slipped in August due to a shortage of lower priced inventory in most of the country, an industry group said on Thursday.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Bloomberg | On Keystone, Environmentalists Lose by Winning
TransCanada Corp. (TRP)’s proposed $7.6 billion Keystone pipeline system, which would take crude from Alberta’s tar sands down through the Midwest and on to Texas and the Gulf Coast refineries, could be scuttled because of concerns about its potential impact on a major aquifer in Nebraska.
CNN Money | Equal wages, better economy
In which countries do men and women earn a similar amount—and what does that mean for those economies? Fortune investigates.
NBER | Do Patent Pools Encourage Innovation? Evidence from 20 U.S. Industries under the New Deal
Patent pools, which allow competing firms to combine their patents, have emerged as a prominent mechanism to resolve litigation when multiple firms own patents for the same technology.
Heritage Foundation | Obama's End Run on Welfare Reform, Part Two: Dismantling Workfare
In 1996, Congress enacted welfare reform legislation. This reform replaced the old Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program with a new program entitled Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). The immediate effects of welfare reform were striking.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Fiscal cliff breeds C-suite worries
New surveys out Wednesday of both chief executive officers and chief financial officers cite the “fiscal cliff” — the tax increases and spending cuts looming at the beginning of next year — as weighing on hiring and expanding business.
Political Calculations | The Recovery in Housing Prices
To achieve that level of stability, the U.S. Federal Reserve had to push long-term interest rates below the levels the market would otherwise set to all-time low levels, which it has primarily done using its quantitative easing programs of the last several years.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Health Care IT | Providers respond to Holder, Sebelius on 'troubling indications' of EHR fraud
Hospital organizations are responding to a stern letter sent Sept. 24 by U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, which warns against using electronic health records to artificially inflate Medicare and Medicaid payments.
Health Care IT | Answers to healthcare reform can be found locally, RWJF says
In the widespread quest to find remedies for America's pricey healthcare system, some say the answers lie locally, from the bottom up.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | What QE3 means for China and rest of Asia
Now that most of the developed world's major central banks have all committed to some form of open-ended quantitative easing, we can start to make some concrete predictions about the effects this will have in Asia.
Market Watch | Fed’s next move: Buy more Treasurys
The Federal Reserve’s next move will be to outright buy Treasurys, most likely at its meeting in early December, Fed watchers said Wednesday.
CNBC | Fed Virtually Funding the Entire US Deficit: Lindsey
The latest round of extraordinary Federal Reserve stimulus is risky and leaves little room to maneuver should another crisis hit, economist Lawrence Lindsey told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | The Fed keeps on printing money
Two weeks ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke announced the purchase of $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities per month for an indefinite period of time. This debt acquisition is known as quantitative easing, or QE.
WSJ | Easy Money Is Punishing the Middle Class
With the Republican Party committed to a gold commission and the Federal Reserve committed to easy money, a substantive debate about the principles underpinning our monetary system is finally in the offing.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | After Brief QE3 Fever, Inflation Expectations Cool
Longer-term inflation expectations are pulling back again after a brief run-up driven by the Federal Reserve‘s latest bond-buying program.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Fiscal cliff: Payroll tax cut may not survive
For all the uncertainty over how lawmakers will handle the expiring tax cuts under the fiscal cliff, there seems to be growing clarity surrounding at least one measure: the temporary 2% payroll tax cut.
CNBC | Tax Hikes Coming No Matter Who Wins White House
Regardless of who wins the White House this November, the new health-care law will raise taxes on high-income Americans next year—and that could have implications for stocks and other assets.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Telegraph | If you want the rich to pay more tax, let them grow even richer
This is nonsense, as even a cursory analysis of the official statistics reveals. The top 1pc, who earn £156,000 or above, will pay a whopping 24.2pc of all income tax this year, a much higher contribution than their 10.8pc share of all income.
Washington Times | Taxing marriage
Congress packed its bags and left town last week without resolving the “fiscal cliff.” As things stand, the George W. Bush tax rates will expire Jan. 1, leaving us all liable for sending trillions more to Uncle Sam each year.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
FOX Business | Who is the 47% Not Paying Taxes?
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s recent remarks caught on camera regarding the 47% of Americans who don’t pay income tax are all over the news

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Jobless claims fell to lowest level since July
The number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, hitting its lowest level since July.
Bloomberg | Claims for U.S. Jobless Benefits Fall More Than Forecast
Fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week, a sign the labor market is getting back on track.
CNN Money | Workers give up in Los Angeles
The unemployment rate has been falling lately in Los Angeles County, but not for the right reasons.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
NY Post | Oops Report spills the beans on jobs nos.
Thursday is Oops Report time. That’s when the Labor Department will tell us if it has been correctly tabulating the number of jobs in this country. Or, more precisely, it will tell us how much it has erred in the reporting of the job market.
WSJ | The Social-Enterprise Approach to Job Creation
When he was in high school, a young man I'll call David started smoking marijuana and using cocaine. He became addicted, and he abused the trust of those who loved him until he had burned every bridge. David drifted from city to city, sometimes ending up in jail for months at a time.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | EU Urges Action to Fix Debt Woes
The European Commission Wednesday distanced itself from a German, Finnish and Dutch statement that appeared to dash hopes that the euro zone's bailout fund could soon be used to directly recapitalize banks in countries like Spain, which stands on the brink of bankruptcy because of a severe banking crisis.
Roll Call | House Quiet on Fiscal Cliff Strategy
The Senate is abuzz with meetings, planning and trial balloons on how Congress will address the fiscal cliff, a phenomenon that threatens a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts in the new year that most economists believe could tip the United States back into recession.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Markets | Will Texas Squander Its Prosperity?
Texas has been on a roll recently. Fueled by a booming energy sector, the state has easily outpaced others in job growth. Business executives consistently rate it among the most desirable places to invest in, and Texas has made a habit recently of poaching jobs from places like California.
WSJ | Guessing the Fiscal Cliff's Fate
Is Congress going to drive the U.S. economy over the fiscal cliff? Is Washington so dysfunctional that Congress and the president, risking renewed recession, will let taxes rise sharply and spending be cut across the board?
AEI | Has the ECB really solved the Euro crisis?
Judging by the very favorable market reaction to Mario Draghi's announcement in July 2012 that the ECB would do whatever it took to save the euro, one could be forgiven for thinking that the European debt crisis has now finally been resolved. However, European policymakers would be making a grave mistake if they were to allow themselves to be lulled into a false sense of security by the market's relative calm.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
National Review | The President’s Trillion-Dollar Deficits
Who remembers President Obama’s first budget? I do. It was called “A New Era of Responsibility.” Back then, the president promised that he would cut the deficit to $912 billion in 2011 and to $581 billion by 2012. But that’s another of the president’s promises that never come to pass.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Consumers spent 3.3% more in 2011
Consumers opened their wallets last year, spending an average 3.3% more on household expenditures than they did in 2010, according to federal data released Tuesday. Average annual spending rose to$49,705, the first yearly increase since 2008, the height of the Great Recession.
Market Watch | Home prices climb for fourth month in row
U.S. home prices rose in July for the fourth straight month to reach their highest level in nearly two years, according to an index released Tuesday.
Bloomberg | Americans Feeling Better Than in 2009 Amid Skepticism on Obama
Public confidence in the U.S. economy is bolstering President Barack Obama’s re-election chances even as Americans continue to view his stewardship skeptically.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Dodd-Frank's 'Orderly Liquidation' Is Out of Order
'The tendency of the law must always be to narrow the field of uncertainty." Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes wrote that more than a century ago, but the sentiment runs all the way to our nation's roots. Under our Constitution, the rule of law provides the certainty and transparency necessary to protect individual liberty and support economic growth.
CRS | Energy Policy: Election Year Issues and Legislative Proposals
Energy policy in the United States has focused on three major goals: assuring a secure supply of energy, keeping energy costs low, and protecting the environment. In pursuit of those goals, government programs have been developed to improve the efficiency with which energy is utilized, to promote the domestic production of conventional energy sources, and to develop new energy sources, particularly renewable sources.
NBER | Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds
This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since Solow’s seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever.
AEI | The Internet doesn't need more regulation
Two cases on data roaming and net neutrality deal with similar economic issues: Will more regulation improve the market for Internet-based communications?

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Economist | When did Washington change?
Last week, the Census Bureau published new county-level income data, which revealed that seven of the nation's ten richest counties are located in the Washington metropolitan area, a share that has only risen of late.
The Big Picture | The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?
It has been almost a year since we predicted a recession. Back in December, we went on to specify the time frame for it to begin: if not by the first quarter of the year, then by mid-2012. But we also said at the time that the recession would not be evident before the end of the year.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Hospitals: Feds share billing blame
A threat from Health and Human Services and the Department of Justice to crack down on questionable Medicare billing has drawn a fairly strong rejoinder from two major hospital groups who say federal regulators deserve part of the blame.
USA Today | Report: Premium hikes for top Medicare drug plans
Seniors enrolled in seven of the 10 most popular Medicare prescription drug plans will be hit with double-digit premium hikes next year if they don't shop for a better deal, says a private firm that analyzes the highly competitive market.
National Journal | Will Health Rebate Checks Help Obama?
For many insured Americans, the first tangible benefit of President Obama's signature health care law recently landed in their mailboxes: a check from their insurance company.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
CATO | Subsidies for Electronic Medical Records Leads to Higher Medicare Bills
Government subsidies often produce unintended consequences. The latest example comes from the New York Times, which reports that federal subsidizes to encourage doctors and hospitals to use electronic billing and recording records are leading to larger Medicare bills.
Heritage Foundation | Obamacare Spends More Than a Trillion in Taxpayer Dollars and Still Leaves 30 Million People Uninsured
Four years later, the country has 48.6 million people without health insurance and a $1.68 trillion health care law that, if it even works as claimed, would still leave 30 million people without health care.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | The emerging headache of QE3: Andy Xie
The Fed has promised to purchase $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) per month until it is satisfied with the economy. By all accounts an unemployment rate above 7% is not satisfactory to the Fed.
Market Watch | 8 early warning signs inflation is percolating
They don’t ring a bell at the top of a bull market nor at the bottom of a bear market. But when it comes to inflation there are some early warning signs that investors can monitor, according to a new report.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Investors | Fed Casts Vote Against Housing Reform With QE3
The Treasury Department outlined three paths for reforming housing finance early last year, including one that would dramatically shrink the government's role.
Washington Times | What Fed policy says about Obama economy
Has Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke gone all political on us? Very unlikely, though it may look that way. But he does seem deeply worried about the sliding U.S. economy under President Obama’s policies.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Central Banker
The double think, deception and distortion of the cold-war era looks like it’s being reproduced today. Except, unlike then, when it was state trying to manipulate state, now it’s central banks manipulating individuals and markets.

Taxes

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | U.S. should ax destructive tax
It’s difficult to say definitively which tax is the most destructive. The corporate income tax is a leading candidate for causing higher prices to consumers, lower wages to workers and lower returns to investors.
Washington Times | Relief for American enterprise
The U.S. economy is in desperate need of a boost. That’s not surprising considering our businesses struggle under a tax burden higher than what is found in any other major industrialized nation. It’s long past time to slash these rates and restore the competitiveness of American industry.
CATO | The IRS Has Gone Rogue
A president who says “I haven’t raised taxes” has authorized his Internal Revenue Service issue a “final rule” that will illegally tax some 12 million individuals, plus large employers, in as many as 40 states beginning in 2014. Oklahoma’s attorney general has asked a federal court to block this rule. Members of Congress have introduced legislation in both the House and the Senate to quash it.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Library of Economics | Hoisted from the Comments: Is European Progressivity Tiebout?
A supporting piece of evidence is that the US has a more progressive national taxation system - far more progressive - than most / all European nations, and it is far far easier to exit the European tax regimes than the US federal regime.
AEI | UK tax reform: A roadmap for the U.S.?
While our combined corporate rate of 39.1 percent may be old news, what can or should be done about it is still a highly relevant question. Among others, AEI’s Kevin Hassett has stressed the importance of corporate tax reform, but what form the reforms should take is highly debated.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Ford to cut hundreds of jobs in Europe
Ford Motor said Wednesday that it plans to cut hundreds of jobs in Europe in an effort to reduce costs.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | Job creation is free in the private sector
In the midst of a persistently and painfully sluggish economy, there has been a lot of debate about the role of government in boosting the economy and promoting job creation. Part of this debate has focused on President Obama’s stimulus bill — and whether or not the cost of the “jobs created or saved” was too high.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Euro Zone Considers Central Budget to Fix Cracks
Euro-zone governments have begun discussions about creating a central budget for the currency union aimed at smoothing over some of the region's economic divergences, after Germany indicated support for the idea, European officials say.
National Journal | Geithner: Tax and Entitlement Reforms Essential to Deal With 'Fiscal Cliff'
A resolution to the drastic year-end spending cuts and expiring tax cuts known collectively as the “fiscal cliff” has to include a balance of tax and entitlement reforms, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday.
CNN Money | Postal Service to move closer to insolvency
At the end of this month, the U.S. Postal Service takes another step toward insolvency.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | The 10% President
A question raised by President Obama's immortal line on CBS's "60 Minutes" on Sunday—"I think that, you know, as President, I bear responsibility for everything, to some degree"—is what that degree really is. Maybe 70% or 80% of the buck stops with him? Or is it halfsies?

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Banks That Flunked Servicing Tests Face Watchdog
Mortgage firms including Bank of America Corp. that repeatedly ignored rules meant to improve service for struggling homeowners said they’re on the verge of complying with standards ordered in a $25 billion settlement.
Market Watch | Consumer-confidence gauge rises to 7-month high
Led by expectations, a gauge of consumer confidence jumped up in September to the highest level in seven months, but remained relatively low, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
CNN Money | IMF chief: 'We need a sustained rebound'
Policymakers around the world need to make good on promises and get it right this time, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said in a speech Monday.
Market Watch | Housing stocks’ big run may slow despite good data
July’s Case-Shiller home-price index is released on Tuesday, as is the FHFA home-price index. Wednesday brings August’s new-home sales, while Thursday is August pending-home-sales day.
CNN Money | Postal Service to move closer to insolvency
At the end of this month, the U.S. Postal Service takes another step toward insolvency.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | The 10% President
A question raised by President Obama's immortal line on CBS's "60 Minutes" on Sunday—"I think that, you know, as President, I bear responsibility for everything, to some degree"—is what that degree really is. Maybe 70% or 80% of the buck stops with him? Or is it halfsies?
CNN Money | Goldman: Fed's QE3 could hit $2 trillion
The Federal Reserve's QE3 bond buying program announced earlier this month could last until the middle of 2015 and eventually reach $2 trillion, according to an estimate from economists at Goldman Sachs.
CATO | We Need to Reform Poorly Designed Entitlement Programs
Mitt Romney is getting criticized for his surreptitiously recorded remarks about 47 percent of voters automatically being Barack Obama supporters because they don't pay federal income tax and thus see themselves as beneficiaries of big government. I think Romney raised an important issue, but he used the wrong statistic and jumped to the wrong conclusion.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | President Obama: Wrong on Rhetoric, Wrong on Trade Policy
Trade policy is once again in the spotlight with President Obama’s announcement this week of a new suit against China in the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Coordination Problem | Is Hayek's Argument for Liberal Government Incoherent?
I have been reading Stephen Elkin's Reconstructing the Commerical Republic (Chicago, 2006) and I find the book to be very challenging despite my ultimate disagreement with his criticisms of the classical liberal project as I envision it.
Heritage Foundation | FACT CHECK: Obama Misleads on Medicare, Taxes, and Regulations
During a Sunday evening interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes,” President Obama made numerous factually inaccurate or misleading claims.
Marginal Revolution | We are no longer in the short run
NGDP is almost 10 percent higher now than it was at the pre-crash peak. The number of people employed, even with population growth, is still below the pre-crash peak.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Obama Administration Warns Hospitals on Fraud
The Obama administration warned hospitals on Monday that the government would vigorously pursue cases of fraud involving the use of electronic medical records to inflate bills and generate extra revenue.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Politico | War of words on Medicare Advantage
The Obama administration will announce later this week that the quality of private Medicare plans is on the rise, thanks to an $8 billion demonstration project that pays them bonuses for good performance.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
CATO | Should States Implement ObamaCare’s ‘Essential Health Benefits’ Mandate?
The Washington Post‘s Sarah Kliff writes that the Department of Health and Human Services has decided to “punt” on the “monumental” task of dictating exactly what types of coverage those who get health insurance through the individual market or small employers must purchase.
Library of Economics | Will ACA's cost-cutters outcut private insurers?
Earlier this month, health experts from the Obama Administration wrote up some advice on the next steps for health reform in the New England Journal of Medicine.  I recommend reading it: Not too technical, about 2500 words, it gives you a glance into your likely future.  

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Goldman: Fed's QE3 could hit $2 trillion
The Federal Reserve's QE3 bond buying program announced earlier this month could last until the middle of 2015 and eventually reach $2 trillion, according to an estimate from economists at Goldman Sachs.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Market Watch | Fed’s Williams: QE3 asset buying may be expanded
The Federal Reserve could expand its stimulus package to include assets other than mortgage-backed securities if the U.S. economy fails to respond to its latest effort to jump-start the economy.
AEI | Why the stimulus failed
Ask most Americans about the big-spending government policies of the last few years, and they will tell you the programs have failed.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Obama's 18 small business tax cuts - explained
President Obama often touts his 18 small business tax cuts, but there's some confusion as to what they really are.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Tax Reform in 2013?
It was overshadowed by the presidential race tug-of-war, but on Thursday the House and Senate held a rare joint hearing on tax reform. There was the usual partisan wrangling over who should pay how much, but there was some bipartisan agreement as well.
Washington Times | U.S. should ax destructive tax
It’s difficult to say definitively which tax is the most destructive. The corporate income tax is a leading candidate for causing higher prices to consumers, lower wages to workers and lower returns to investors.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Tax Foundation | Monday Map: Nonpayers By State
Today's Monday Map updates a map we did a couple of years ago looking at the geographical distribution of households that pay no income tax (using 2008 data).
CATO | ‘I Haven’t Raised Taxes’
On CBS News’s “60 Minutes” Sunday night, President Obama said, “Taxes are lower on families than they’ve been probably in the last 50 years. So I haven’t raised taxes.”
AEI | 10 stunning and myth-busting charts on the U.S. tax system
The Tax Foundation just posted a ton of super-informative, myth-dispelling charts on the U.S. tax system.
Tax Foundation | Is it True that "Just About Everyone" Eventually Pays Income Tax?
Acknowledging the fact that in any one year about half the population does not pay federal income tax, Paul Krugman and the authors of a report by the Hamilton Project argue that what matters is the life cycle, i.e. how much someone pays in tax over his or her life.  True, in many ways this matters, just as income over the life cycle matters. 

Employment

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
CATO | Stop Demonizing Job Creators
Like too many other long-reigning fixtures on Capitol Hill, Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) doesn't appreciate the magnitude of the challenge to the authority he presumes to hold over America's job and wealth creators. Or, maybe he does, and frustration over that fact explains why he besmirches companies like Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Hewlett-Packard.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
FOX Business | Toys R Us to Hire 45,000 for the Holidays
Toys R Us on Tuesday said it would hire 45,000 seasonal employees for the upcoming holiday shopping period, becoming the latest retailer to increase its hiring in anticipation of a modest bump in consumer spending.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | South Korea Delays Fiscal Balance to Boost Economy
The South Korean government said Tuesday that it would continue to run a fiscal deficit next year to stimulate Asia's fourth-largest economy, pushing out the target of a balanced budget by a year.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | The 10% President
A question raised by President Obama's immortal line on CBS's "60 Minutes" on Sunday—"I think that, you know, as President, I bear responsibility for everything, to some degree"—is what that degree really is. Maybe 70% or 80% of the buck stops with him? Or is it halfsies?

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Political Calculations | The Zero Deficit Line in 2012
Now that the U.S. Census has released its newest estimate of median household income in the United States, it's time to consider where the U.S. federal government spending per U.S. household stands with respect to the Zero Deficit Line, which is the amount of spending that the typical American household can actually afford.
WSJ | Most Economists Say Government Should Avoid Spending Cuts in 2013
The vast majority of economists responding to a new survey believe the federal government should maintain or increase spending levels next year — a shared opinion that stands in contrast to steep budget cuts set to take place in 2013.

Monday, September 24, 2012

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Wait to hit stimulus brakes: business economists
Economists who work for businesses and banks believe taxes should be raised and spending should be cut to reduce the government’s budget deficit — just not next year.
Market Watch | Big bank derivatives trading drops: report
The amount of derivatives held by insured U.S. banks and savings institutions fell for the fourth consecutive quarter, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in its second quarter report Friday.
CNN Money | German businesses remain gloomy
Faced with a persistent debt crisis in Europe, German businesses see few reasons for optimism.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
NBER | Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program
The main rationale for policy intervention in debt renegotiation is to enhance such activity when foreclosures are perceived to be inefficiently high.
Real Clear Markets | It's Time to Regulate the Regulators
For the past 30 years, first under President Reagan's Executive Order 12291, and then succeeded by President Clinton's Executive Order 12866, U.S. government executive branch agencies have been required to prepare a regulatory impact analysis, including a cost-benefit analysis, for all major federal administrative rules ("regulations") having an annual effect on the economy of $100 million or more, or those having an adverse effect on the economy or a federal agency action.
Minyanville | The Recession That Won't End
Greece is near the end of its tenure in the European Monetary Union (EMU).  Deposits continue to flee the country.  Worse, 20% of Greek bank loans are now non-performing (that number is only 9.5% in Spain, a record high there and causing increased concern).
WSJ | The Mess He Inherited
A full four years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the 2008 financial crisis continues to shape American politics. How else to explain polls showing President Obama with an edge over Mitt Romney on economic issues, despite high unemployment and stagnant incomes?
Washington Post | The American Dream’s empty promise
It’s time to retire the American Dream — or at least give it a long vacation. We ought to drop it from our national conversation.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Calculated Risk | Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 878 Institutions
As anticipated, the OCC released its actions through mid-August 2012 that led to many changes in the Unofficial Problem Bank List.
Greg Mankiw | Mankiw vs. DeLong and Krugman on the CEA’s Real GDP Forecasts in Early 2009: What Might a Time Series Econometrician Have Said?
In early 2009, the incoming Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisers predicted real GDP would rebound strongly from recession levels.
Calculated Risk | Schedule for Week of Sept 23rd
Other key reports include the third estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday, and August Personal Income and Spending on Friday.
National Review | 55 Percent of americans Say Government Has Too Much Influence Over Our Lives
A new Reason Foundation poll finds that a majority of people believe that the government has too much influence on their lives (so do I).
John Taylor | Regulatory Expansion Versus Economic Expansion in Two Recoveries
Much can be learned by comparing the very weak recovery from the 2007-2009 recession with the very strong recovery from the 1981-82 recession.