Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | Type the Title You Want People to See
Janet Yellen ’s job is about to get harder after a relatively easy first year as Federal Reserve chairwoman.
Telegraph | Sadly for all our futures, cheap money is here to stay. Just get used to it
When will interest rates rise again? Will they indeed ever rise again? According to the one-time American baseball player Yogi Berra, it is tough to make predictions, especially about the future. The idea that nominal rates will remain pegged at close to zero for all eternity is, of course, nonsense; nobody sensible would ever make such a forecast.
Bloomberg View | The What and the Why in Fed's Next Moves
As the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its first two-daypolicy meeting of 2015 today, Federal Reserve officials have been weighing a complicated tug of war between domestic and international economic considerations. They are also aware of the uncertainties associated with Europe’s increasingly fluid political and geopolitical situation. As such, look for them to stand pat, pushing any major policy signaling to their next meeting, in mid-March.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | What to Watch at This Week’s Fed Meeting
The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday is likely to yield at most marginal changes to the central bank’s economic assessment and policy signals, with officials await more economic data before deciding when to raise interest rates.
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
General Economics
News
Market Watch | Orders for durable goods sink in December
Orders for durable goods declined sharply in December, raising questions about whether businesses are really ready to ramp up investment in 2015.
Market Watch | U.S. home prices edge 0.2% lower in November: Case-Shiller
U.S. house prices edged back by 0.2% in November, to lower the year-on-year advance to 4.3%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite released Tuesday.
Market Watch | Consumer confidence index jumps to seven-year high of 102.9
Consumer confidence jumped in January to the best reading since August 2007, according to the latest reading from the Conference Board. The consumer-confidence index rose to 102.9 from 93.1 in December, above the MarketWatch-compiled economist forecast of 96.9.
Market Watch | New-home sales jump 11.6% to 481,000 annual rate in December
Sales of new single-family homes rose sharply in December, helping sales for the year to show a modest increase from 2013, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Sales of new single-family homes jumped 11.6% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Real Clear Markets | If the president really wants to help the middle class, he will stop trying to mandate equal results and concentrate instead on legislating equal opportunity.
In his recent State of the Union speech, President Obama extolled the virtues of "middle class economics," as a means of spurring economic growth and creating a more inclusive economy. Just what this entails is unclear, but President Obama says this "means helping folks afford child care, college, health care, a home, retirement, and my budget will address each of these issues, lowering the taxes of working families and putting thousands of dollars back into their pockets each year." On closer examination, the policy agenda the president is laying out is a tired mix of class warfare, new taxes, and more government spending.
Market Watch | The right way to help the middle class
If the president really wants to help the middle class, he will stop trying to mandate equal results and concentrate instead on legislating equal opportunity.
The Daily Beast | Making Free Trade Sexy
A true free trade agenda should be the cornerstone of any “middle class economics” platform. Open international markets lower domestic prices for consumers, increase export opportunities for small and big business alike, and induce formerly-protected manufacturers to improve and compete on a global stage. But we shouldn’t expect Obama to embrace the benefits of free trade just yet.
Washington Times | Obama’s illusory economic recovery
The big news from this week's State of the Union address is that the economic "crisis is over." Apparently, we've been rescued from a second Great Depression and everything this president has done to fix the economy has worked.
Wall Street Journal | A Modest Uptick in American Economic Freedom
A steep, seven-year decline in U.S. economic freedom has come to an end, according to the 2015 Index of Economic Freedom, published Tuesday by the Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. score in the index experienced a particularly large drop in 2009-10, pushing this country out of the “free” category and into the “mostly free” category. A slight 0.7-point uptick this year has allowed the U.S. to retain its 12th-place ranking.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Behind the CBO’s Forecast: Visions of the 3rd Longest Expansion in U.S. History
The Congressional Budget Office predicts the government’s deficits will shrink in 2015 and again in 2016. As a share of the economy, it will fall to 2.5% and remain there through 2017 before beginning to rise again with the aging of the population.
Market Watch | Orders for durable goods sink in December
Orders for durable goods declined sharply in December, raising questions about whether businesses are really ready to ramp up investment in 2015.
Market Watch | U.S. home prices edge 0.2% lower in November: Case-Shiller
U.S. house prices edged back by 0.2% in November, to lower the year-on-year advance to 4.3%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite released Tuesday.
Market Watch | Consumer confidence index jumps to seven-year high of 102.9
Consumer confidence jumped in January to the best reading since August 2007, according to the latest reading from the Conference Board. The consumer-confidence index rose to 102.9 from 93.1 in December, above the MarketWatch-compiled economist forecast of 96.9.
Market Watch | New-home sales jump 11.6% to 481,000 annual rate in December
Sales of new single-family homes rose sharply in December, helping sales for the year to show a modest increase from 2013, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Sales of new single-family homes jumped 11.6% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Real Clear Markets | If the president really wants to help the middle class, he will stop trying to mandate equal results and concentrate instead on legislating equal opportunity.
In his recent State of the Union speech, President Obama extolled the virtues of "middle class economics," as a means of spurring economic growth and creating a more inclusive economy. Just what this entails is unclear, but President Obama says this "means helping folks afford child care, college, health care, a home, retirement, and my budget will address each of these issues, lowering the taxes of working families and putting thousands of dollars back into their pockets each year." On closer examination, the policy agenda the president is laying out is a tired mix of class warfare, new taxes, and more government spending.
Market Watch | The right way to help the middle class
If the president really wants to help the middle class, he will stop trying to mandate equal results and concentrate instead on legislating equal opportunity.
The Daily Beast | Making Free Trade Sexy
A true free trade agenda should be the cornerstone of any “middle class economics” platform. Open international markets lower domestic prices for consumers, increase export opportunities for small and big business alike, and induce formerly-protected manufacturers to improve and compete on a global stage. But we shouldn’t expect Obama to embrace the benefits of free trade just yet.
Washington Times | Obama’s illusory economic recovery
The big news from this week's State of the Union address is that the economic "crisis is over." Apparently, we've been rescued from a second Great Depression and everything this president has done to fix the economy has worked.
Wall Street Journal | A Modest Uptick in American Economic Freedom
A steep, seven-year decline in U.S. economic freedom has come to an end, according to the 2015 Index of Economic Freedom, published Tuesday by the Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. score in the index experienced a particularly large drop in 2009-10, pushing this country out of the “free” category and into the “mostly free” category. A slight 0.7-point uptick this year has allowed the U.S. to retain its 12th-place ranking.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Behind the CBO’s Forecast: Visions of the 3rd Longest Expansion in U.S. History
The Congressional Budget Office predicts the government’s deficits will shrink in 2015 and again in 2016. As a share of the economy, it will fall to 2.5% and remain there through 2017 before beginning to rise again with the aging of the population.
Monetary
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | The lemmings of QE
Predictably, the European Central Bank has joined the world’s other major monetary authorities in the greatest experiment in the history of central banking.
Market Watch | The lemmings of QE
Predictably, the European Central Bank has joined the world’s other major monetary authorities in the greatest experiment in the history of central banking.
Employment
Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | When Workers Choose
No Administration in decades has favored organized labor like President Obama ’s, yet union membership keeps declining, as it did again last year according to Friday’s annual report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The story seems to be that when given a choice, many union members would rather not pay for the privilege.
Wall Street Journal | Solving the Puzzle of Stagnant Wages
The elation over wage increases in private business reported in last month’s job report has been replaced by disappointment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Jan. 16 that average hourly earnings fell five cents in December, eating up most of the six-cent increase in November. Between 2010 and 2014, the average real wage fell 1.1%, a poor showing after rising 3.4% between 2006 and 2010. What accounts for this performance?
Wall Street Journal | When Workers Choose
No Administration in decades has favored organized labor like President Obama ’s, yet union membership keeps declining, as it did again last year according to Friday’s annual report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The story seems to be that when given a choice, many union members would rather not pay for the privilege.
Wall Street Journal | Solving the Puzzle of Stagnant Wages
The elation over wage increases in private business reported in last month’s job report has been replaced by disappointment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Jan. 16 that average hourly earnings fell five cents in December, eating up most of the six-cent increase in November. Between 2010 and 2014, the average real wage fell 1.1%, a poor showing after rising 3.4% between 2006 and 2010. What accounts for this performance?
Budget
News
Wall Street Journal | CBO: Deficit to Narrow, Then Widen in ’18
Existing budget restraints and stronger economic growth will chip away at the federal deficit into 2017 before the gap begins to widen again, the Congressional Budget Office said, providing ammunition for both parties ahead of the White House’s first budget proposal to the Republican-controlled Congress.
Econ Comments & Analysis
CBO | The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025
The federal budget deficit, which has fallen sharply during the past few years, is projected to hold steady relative to the size of the economy through 2018. Beyond that point, however, the gap between spending and revenues is projected to grow, further increasing federal debt relative to the size of the economy—which is already historically high.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | You Ask, We Answer: Why Is the Debt Rising Faster Than the Deficit?
Last year, the federal government’s deficit was the smallest since 2007. Doesn’t $3 trillion in revenue and $3.5 trillion in spending represent a government that’s out of control? Isn’t the deficit only okay because the Federal Reserve has pinned interest rates so low? What will happen when rates go back to normal? How can the total national debt rise faster than the deficit?
Wall Street Journal | CBO: Deficit to Narrow, Then Widen in ’18
Existing budget restraints and stronger economic growth will chip away at the federal deficit into 2017 before the gap begins to widen again, the Congressional Budget Office said, providing ammunition for both parties ahead of the White House’s first budget proposal to the Republican-controlled Congress.
Econ Comments & Analysis
CBO | The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025
The federal budget deficit, which has fallen sharply during the past few years, is projected to hold steady relative to the size of the economy through 2018. Beyond that point, however, the gap between spending and revenues is projected to grow, further increasing federal debt relative to the size of the economy—which is already historically high.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | You Ask, We Answer: Why Is the Debt Rising Faster Than the Deficit?
Last year, the federal government’s deficit was the smallest since 2007. Doesn’t $3 trillion in revenue and $3.5 trillion in spending represent a government that’s out of control? Isn’t the deficit only okay because the Federal Reserve has pinned interest rates so low? What will happen when rates go back to normal? How can the total national debt rise faster than the deficit?
Monday, January 26, 2015
General Economics
News
Market Watch | GDP, Fed meeting highlight busy week for economy
Now it’s time to find out if the U.S. economy is still a single locomotive — or an inseparable part of a larger global train that’s slowing down.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | Government Policies Caused the Financial Crisis and Made the Recession Worse
In his State of the Union address last week, President Obama argued we need government polices to build “the most competitive economy anywhere.” He’s wrong. We need the government to leave the private sector alone so that it can build the most competitive economy anywhere.
Wall Street Journal | Euro’s Big Drop Puts U.S. Economy, Federal Reserve to the Test
The European Central Bank’s launch of an aggressive program this week to buy more than €1 trillion in bonds poses important tests for the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve.
Real Clear Markets | The U.S. Economy's Achilles Heel? The Rest of the World
President Obama has declared the economic crisis over - and for the United States, maybe it seems that way. But for most other countries, not so much. Their recoveries are faltering. The obvious question is whether the global weakness will infect the U.S. expansion. This is a crucial footnote to Obama's optimism.
Market Watch | The real reason China isn’t the world’s biggest economy
Chinese leaders have been quick to put on a brave face after the ignominy of missing their economic-growth targets for first time since 1998. But while Premier Li Keqiang was telling global leaders in Davos not to worry about the economy, back at home the head of the country’s statistics bureau was rejecting claims China was already the world’s biggest economy.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Most U.S. Businesses Will See a Boost From Cheap Oil, Economists Say
Most U.S. businesses will benefit from lower oil prices this year, but the cheaper energy bill also threatens to derail a recent driver of economic growth, according to a new survey of business economists.
Market Watch | GDP, Fed meeting highlight busy week for economy
Now it’s time to find out if the U.S. economy is still a single locomotive — or an inseparable part of a larger global train that’s slowing down.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | Government Policies Caused the Financial Crisis and Made the Recession Worse
In his State of the Union address last week, President Obama argued we need government polices to build “the most competitive economy anywhere.” He’s wrong. We need the government to leave the private sector alone so that it can build the most competitive economy anywhere.
Wall Street Journal | Euro’s Big Drop Puts U.S. Economy, Federal Reserve to the Test
The European Central Bank’s launch of an aggressive program this week to buy more than €1 trillion in bonds poses important tests for the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve.
Real Clear Markets | The U.S. Economy's Achilles Heel? The Rest of the World
President Obama has declared the economic crisis over - and for the United States, maybe it seems that way. But for most other countries, not so much. Their recoveries are faltering. The obvious question is whether the global weakness will infect the U.S. expansion. This is a crucial footnote to Obama's optimism.
Market Watch | The real reason China isn’t the world’s biggest economy
Chinese leaders have been quick to put on a brave face after the ignominy of missing their economic-growth targets for first time since 1998. But while Premier Li Keqiang was telling global leaders in Davos not to worry about the economy, back at home the head of the country’s statistics bureau was rejecting claims China was already the world’s biggest economy.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Most U.S. Businesses Will See a Boost From Cheap Oil, Economists Say
Most U.S. businesses will benefit from lower oil prices this year, but the cheaper energy bill also threatens to derail a recent driver of economic growth, according to a new survey of business economists.
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