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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Foreclosed Sales at U.S. Auctions Double as Prices Gain
Purchases of foreclosed homes at auctions jumped last month as banks benefited from surging prices and shunned approvals of sales by homeowners dumping their dwellings at a loss.
CNN Money | 1 in 6 unemployed are substance abusers
About 1 in 6 unemployed workers are addicted to alcohol or drugs -- almost twice the rate for full-time workers, according to the government's National Survey on Drug Use and Health.
Bloomberg | Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rise Most Since February 2006
Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose by the most since February 2006 in the 12 months through September, showing the housing market sustained progress even as borrowing costs climbed.
FOX Business | Consumer Confidence Falls in November
U.S. consumer confidence fell in November as Americans worried about their future jobs and earnings prospects, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday.
Bloomberg | Building Permits in U.S. Jump to Five-Year High
More applications for home construction were issued in October than at any time in the past five years, a sign the U.S. residential real-estate market is gaining momentum heading into 2014.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Democrats lose 2014 edge after Obamacare uproar
A new CNN/ORC International poll spells trouble for congressional Democrats. A month ago, they held a 50%-42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot asking respondents to choose a Democrat or Republican for their district. The new poll, following the botched rollout of HealthCare.gov and controversy over canceled insurance policies, shows Republicans with a 49%-47% edge.
Economist | A Keynes for all seasons
In the years since the publication in 1936 of "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money", John Maynard Keynes’s name has been irretrievably linked to the idea that fiscal stimulus should be used to combat recession during downturns. Such ideas came to dominate economics in the 30 years after the second world war, so much so that Republican president Richard Nixon declared in 1971 that “we are all Keynesians now”.
WSJ | New Service-Sector Index Shows November Bounce Back
The private-service sector may make up more than half of U.S. gross domestic product, but it accounts for almost nothing as a share of economic data.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Hospitals Close in States That Opted Out of Medicaid Expansion
Obamacare cut hospital payments for uninsured patients, anticipating that more would be on Medicaid. Without either, hospitals are in dire straits.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | The real purpose of Obamacare
President Obama’s Affordable Care Act is practically dead. Meanwhile, the old system it was meant to replace is dead. Thus, Americans face a long and bitter struggle over what kind of health care system they will have.
Politico | It's not Obamacare, it's business
Insurance companies are ready to unleash an expensive PR blitz to get 7 million new customers once HealthCare.gov is fixed.

Monetary

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
AEI | Our worst fears about Dodd-Frank's FSOC are being confirmed
The Dodd-Frank Act created significant regulatory uncertainty when it gave the Financial Stability Oversight Council the power to designate financial firms as systemically important financial institutions or SIFIs. If the Council finds that financial firms create “systemic risks” and threaten financial stability, it can assign a SIFI designation and require the firm to satisfy enhanced capital, leverage, liquidity, and supervision requirements similar to those Dodd-Frank prescribes for large banking institutions.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Economist | Low rates forever
James Hamilton looks at some interesting new research (which derives an easy way to calculate implied forward interest rates) and finds that markets expect interest rate increases to come very gradually indeed—when, that is, the Fed finally begins raising rates.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
WSJ | EU Launches Attack on Corporate Tax Avoidance
The European Union announced twin measures aimed at curbing tax avoidance by global corporations as criticism on the budget-strapped Continent mounted over the tax practices of companies such as Apple Inc. and Google Inc.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Markets | Taxpayers Pay Dearly For Poorly Conceived GM Bailout
Federal Meddling: Remember the promise that taxpayers would get back every dollar taken from them and dumped into the General Motors bailout? The promise is coming up about $10 billion short.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
CNBC | Poll: Unprecedented anxiety over jobs
In a dreary sign of economic doldrums, more than six in 10 workers worry that they will lose their jobs, according to a Washington Post-Miller Center poll. It was the highest level in more than a dozen surveys dating to the 1970s, the newspaper reported.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Library of Economics | Rising Male Non-Employment: Supply, not Demand
Poor men are admittedly more likely than poor women to say they don't work because they can't find a job.  Yet only 20% of men below the poverty line in 2012 said this. 

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | On Budget Conference Committee, Even Small Proposals Generate Arguments
Both Republicans and Democrats on the budget conference committee agree that if the panel reaches an agreement at all, it is likely to be a small one. And so far, they're not kidding.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Markets | Why the Next Debt Limit Fight Could Convulse the Markets
Congress's latest flirtation with debt-limit default caused barely a ripple in the financial markets. Rates on short-term Treasuries spiked in early October, before quickly subsiding to more normal levels. The spread between one- and three-year Treasuries temporarily widened, but quickly fell back to a more normal trend. All told, financial markets barely blinked. Unfortunately, the next time may be worse. Here's why.

Monday, November 25, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
FOX Business | Pending Home Sales Fall in October
Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell for a fifth straight month in October, hitting a 10-month low and adding to signs of cooling in the housing market.
Washington Times | Obama administration nears trade agreement with Asia
The Obama administration is close to completing a major trade agreement with a handful of Asian countries, including Japan.
FOX Business | Economists Cut 4Q U.S. Economic Forecasts
Economists trimmed their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the final quarter of the year and the first three months of 2014 but predicted a slightly higher rate of job growth over the next four quarters.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Markets | The New Corporatism In American Capitalism
The recent release of Nobel Laureate Edmund Phelps' book Mass Flourishing (2013) may be serendipitous, but Phelps' analytic insights definitely add critical perspective on the recent firestorm of business associations' criticism against Tea Party-backed congressional Republicans blamed for the October partial shutdown of the Federal government.
Politico | A Tale of Two Purple States
Republican and Democratic strategists are anxiously awaiting the final results of the excruciatingly close Virginia attorney general’s race, where votes are still being counted. Republicans are already dejected about losing the governor’s mansion in Richmond, and giving up the AG spot would mean that every statewide office in Virginia is now held by a Democrat for the first time in four decades. But the GOP should take heart and learn an important lesson heading into 2014 by comparing its failure in the Old Dominion to what has transpired in neighboring North Carolina, another battleground state that, politically, shares Virginia’s reddish-purple hue.
Real Clear Markets | China's Growth Is In Peril, As Is Its Economy
It has been only a few years since China was widely regarded as an unstoppable economic colossus. For three decades, its economy grew about 10 percent annually; China seemed to be gliding through the global economic storm. Well, maybe not. Many economists - Chinese and foreign - think China's economic model is unworkable.
Real Clear Markets | A Shale Gas Boom In Its Infancy Signals Positive Growth
In the summer of 2013, Liberty - a combined cycle power plant in Pennsylvania- placed an order with Siemens Energy for a delivery of two power blocks. The order, which has a total value of approximately $400 million, includes two H-class gas turbines, two steam turbines, two generators and two heat recovery steam generators, as well as electrical equipment and control systems.
AEI | Stop blaming 'market failure'
Even as the American economy continues to struggle in the Great Recession’s aftermath, Americans continue to blame President George W. Bush and the Republicans for causing the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Why Are Colleges Seeing Anemic Tuition Growth?
Anemic net tuition growth is plaguing nearly half of the nation’s colleges, according to a Moody’s Investors Service survey released today. The report spells more hard times ahead for a growing segment of the nation’s schools, which are enduring the first significant and prolonged drop in the number of high school graduates in decades.
The Economist | Economic hazards
The danger for the rest of us from his death, said the BBC’s controversial "That Was the Week" last Saturday, is not that policies will be consciously changed. The danger is rather “that the world liberal movement, which he led, may now become blurred." Nowhere could this risk be greater, because more easily blurrable, than in Mr Johnson‘s unsought surrogate task of world economic leadership.
Library of Economics | GDP: A Bad Measure of Well-Being
Picture this: The U.S. government finally sells the Postal Service. As with other functions moved from the government to the private sector, the privatized post office does what the government did for about half the cost. So, with prices correspondingly lower, people spend roughly half as much as before on mail--which frees them to spend the difference on other desirable things.
WSJ | World Trade Volume up in Third Quarter
The volume of world trade rose in September and in the third quarter, a sign that the global economy is picking up.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Companies Expect More to Opt Into Employer-Provided Insurance
Businesses expect over the next year to increase workers' premium contributions, hike the cost of covering family members, and shift them to high-deductible health plans, The Wall Street Journal reports.
WSJ | Companies Prepare to Pass More Health Costs to Workers
Companies are bracing for an influx of participants in their insurance plans due to the health-care overhaul, adding to pressure to shift more of the cost of coverage to employees.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | Health care accountability
When the going gets tough, politicians usually get going, looking for the tall grass. Only Democrats voted for Obamacare, and now millions of Americans are coming to grips with the consequences. The millions must find a replacement insurance policy they can afford.
National Journal | Does the IRS Have the Muscle to Enforce Obamacare?
The Internal Revenue Service role in implementing and enforcing Obamacare is the biggest increase in the agency's responsibilities in decades, The Washington Post reports.
Mercatus | No Grounds for Claim That Affordable Care Act Lowers Health care Costs
Public support for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has plummeted now that the oft-repeated claim that “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it” is widely understood to be untrue. Despite previous assurances, millions of Americans are now grappling with ACA-triggered cancellations of their health insurance policies. 

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | ‘We don’t need to start over’ on Obamacare: No. 2 House Democrat Hoyer
The No. 2 House Democrat says there’s no need to “start over” on President Barack Obama’s troubled health-care law despite problems with its rollout.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Cash Is Dead. Are Credit Cards Next?
It looks like a credit card. It's the size of a credit card. It swipes in credit card machines. But it holds the information of up to eight of your debit, credit, rewards, or gift cards. And you can switch between cards by simply pressing a button.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Bloomberg | Taper Isn’t Tightening as Bonds See No Rate Boost Until ’15
The $11.7 trillion Treasury market is betting on history not repeating as the Federal Reserve moves closer to reducing its unprecedented stimulus.
WSJ | Regulators, Divided Over 'Volcker Rule,' Weigh Going It Alone
Bank regulators are considering passing the 'Volcker rule' without the blessing of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has been pushing for 11th-hour changes ahead of a year-end deadline to finalize the regulation, according to people familiar with the process.

Taxes

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Highest property taxes in America
If you don't want to grind your teeth at night over your property tax bill, steer clear of Manhattan's New York suburbs and those in northern New Jersey.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
CNBC | Employment slips for MBA grads: Poll
Fewer business school graduates report landing jobs this year, and it appears that employers are continuing to scale back bonuses and other incentives.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Mercatus | Government-Financed Employment and the Real Private Sector in the 50 States
In 2012, public-sector employment made up more than 16 percent of the US labor market. Direct government employment fails to capture the full impact of government spending on state labor markets.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Most States See Jobless Rate Fall, Even Amid Big Jump in DC
The unemployment rate fell last month in 28 states despite the national figure increasing for the first time since May, the Labor Department said Friday. Missouri and South Carolina registered the largest monthly decline in rates, each down 0.4 percentage point.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | House GOP Prepares Fallback Plan for Budget Deadlines
As the budget conference committee continues to work toward an agreement that would set spending levels for the remainder of this fiscal year and fiscal 2015, House Republicans are contemplating a fallback plan: a short-term continuing resolution that would fund the government through April 15 and buy budget negotiators more time to strike a long-term deal.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
CATO | Congress Should Stand Firm on Spending Caps
Rumors abound that budget negotiators are nearing a possible deal to reverse spending cuts required under the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA).

Thursday, November 21, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Philadelphia Fed index slows to 6.5 in November
The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index slowed to a reading of 6.5 in November from 19.8 in October. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a reading of 14.5.
Bloomberg | Euro-Area Factory Production Accelerates as China Cools
Euro-area manufacturing expanded for a fifth month in November, as Germany continued to drive the 17-nation currency bloc’s gradual recovery from a record-long recession.
Market Watch | U.S. Markit flash PMI rebounds in November
Markit's U.S. index of manufacturing purchasing managers rose to 54.3 in a preliminary November reading, an eight-month high, from a final reading of 51.8 in October, according to data released Thursday.
Bloomberg | Americans Recover Home Equity at Record Pace: Mortgages
The number of Americans who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth fell at the fastest pace on record in the third quarter as prices rose, a sign supply shortages may ease as more owners are able to sell.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Politico | Farm bill talks intensify
Farm bill talks intensified Wednesday night even as a new report showed that food stamp expenditures are already beginning to fall as a share of the economy — a downward decline that’s expected to accelerate over the next five years.
WSJ | Worse Than ObamaCare
No question, it's tough on Barack Obama. But what about the rest of us? For many Americans, the Obama leadership meltdown began five years ago.
Forbes | Why Most Rich 1 Percenters Would Give Anything To Be Among The 99%
If the Democrats are not (electorally) washed away by a tsunami of voter outrage over Obamacare, they will no doubt seek to make “growing inequality” the principal issue in the 2014 elections.  So, let’s apply a little unconventional logic to the subject of inequality.
Politico | Why We Need Fannie and Freddie
With their recent earnings announcements, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have now repaid all but about $4 billion of the $189 federal bailout that kept the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) afloat after the financial meltdown five years ago.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Library of Economics | European Union, which steps forward?
An almost invariable mantra of European politics is that Europe needs "an ever closer Union". Political centralization is commonly considered the only way out of the crisis - meaning, first of all, centralization of fiscal policies, as an all-powerful Brussels should be able to (a) put order in the balance sheets of profligate member states (the stick) and (b) put an end to the tax competition that endangers fiscal revenues of high taxed member states (the carrot).
Café Hayek | Pseudo-Economics
People who have no exposure to the economic way of thinking typically think that they understand sufficiently the logic of markets to comment critically upon real-world market processes.  As frustrating as this reality is – with its incessant outpouring of wrongheaded diagnoses and demands for this or that government intervention – it’s a reality that ain’t gonna go away.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | The House GOP’s Obamacare playbook
The House Republican leadership is coordinating an aggressive push to keep Obamacare’s problems front and center both on Capitol Hill and around the country.
National Journal | Global Spending On Medicines to Exceed One Trillion Dollars in 2014
Total global spending on medicines will exceed one trillion U.S. dollars in 2014, reaching almost $1.2 trillion in 2017, according to a new report.
CNN Money | How 'affordable' are Obamacare plans?
Many Americans browsing the Obamacare exchanges are finding the Affordable Care Act isn't living up to its name.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Fortune | New Obamacare confusion: Can you keep your policy? Maybe.
Last week, President Barack Obama said he would allow insurers to extend for another year health insurance plans that they canceled because the policies don't meet Affordable Care Act standards.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Wholesale Prices in U.S. Fell in October for a Second Month
The 0.2 percent drop in the producer-price index followed a 0.1 percent decline the prior month, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The decrease matched the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 75 economists.
Bloomberg | Fed QE Taper Likely in Coming Months on Data, Minutes Say
Federal Reserve officials signaled they may taper their $85 billion in monthly bond buying “in coming months” if the economy improves as anticipated.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Bloomberg | Fed Is Shooting at a Moving Target
Tinkering around the edges. That’s how it strikes me, all this talk about adjusting thresholds and offering more and better forward guidance.

Taxes

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Roll Call | Don’t Bet on a Tax Code Rewrite Happening Anytime Soon
In the current congressional climate, it’s wiser to assume something won’t happen than it is to assume it will — even when it’s the chairman of an important committee proposing a sweeping policy rewrite.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Unemployment Insurance for 1.3 Million Will End at Christmas Unless Congress Acts
Republicans in budget negotiations have said repeatedly that the Dec. 13 deadline to get a deal could pass without consequence. But Democrats warn that a real budgetary cliff does loom: Emergency unemployment insurance will expire by year’s end.
CNN Money | 'Manly' jobs aren't coming back
After losing more than 6 million jobs, men have gained only about 70% of them back, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Bloomberg | Claims for U.S. Jobless Benefits Fall More Than Forecast
Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. declined to the lowest level in almost two months, showing further healing in the labor market.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Investors | Real Jobless Rate 11.8% Excluding Labor Force Exodus
Census employees "faked" employment survey data, possibly accounting for an unemployment drop just before the 2012 election, claims the New York Post.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Debt ceiling deadline pushed back
Though Congress agreed in October to hike the nation’s borrowing authority through Feb. 7, the Treasury Department’s use of extraordinary measures will likely give lawmakers an additional month to haggle over a deal to raise the debt ceiling above $17.1 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Heritage Foundation | Cutting the U.S. Budget Would Help the Economy Grow
Members of the Senate and the House of Representatives have convened the first budget conference in four years. With the deadline of December 13 for the conference report, lawmakers have little time to agree on a budget plan for fiscal year 2014 and beyond, and yet so much depends on their succeeding.
CBO | Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, November 2013
The debt limit—commonly referred to as the debt ceiling—is the maximum amount of debt that the Department of the Treasury can issue to the public and to other federal agencies.
CATO | Will Paul Ryan and GOP Budget Negotiators Snatch Defeat from Jaws of Victory?
There’s a joke in Washington that Democrats are the evil party and Republicans are the stupid party. Except this joke isn’t very funny since a lot of bad policy occurs when gullible GOPers get lured into “bipartisan” deals that expand government.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | The Truth About Spending Cuts and the Economy
Liberal economists like Paul Krugman might be calling for more government spending to help our ailing economy, but federal spending cuts are the better bet for long-term economic growth according to a new study released today by The Heritage Foundation’s Romina Boccia.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | JPMorgan can deduct big chunk of $13 billion deal
The majority of the $13 billion settlement JPMorgan struck with the government Tuesday is likely to be tax deductible, reducing the bank's financial hit.
Bloomberg | Retail Sales in U.S. Increased More Than Forecast in October
Retail sales in the U.S. rose more than forecast in October, a sign that consumer spending was resilient even during the government shutdown.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | Forget party loyalties, let’s save America
When I was a teenager, we loved to play baseball, and in my neighborhood there were two teams. Both of them were quite good, but they were bitter rivals. It was not uncommon for fights to break out when they played each other.
Forbes | Americans Are Living Better Then They Have At Any Point In Human History
Hans Riegel recently died at age 90.  He was not a household name, even in his home country of Germany.  But he changed the world for the better.  He brought us gummi bears.
Real Clear Markets | The FHA Is a Predatory Lender
According to the FDIC's Inspector General: "Predatory lending typically involves imposing unfair and abusive loan terms on borrowers, often through aggressive sales tactics; taking advantage of borrowers' lack of understanding of complicated transactions; and outright deception."
Mercatus | Regulating Automobiles: The Consequences for Consumers
A popular argument for regulation holds that leaving consumers and manufacturers to their own devices would lead to undesirable outcomes.
NBER | Wait-and-See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty
This paper develops a model of investment decisions in which uncertainty about a one-time change in tax policy induces the firm to temporarily stop investing—to adopt a wait-and-see policy. After the uncertainty is resolved, the firm exploits the tabled projects, generating a temporary investment boom.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Fortune | What Obama's crashing poll numbers really mean
For five years, the American people have given the President the benefit of the doubt on the economy. But the bungled launch of Obamacare has burst the goodwill bubble. He may not get a do-over.
Library of Economics | The Economic Illiteracy of High School History
In 11th grade, I took Advanced Placement U.S. History.  I enjoyed it at the time.  Once I started studying economics, however, I was outraged by the economic illiteracy of my history textbooks. 
Coordination Problem | The Daunting Problem of Economic Reform
Last week Paul Krugman told the world about a plot against France, as Standard and Poor’s downgraded the country’s bond rating to AA+. Bearing in mind that the public debt of most major Western countries will never be repaid, what agencies look at is the extent to which countries can service their debt.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Consumers Will Soon Be Able to Skip Obamacare Website
Insurance companies have always been able to enroll Americans in Affordable Care Act exchange coverage, but people who qualified for premium assistance had to complete their applications and receive an eligibility notice through HealthCare.gov.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | How the GOP Should Fix ObamaCare
The problem is simply stated. Millions will be losing their individual insurance policies that they were promised they could keep. They will be expected to buy more expensive ObamaCare-approved policies than they want or need, and to do so from ObamaCare exchanges that aren't working.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Obamacare Exchanges Have Reduced Insurance Competition Nationally
A recent Heritage analysis found significantly less insurer competition in the Obamacare exchanges relative to the prior individual health insurance market.
Neighborhood Effects | Why Mandating Higher Quality is Regressive
Lately, a lot of attention has been given to the fact that millions of Americans are seeing their health insurance plans cancelled as a result of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare). Some pundits have gone so far as to argue this is a good thing.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Bernanke Signals Fed Target Rate to Stay Low After QE
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the Fed will probably hold down its target interest rate long after ending $85 billion in monthly bond buying, and possibly after unemployment falls below 6.5 percent.
National Journal | Bernanke: 'Significant Progress' on Openness
One of Ben Bernanke's goals when he became chairman of the Federal Reserve was to make the historically secretive central bank more transparent. The hope was that the economy would reap the benefits.
Bloomberg | Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline for First Time in Six Months
The cost of living in the U.S. declined in October for the first time in six months, showing inflation remains below the Federal Reserve’s goal.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Bloomberg | Evans Says Bond Buying May Total More Than $1.5 Trillion
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans, a voter on policy this year, said the Fed may buy a total of $1.5 trillion in bonds in a program that started in January 2013 to ensure steady employment gains.

Taxes

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Politico | Max Baucus starts tax debate with draft proposals
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus on Tuesday issued long-awaited proposals to revamp how multinational companies are taxed on foreign profits, igniting a fiery debate with Republicans and the corporations that could be losers under a changed system.
WSJ | U.S. Companies Split on Tax Plan
A Senate committee chairman's proposal to overhaul the U.S. corporate-tax system, released Tuesday, exposed fault lines among big businesses and showed the challenge he faces in building a coalition to support the concept.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Fired Wal-Mart workers could get jobs back
Wal-Mart workers who were allegedly fired for protesting for better pay could soon get their jobs back.
Bloomberg | Census Sees No ‘Systemic Manipulation’ of U.S. Jobs Data
There is no sign U.S. jobs statistics have been compromised by broad-based employee fabrication of data, according to the Census Bureau.
CNN Money | House panel to investigate unemployment data
Did Census Bureau employees fabricate data used in calculating the nation's unemployment rate? A House panel, led by Republicans, has opened an investigation.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Hiring Remains Tepid Even as Faith in U.S. Economy Grows
As the economy continues to slog through a slow recovery, executives at companies involved in everything from chemicals to telecommunications say they're starting to become more optimistic about growth but remain cautious about hiring.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | Hope grows for budget deal
They’ve been written off as a doomed-to-fail duo: Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Patty Murray, the congressional budget leaders who are on an uphill quest to reach any kind of fiscal deal.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Investors | Obama's Debt Buildup Risks A Major Fiscal Catastrophe
Fiscal Fraud: The government issued an astounding $1 trillion in new debt during the first six weeks of the fiscal year. How could such a thing happen with nary a peep? Just like ObamaCare, it's more government deceit.
WSJ | Lew Says Lawmakers Should Consider Debt-Limit 'Reform'
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on Tuesday said policy makers should consider a "reform" of the government's longstanding borrowing limit, saying it could help to prevent future fiscal clashes that he said harm economic growth.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | OECD cuts world growth forecast
Another month, another downgrade for the world economy, this time from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Bloomberg | German Investor Confidence Rises for a Fourth Month
German investor confidence rose to the highest level in more than four years, signaling that the economic recovery in Europe’s largest economy remains on track even after a third-quarter slowdown.
CNN Money | U.S., JPMorgan near $13 billion settlement
The Justice Department and JPMorgan Chase are nearing completion of a $13 billion settlement related to the bank's past mortgage practices, and a final deal is expected as soon as Tuesday, according to a person briefed on the negotiations.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Fortune | Welcome to the 4% return market
The stock market probably isn't in a bubble, but there's a bigger risk you need to consider: That buying now will mean much lower returns over the next few years.
Real Clear Markets | Will Congress Finally Kill Ethanol and Wind Energy?
The Environmental Protection Agency finally saw sense on Friday and announced a reduction in the amount of ethanol that refiners are required to blend into gasoline in 2014. Will Congress show equal sense and allow the wind tax credit to expire at the end of 2013?
Washington Times | Fracturing Obama’s oil spin
With the debris of his health care scheme falling like autumn leaves, President Obama is looking for news, any news, to suggest that his White House is doing something, anything, right. He landed on the most unlikely candidate last week. He’s taking credit for the surge in the production of oil, which exceeded imports for the first time in 18 years.
CRS | Infrastructure Banks and Debt Finance to Support Surface Transportation Investment
This report discusses current federal programs that support the use of debt finance and private investment to build and rebuild highways and public transportation. It also considers legislative options intended to encourage greater infrastructure financing in the future.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Which U.S. Cities Have Economies Bigger Than Entire Countries?
U.S. cities experienced slowing growth last year, according a report from the Conference of Mayors, but many of them still have bigger economies than entire countries.
WSJ | More Seniors Living With Their Children, but Don’t Blame Recession
More seniors are living with their children these days, but don’t blame the slow U.S. economy. Blame demographics.
Café Hayek | Inequality in two graphs
I have written many times that the subsidies to Wall Street and its employees have distorted economic outcomes for a handful of folks relative to the rest of us. So I want to start by pointing out that there is at least one source of inequality that is destructive to democracy and capitalism.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | More Early Warning Signs of Obamacare Site Issues
Another document released by House investigators shows early warning signs of HealthCare.gov's readiness in jeopardy.
CNN Money | Missing from Obamacare: Working & middle class
Obamacare is intended to make health care affordable for the masses. But so far, most of those who have signed up are paying full price.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | No Bailouts for ObamaCare
With every passing day, ObamaCare's flaws are being exposed in painful ways for the American people. What started as a broken website—and nonexistent Spanish one—is now snowballing into a full-scale disaster that makes it increasingly clear this law can't be fixed.
FOX Business | The Unaffordable Care Act
President Barack Obama has said this:“This is the most transparent Administration in history.” The health-care law “does not grow the deficit by a single dime.”

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Yellen Nomination for Fed Chairman to Get Vote This Week
Janet Yellen’s nomination to be chairman of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for a Senate Banking Committee vote this week, advancing her confirmation.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Fed Official Says Big Banks Need Higher Capital Levels
Very large banks that count broker-dealer operations as an important part of their business need to hold higher levels of capital to reduce the risk these firms pose to the broader financial system, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said Monday.
Washington Post | Banks aren’t the bad guys
Economic historians debate the causes of the Great Depression — from the gold standard to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act — but few assign much blame to criminal fraud.
Washington Times | The failed Fed
“I wouldn’t start here if I were you,” is the punch line of an old Irish joke, which monetary scholar Kevin Dowd cites to illustrate the deeper and deeper hole the Federal Reserve is getting us into.
Real Clear Markets | A New Chapter Begins In 'Too Big To Fail'
On November 14, 2013 Moody's Investors Services made an important announcement. They reviewed their credit ratings assessments on the eight largest US banks and "removed all uplift from US government support in the ratings for bank holding company debt." This marks the beginning of a new chapter in the too big to fail issue.
CATO | Europe’s Bank Money Blues
Well, it’s official, the economic talking head establishment has declared war on Germany. The opening shots in this battle were fired by none other than the United States Treasury Department, which had the audacity to blame Germany for a weak Eurozone recovery in its semi-annual foreign exchange report.
Heritage Foundation | Yellen Hearing Exposes Fed’s Regulatory Fault Lines
Janet Yellen, President Obama’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, told the Senate Banking Committee on November 14 that she is prepared to exercise a full range of regulatory “tools” to alter the actions of major financial institutions.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | Fed’s Plosser Objects to Open Ended Asset Purchases
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser on Monday said the central bank should set a fixed amount for its bond-buying program, rather than trying to fine tune asset purchases based on month-to-month variations in the economy.

Taxes

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | Tax Increases Really Hurt Growth and Jobs
Some lawmakers, led by Senate Budget Committee chair Patty Murray (D–WA), are seeking to raise taxes in the budget conference to replace the modest spending reductions referred to as sequestration. They say that spending cuts hurt growth and jobs.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
FOX Business | U.S. Labor Costs Point To Still-Benign Inflation
U.S. labor costs rose marginally in the third quarter, pointing to tame wage inflation that should allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its bond-buying program to stimulate the economy.
CNN Money | Tech firms now hiring more women than men
A curious thing has happened in the tech world. In an industry that has long been considered a boys club, suddenly firms are hiring more women than men.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | Latin Migrants Shift Sights From U.S. to Neighbors
It sounds like the typical American dream for an immigrant: Each month, Marco Antonio Serna sends $500 to his parents, wife and 17-year-old daughter back in Colombia. Except Mr. Serna, 43 years old, didn't migrate to the U.S. for work; he went to Chile, where he is employed at a small casino outside Santiago.
NY Post | Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report
Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.
NBER | Enforcement and Immigrant Location Choice
This paper investigates the effect of local immigration enforcement regimes on the migration decisions of the foreign born.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Library of Economics | Bartender, Cashier, Cook, Janitor, Security Guard, Waiter
The human capital and signaling stories can both explain the existence of malemployment.  But malemployment research still provides some of the most compelling evidence in favor of the signaling model.