News
Market Watch | U.S. Treasury urges Greece, Europe to find 'constructive way forward'
The U.S. Treasury again Thursday urged Greece and its international creditors to find a constructive way to extend its bailout package. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and his team have held regular talks with all the parties, including German officials, a senior U.S. Treasury official said.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | White House Sees Workforce as Best Bet to Tackle Deficits
Rather than seek to balance the budget and sharply reduce the debt, President Barack Obama ’s economic advisers now say the focus should be to stabilize the debt through the aging of the baby boomers, or those born roughly between 1946 and 1964.
The Telegraph | Don’t panic: The sky won’t fall in if Greece decides to leave the euro
Slowly but surely, we are moving to a denouement in this latest incarnation of the eurozone crisis. Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen – but there is a greater chance than ever before that Greece will eventually quit the eurozone and default on its debts. Greeks and Germans are refusing to move back from the brink, which means that a complete breakdown now looks eerily possible.
Wall Street Journal | Economy’s Supply Side Sputters
For most of the past six years, the U.S. economy faced a demand problem as tight credit, economic pessimism and a fixation on reducing debt discouraged consumers, businesses and government from spending.
Wall Street Journal | U.S. Lawmakers Press Japan’s Abe on Free Trade
A visiting U.S. congressional delegation on Thursday pressed Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for a bold market opening amid growing expectations that an agreement can be reached for creating a free-trade area across the Pacific.
CNBC | Why oil is the 'canary in the coal mine': Analyst
Since economies drive commodity prices, not the other way around, the collapse in oil is more of a demand issue than it appears, said Stephen Schork, founder and editor of The Schork Report newsletter.
Friday, February 20, 2015
Health Care
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | Millions of Americans in danger of losing key Obamacare tax subsidy
On March 4 the U.S. Supreme Court will hear King v. Burwell, the case challenging health insurance-premium subsidies for those who buy their insurance on the 37 federal exchanges.
Market Watch | Millions of Americans in danger of losing key Obamacare tax subsidy
On March 4 the U.S. Supreme Court will hear King v. Burwell, the case challenging health insurance-premium subsidies for those who buy their insurance on the 37 federal exchanges.
Taxes
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | The U.S. government’s stupid tax war on expatriates
The U.S. government’s stupid, hateful and dishonest war on Americans living abroad claimed its latest scalp this week.
Market Watch | Business group sees narrow window for tax deal
Time is short for a deal on tax reform in Washington, an official with an association of chief executives from top U.S. companies said Thursday.
Market Watch | The U.S. government’s stupid tax war on expatriates
The U.S. government’s stupid, hateful and dishonest war on Americans living abroad claimed its latest scalp this week.
Market Watch | Business group sees narrow window for tax deal
Time is short for a deal on tax reform in Washington, an official with an association of chief executives from top U.S. companies said Thursday.
Employment
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | The Wal-Mart pay rise may not even show up in jobs report
The country’s largest private-sector employer is lifting wages for 500,000 employees. But it still may not show up in the nation’s economic reports.
TIME | This Chart Shows What Walmart’s Pay Raises Mean for the Minimum Wage
In a move set to reignite the debate over increasing the federal minimum wage, Walmart said Thursday it’s giving half a million of its employees a raise.
Forbes | If We Knew Why WalMart Raised Wages Then We Could Decide Upon The Minimum Wage
Yesterday Walmart rather shocked everyone by announcing that wages would rise to a minimum of $9 an hour this year and to $10 an hour for those who have finished their training next. This will mean pay raises for 500,000 of their staff and will cost the company, in the first round of effects, some $1 billion. What we’d really like to know though is precisely why Walmart did this. For if we knew the answer to that then we could make up our minds on the closely related point of the minimum wage. One possible reason for this wage rise means we are left just as we are on the minimum wage. The other major serious reason means that we can leave the minimum wage pretty much alone: or, another way of looking at the same point, it won’t matter very much if we do raise it.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | What Wal-Mart’s Pay Raise May Mean For Other Workers
The pledge by the nation’s largest private employer to hand raises to 500,000 workers amps up pressure on other low-wage employers that are already seeing labor costs climb in a tightening labor market.
Market Watch | The Wal-Mart pay rise may not even show up in jobs report
The country’s largest private-sector employer is lifting wages for 500,000 employees. But it still may not show up in the nation’s economic reports.
TIME | This Chart Shows What Walmart’s Pay Raises Mean for the Minimum Wage
In a move set to reignite the debate over increasing the federal minimum wage, Walmart said Thursday it’s giving half a million of its employees a raise.
Forbes | If We Knew Why WalMart Raised Wages Then We Could Decide Upon The Minimum Wage
Yesterday Walmart rather shocked everyone by announcing that wages would rise to a minimum of $9 an hour this year and to $10 an hour for those who have finished their training next. This will mean pay raises for 500,000 of their staff and will cost the company, in the first round of effects, some $1 billion. What we’d really like to know though is precisely why Walmart did this. For if we knew the answer to that then we could make up our minds on the closely related point of the minimum wage. One possible reason for this wage rise means we are left just as we are on the minimum wage. The other major serious reason means that we can leave the minimum wage pretty much alone: or, another way of looking at the same point, it won’t matter very much if we do raise it.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | What Wal-Mart’s Pay Raise May Mean For Other Workers
The pledge by the nation’s largest private employer to hand raises to 500,000 workers amps up pressure on other low-wage employers that are already seeing labor costs climb in a tightening labor market.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
General Economics
News
Market Watch | U.S. jobless claims fall 21,000 to 283,000
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits sank by 21,000 to 283,000 in the seven days from Feb. 8 to Feb. 14, signaling that layoffs remain low and the pace of the hiring in the U.S. is still strong.
Market Watch | Germany rejects Greece's loan-extension proposal
Germany has rejected Greece's request for a six-month loan-extension agreement, saying the letter is not a "a substantial proposal" for a solution.". The Greek government earlier on Thursday submitted its loan proposal, but made clear it wouldn't accept all the strict austerity measures required under the current bailout program.
Econ Comments & Analysis
White House - Council of Economic Advisers | The 2015 Economic Report of the President
This morning, the Council of Economic Advisers released the 69th-annual Economic Report of the President, which reviews the United States’ accelerating recovery and ways to further support middle-class families as the recovery continues.
New York Times | Inequality Has Actually Not Risen Since the Financial Crisis
The notion that income inequality has continued to rise over the past decade is part of the conventional wisdom. You’ve no doubt heard versions: The rich just keep getting richer. Inequality is higher than ever. Nearly all of the gains from the economic recovery have gone to the top 1 percent.
Reason | No Gatekeepers
For years, people assumed encyclopedias had to be created by professionals. Then Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales attempted to create an encyclopedia without central planners.
Market Watch | U.S. jobless claims fall 21,000 to 283,000
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits sank by 21,000 to 283,000 in the seven days from Feb. 8 to Feb. 14, signaling that layoffs remain low and the pace of the hiring in the U.S. is still strong.
Market Watch | Germany rejects Greece's loan-extension proposal
Germany has rejected Greece's request for a six-month loan-extension agreement, saying the letter is not a "a substantial proposal" for a solution.". The Greek government earlier on Thursday submitted its loan proposal, but made clear it wouldn't accept all the strict austerity measures required under the current bailout program.
Econ Comments & Analysis
White House - Council of Economic Advisers | The 2015 Economic Report of the President
This morning, the Council of Economic Advisers released the 69th-annual Economic Report of the President, which reviews the United States’ accelerating recovery and ways to further support middle-class families as the recovery continues.
New York Times | Inequality Has Actually Not Risen Since the Financial Crisis
The notion that income inequality has continued to rise over the past decade is part of the conventional wisdom. You’ve no doubt heard versions: The rich just keep getting richer. Inequality is higher than ever. Nearly all of the gains from the economic recovery have gone to the top 1 percent.
Reason | No Gatekeepers
For years, people assumed encyclopedias had to be created by professionals. Then Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales attempted to create an encyclopedia without central planners.
Health Care
Econ Comments & Analysis
Urban Institute | Health Care Spending by Those Becoming Uninsured if the Supreme Court Finds for the Plaintiff in King v. Burwell Would Fall by at Least 35 Percent
If King v. Burwell is decided in favor of the plaintiff, additional coverage resulting from the ACA’s premium tax credits would be reversed, and some of those purchasing nongroup insurance fully with their own funds would become uninsured due to large increases in premiums.
Investors.com | 11.4 Million ObamaCare Signups Is No Big Deal - Just Ask Obama
The Obama Administration says more than 11 million signed up for ObamaCare this year. Should anyone believe this number?
Forbes | Should Employers Be Required To Provide Health Insurance To Their Employees?
The Obamacare mandate for large employers kicks in this year and for smaller employers it kicks in next year. But an increasing number of economists – both on the right and the left — are saying that mandated health insurance benefits at the work place are a bad idea. Are they right?
Urban Institute | Health Care Spending by Those Becoming Uninsured if the Supreme Court Finds for the Plaintiff in King v. Burwell Would Fall by at Least 35 Percent
If King v. Burwell is decided in favor of the plaintiff, additional coverage resulting from the ACA’s premium tax credits would be reversed, and some of those purchasing nongroup insurance fully with their own funds would become uninsured due to large increases in premiums.
Investors.com | 11.4 Million ObamaCare Signups Is No Big Deal - Just Ask Obama
The Obama Administration says more than 11 million signed up for ObamaCare this year. Should anyone believe this number?
Forbes | Should Employers Be Required To Provide Health Insurance To Their Employees?
The Obamacare mandate for large employers kicks in this year and for smaller employers it kicks in next year. But an increasing number of economists – both on the right and the left — are saying that mandated health insurance benefits at the work place are a bad idea. Are they right?
Monetary
Econ Comments & Analysis
Bloomberg | Did the Fed Just Enter the Currency Wars?
Policy makers pointed to the dollar’s rising value as “a persistent source of restraint” on exports in a surprisingly dovish set of minutes published Wednesday. The greenback fell against a broad group of its peers.
Real Clear Markets | Negative Rates: A New Economic Mystery
To the long list of economic mysteries can now be added interest rates. They've been at rock bottom, as everyone knows. But now we've encountered something novel: negative interest rates. Lenders are actually paying for the privilege of allowing someone to borrow their money. It's occurring outside the United States, and the Federal Reserve's next move is expected to be raising rates. Still, there's no ironclad reason it couldn't happen here.
Market Watch | Fed majority rejects near-term interest-rate hike
“Many” said a premature rate hike would harm the recovery, while only “several” thought a later move would risk high inflation, according to the minutes of the Jan. 27-28 meeting.
Forbes | Even The Fed Can't Decide What 'Data Dependent' Really Means
The Federal Reserve released its official account of the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting Wednesday. The minutes show considerable debate about the timing of interest rate hikes with members highlighting the dangers of raising interest rates too soon as well as the dangers of hiking too late.
Bloomberg | Did the Fed Just Enter the Currency Wars?
Policy makers pointed to the dollar’s rising value as “a persistent source of restraint” on exports in a surprisingly dovish set of minutes published Wednesday. The greenback fell against a broad group of its peers.
Real Clear Markets | Negative Rates: A New Economic Mystery
To the long list of economic mysteries can now be added interest rates. They've been at rock bottom, as everyone knows. But now we've encountered something novel: negative interest rates. Lenders are actually paying for the privilege of allowing someone to borrow their money. It's occurring outside the United States, and the Federal Reserve's next move is expected to be raising rates. Still, there's no ironclad reason it couldn't happen here.
Market Watch | Fed majority rejects near-term interest-rate hike
“Many” said a premature rate hike would harm the recovery, while only “several” thought a later move would risk high inflation, according to the minutes of the Jan. 27-28 meeting.
Forbes | Even The Fed Can't Decide What 'Data Dependent' Really Means
The Federal Reserve released its official account of the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting Wednesday. The minutes show considerable debate about the timing of interest rate hikes with members highlighting the dangers of raising interest rates too soon as well as the dangers of hiking too late.
Employment
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | Breaking down who earns the minimum wage
It’s an item that President Barack Obama has been pushing for, and what Wal-Mart Stores has just helped move along — the lifting of the minimum raise.
USA Today | Retirement: Boomers want to keep working - if they can
George Fraser has had a hugely successful life. At 70, the former corporate executive is a successful author and speaker, traveling 200 days out of the year and logging 250,000 air miles. And he has absolutely no intention of retiring.
Forbes | Sorry, But San Francisco Does Not Prove It's Safe To Raise The Minimum Wage
It has been claimed that the strong job growth in San Francisco is evidence that raising the minimum wage does not hurt employment. San Francisco has long had a higher minimum wage than the federal one, with inflation indexing to keep it rising, and San Francisco’s job market seems quite healthy.
Forbes | More Than One In 10 American Workers Unemployed Or Underemployed
There has been much discussion about the unemployment rate and its accuracy. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.7% from double-digit highs during the Great Recession. But Gallup’s CEO called the unemployment rate a big lie, estimating that as many as 30 million Americans are out of work or underemployed.
Market Watch | Breaking down who earns the minimum wage
It’s an item that President Barack Obama has been pushing for, and what Wal-Mart Stores has just helped move along — the lifting of the minimum raise.
USA Today | Retirement: Boomers want to keep working - if they can
George Fraser has had a hugely successful life. At 70, the former corporate executive is a successful author and speaker, traveling 200 days out of the year and logging 250,000 air miles. And he has absolutely no intention of retiring.
Forbes | Sorry, But San Francisco Does Not Prove It's Safe To Raise The Minimum Wage
It has been claimed that the strong job growth in San Francisco is evidence that raising the minimum wage does not hurt employment. San Francisco has long had a higher minimum wage than the federal one, with inflation indexing to keep it rising, and San Francisco’s job market seems quite healthy.
Forbes | More Than One In 10 American Workers Unemployed Or Underemployed
There has been much discussion about the unemployment rate and its accuracy. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.7% from double-digit highs during the Great Recession. But Gallup’s CEO called the unemployment rate a big lie, estimating that as many as 30 million Americans are out of work or underemployed.
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
General Economics
News
Market Watch | U.S. housing starts dip in January to 1.07 million annual rate
Construction on new U.S. homes dropped 2% in January to an annual rate of 1.07 million units, as heavy snowfall hindered builders in some regions such as the Midwest and Northeast. Permits also declined slightly but indicated that the pace of construction is likely to remain at or near current levels heading into the spring, according to Commerce Department data issued Wednesday.
Market Watch | U.S. producer prices tumble 0.8% in January on lower energy costs
U.S. wholesale prices posted a record 0.8% decline in January after an unprecedented drop in energy costs, the Labor Department said Wednesday.
Market Watch | Industrial production rises 0.2% in January
Industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in January, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.
Wall Street Journal | Americans Borrowing More, but Fissures Appear
Americans are for the most part taking on new loans carefully, yet a rise in late payments on two fast-growing types of debt—auto and student loans—suggest some consumers could be getting in over their heads.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Bloomberg | Greece Seeks Concessions in Later Loan Extension Request
Greece will submit its request for a six-month loan extension to the euro-area Thursday, a day later than originally planned, according to a government official.
Real Clear Markets | The U.S. Economic Recovery Still Has a Lot of Upside
Are we nearing full employment and will the Fed soon be tightening policy? The government's latest employment report was the best in many years. Payroll employment rose by over a million during the past three months, with strong job gains in the preliminary data for January and large upward revisions in the previous estimates for November and December. Based on this surge in labor input, it is a good bet that the preliminary estimate of the fourth quarter's GDP will be revised upward as well.
Economics 21 | Falling Oil Prices Yield a Barrel of Nonsense
Wait until next month, economists said. That's when consumers will spend their bonus savings from lower gas prices.
Market Watch | Why the U.S. will have to bail out Greece
Fighting has flared up again in the Ukraine. The Egyptians are sending soldiers into Libya as another North African state collapses into chaos. The militants of Islamic State are spreading their influence across the region. You’d think Barack Obama might have bigger foreign policy issues to worry about than a small state of 10 million people on the eastern edges of the Mediterranean.
Market Watch | U.S. housing starts dip in January to 1.07 million annual rate
Construction on new U.S. homes dropped 2% in January to an annual rate of 1.07 million units, as heavy snowfall hindered builders in some regions such as the Midwest and Northeast. Permits also declined slightly but indicated that the pace of construction is likely to remain at or near current levels heading into the spring, according to Commerce Department data issued Wednesday.
Market Watch | U.S. producer prices tumble 0.8% in January on lower energy costs
U.S. wholesale prices posted a record 0.8% decline in January after an unprecedented drop in energy costs, the Labor Department said Wednesday.
Market Watch | Industrial production rises 0.2% in January
Industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in January, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.
Wall Street Journal | Americans Borrowing More, but Fissures Appear
Americans are for the most part taking on new loans carefully, yet a rise in late payments on two fast-growing types of debt—auto and student loans—suggest some consumers could be getting in over their heads.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Bloomberg | Greece Seeks Concessions in Later Loan Extension Request
Greece will submit its request for a six-month loan extension to the euro-area Thursday, a day later than originally planned, according to a government official.
Real Clear Markets | The U.S. Economic Recovery Still Has a Lot of Upside
Are we nearing full employment and will the Fed soon be tightening policy? The government's latest employment report was the best in many years. Payroll employment rose by over a million during the past three months, with strong job gains in the preliminary data for January and large upward revisions in the previous estimates for November and December. Based on this surge in labor input, it is a good bet that the preliminary estimate of the fourth quarter's GDP will be revised upward as well.
Economics 21 | Falling Oil Prices Yield a Barrel of Nonsense
Wait until next month, economists said. That's when consumers will spend their bonus savings from lower gas prices.
Market Watch | Why the U.S. will have to bail out Greece
Fighting has flared up again in the Ukraine. The Egyptians are sending soldiers into Libya as another North African state collapses into chaos. The militants of Islamic State are spreading their influence across the region. You’d think Barack Obama might have bigger foreign policy issues to worry about than a small state of 10 million people on the eastern edges of the Mediterranean.
Health Care
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | Contra White House, Obamacare Exchanges Enroll Roughly 5 Million Uninsured, Not 11.4 Million
Last night, the White House tweeted that “about 11.4 million Americans are signed up for private health coverage” through Obamacare’s insurance exchanges. President Obama claims that this figure proves that his health law is working. But once you unravel the spin, what the latest numbers show is that the pace of enrollment in Obamacare’s exchanges has slowed down by more than half. If previous trends hold, Obamacare exchanges have enrolled roughly 5 million previously uninsured individuals: a far cry from 11.4 million.
Forbes | Contra White House, Obamacare Exchanges Enroll Roughly 5 Million Uninsured, Not 11.4 Million
Last night, the White House tweeted that “about 11.4 million Americans are signed up for private health coverage” through Obamacare’s insurance exchanges. President Obama claims that this figure proves that his health law is working. But once you unravel the spin, what the latest numbers show is that the pace of enrollment in Obamacare’s exchanges has slowed down by more than half. If previous trends hold, Obamacare exchanges have enrolled roughly 5 million previously uninsured individuals: a far cry from 11.4 million.
Monetary
Econ Comments & Analysis
CNBC | Is a June rate hike coming? Traders say one thing, economists another
There's a major debate brewing in the financial markets, and it concerns the most important potential event of the year for stocks and bonds alike: the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Forbes | 18 Trillion Reasons Why Interest Rates Will Stay Low
The Federal Reserve has continued to announce its intention to begin raising its interest rates sometime this spring, yet the market remains skeptical. U.S. government 10 year bonds have risen about 40 basis points in the last two weeks, so the bond market might believe the Fed a little. However, 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates are at or near six month lows and seem to be heading lower. That mortgage lenders are willing to lock in low rates for 30 years suggests they don’t believe the Fed will raise rates, or that higher Fed rates will not lead to any particular increase in inflation or their cost of funds for the foreseeable future. Given that the Fed has been as explicit as ever in its history about its intentions, why are the markets so unsure about interest rates rising? There are 18 trillion reasons.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Fed Minutes Will Show How “Patient” Debate is Evolving
Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Jan. 27-28 policy meeting, to be released today, could reveal the contours of its discussion about forward guidance on interest rates.
CNBC | Is a June rate hike coming? Traders say one thing, economists another
There's a major debate brewing in the financial markets, and it concerns the most important potential event of the year for stocks and bonds alike: the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Forbes | 18 Trillion Reasons Why Interest Rates Will Stay Low
The Federal Reserve has continued to announce its intention to begin raising its interest rates sometime this spring, yet the market remains skeptical. U.S. government 10 year bonds have risen about 40 basis points in the last two weeks, so the bond market might believe the Fed a little. However, 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates are at or near six month lows and seem to be heading lower. That mortgage lenders are willing to lock in low rates for 30 years suggests they don’t believe the Fed will raise rates, or that higher Fed rates will not lead to any particular increase in inflation or their cost of funds for the foreseeable future. Given that the Fed has been as explicit as ever in its history about its intentions, why are the markets so unsure about interest rates rising? There are 18 trillion reasons.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Fed Minutes Will Show How “Patient” Debate is Evolving
Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Jan. 27-28 policy meeting, to be released today, could reveal the contours of its discussion about forward guidance on interest rates.
Employment
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | The New York Explanation For A Booming Jobs Market Without Booming Wages
An interesting little point being made here about the New York City jobs market. The city is adding jobs like billy-o but there doesn’t seem to be much movement in average wages.
Kauffman Foundation | State of Entrepreneurship: Mixed Indicators Prompt Call for Entrepreneurial Renewal
Venture capital and angel investing has surged, yet business creation remains slow, and access to capital is difficult for young companies. Despite these and other mixed indicators, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the future of entrepreneurship in the United States, according to the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.
Forbes | The New York Explanation For A Booming Jobs Market Without Booming Wages
An interesting little point being made here about the New York City jobs market. The city is adding jobs like billy-o but there doesn’t seem to be much movement in average wages.
Kauffman Foundation | State of Entrepreneurship: Mixed Indicators Prompt Call for Entrepreneurial Renewal
Venture capital and angel investing has surged, yet business creation remains slow, and access to capital is difficult for young companies. Despite these and other mixed indicators, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the future of entrepreneurship in the United States, according to the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.
Budget
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | Blessing Or Curse? The National Debt From The Founding Fathers To The Age Of Jackson
Libertarians love to talk about how far the United States has strayed from its liberal founding and beginnings. Perhaps nothing better illustrates this point than the national debt, which presently stands at a little more than $18 trillion. Surely, if the Founding Fathers were alive today, they would recoil in horror at how the federal government spends vast sums of money to perform a multitude of extra-constitutional functions.
Blogs
AEIdeas | Is the 2014 farm bill reducing the federal budget deficit? Not exactly
Senator Stabenow (D-Mich) is currently the ranking member of the Senate Agricultural Committee and, in her previous role as chair, was a driving force in passing the 2014 farm bill. On Tuesday of this week, she announced that she would oppose any and all cuts to farm bill and farm subsidy spending during the forthcoming federal budget reconciliation process, essentially arguing that the House and Senate agricultural committees had already given at the office through spending cuts implemented in the 2014 farm bill.
Forbes | Blessing Or Curse? The National Debt From The Founding Fathers To The Age Of Jackson
Libertarians love to talk about how far the United States has strayed from its liberal founding and beginnings. Perhaps nothing better illustrates this point than the national debt, which presently stands at a little more than $18 trillion. Surely, if the Founding Fathers were alive today, they would recoil in horror at how the federal government spends vast sums of money to perform a multitude of extra-constitutional functions.
Blogs
AEIdeas | Is the 2014 farm bill reducing the federal budget deficit? Not exactly
Senator Stabenow (D-Mich) is currently the ranking member of the Senate Agricultural Committee and, in her previous role as chair, was a driving force in passing the 2014 farm bill. On Tuesday of this week, she announced that she would oppose any and all cuts to farm bill and farm subsidy spending during the forthcoming federal budget reconciliation process, essentially arguing that the House and Senate agricultural committees had already given at the office through spending cuts implemented in the 2014 farm bill.
Friday, February 13, 2015
General Economics
News
Market Watch | U.S. import prices sink 2.8% in January on lower oil costs
The prices the U.S. paid for imported goods fell sharply again in January mainly because of much cheaper oil, a trend that's keeping inflation under wraps.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | Economists See Cheap Oil Weighing on Capital Investment
Low oil prices will continue benefiting consumers and the broader U.S. economy this year, but economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are forming a clearer picture of one downside from cheap oil: slower business investment that offsets a slice of the economic gains.
Forbes | This Economy Is Yearning For The Policy Mix
The economy appears to be improving, at long last seven years into the recovery from the Great Recession. Jobs are being added at the Ronald Reagan-era average, even if the population is a quarter larger than in the 1980s. Job openings are cracking above the pre-Great Recession level. And the doughty old blunderbuss statistic, Gross Domestic Product, is inching ever closer to 3 percent.
Real Clear Markets | Modern Economics Is Based On Desperate Misconceptions
I think the Wall Street Journal said it best, with the headline of its article on the latest G-20 conclave shouting, "Currency Warriors Get a Boost at G-20 Meeting." Apparently these leaders, including the head of the IMF (which is ironic because the IMF's first job at its inception was fostering stability), are dissatisfied with everything from employment to inflation to structural overhauls, whatever that might mean in terms of government spending on something. Whatever form, the idea was that there needs to be "mass" monetarism in 2015.
New York Times | How Mortgage Fraud Made the Financial Crisis Worse
The financial crisis was caused in part by widespread fraud, which may seem like an obvious point. But it remains surprisingly controversial.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Winter Snow Weighs on First-Quarter GDP
Brace for blizzards and other bad weather to hit the economy again this winter, though perhaps not as deeply as last year.
Market Watch | U.S. import prices sink 2.8% in January on lower oil costs
The prices the U.S. paid for imported goods fell sharply again in January mainly because of much cheaper oil, a trend that's keeping inflation under wraps.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | Economists See Cheap Oil Weighing on Capital Investment
Low oil prices will continue benefiting consumers and the broader U.S. economy this year, but economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are forming a clearer picture of one downside from cheap oil: slower business investment that offsets a slice of the economic gains.
Forbes | This Economy Is Yearning For The Policy Mix
The economy appears to be improving, at long last seven years into the recovery from the Great Recession. Jobs are being added at the Ronald Reagan-era average, even if the population is a quarter larger than in the 1980s. Job openings are cracking above the pre-Great Recession level. And the doughty old blunderbuss statistic, Gross Domestic Product, is inching ever closer to 3 percent.
Real Clear Markets | Modern Economics Is Based On Desperate Misconceptions
I think the Wall Street Journal said it best, with the headline of its article on the latest G-20 conclave shouting, "Currency Warriors Get a Boost at G-20 Meeting." Apparently these leaders, including the head of the IMF (which is ironic because the IMF's first job at its inception was fostering stability), are dissatisfied with everything from employment to inflation to structural overhauls, whatever that might mean in terms of government spending on something. Whatever form, the idea was that there needs to be "mass" monetarism in 2015.
New York Times | How Mortgage Fraud Made the Financial Crisis Worse
The financial crisis was caused in part by widespread fraud, which may seem like an obvious point. But it remains surprisingly controversial.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Winter Snow Weighs on First-Quarter GDP
Brace for blizzards and other bad weather to hit the economy again this winter, though perhaps not as deeply as last year.
Health Care
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | Three ways Obamacare must finish the job
With Obamacare’s second open-enrollment season ending this weekend, the giant law’s Job 1 — expanding health-care access — is all but done. The nation’s uninsured rate had been cut by a quarter through December, and will fall more by Sunday. Nearly three-fifths of the 11-point drop in the percentage of Americans without health insurance that the Congressional Budget Office predicted would happen by 2019 is done. And Florida and Texas haven’t expanded Medicaid eligibility under the law yet.
Forbes | Medicare's Biggest Little Secret: Seniors Can Have A Medical Savings Account
When I first became eligible for Medicare I went through the Pennsylvania version of the booklet “Medicare & You,” looking for the Medicare Advantage plan that would be the best choice for me. This is an annual autumn ritual for anyone who wants a private “Medicare Advantage” plan. This year in Pennsylvania there were 19 pages in all, describing 129 different plans, with brief descriptions of each.
Market Watch | Three ways Obamacare must finish the job
With Obamacare’s second open-enrollment season ending this weekend, the giant law’s Job 1 — expanding health-care access — is all but done. The nation’s uninsured rate had been cut by a quarter through December, and will fall more by Sunday. Nearly three-fifths of the 11-point drop in the percentage of Americans without health insurance that the Congressional Budget Office predicted would happen by 2019 is done. And Florida and Texas haven’t expanded Medicaid eligibility under the law yet.
Forbes | Medicare's Biggest Little Secret: Seniors Can Have A Medical Savings Account
When I first became eligible for Medicare I went through the Pennsylvania version of the booklet “Medicare & You,” looking for the Medicare Advantage plan that would be the best choice for me. This is an annual autumn ritual for anyone who wants a private “Medicare Advantage” plan. This year in Pennsylvania there were 19 pages in all, describing 129 different plans, with brief descriptions of each.
Monetary
News
Market Watch | Fed will pause rate hikes at end of year, top forecaster says
The Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates this summer as wage growth accelerates, but will likely pause for quite a while after pushing rates up to about 1%, the winner of the Forecaster of the Month award for January says.
Market Watch | Fed will pause rate hikes at end of year, top forecaster says
The Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates this summer as wage growth accelerates, but will likely pause for quite a while after pushing rates up to about 1%, the winner of the Forecaster of the Month award for January says.
Taxes
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | Student Loan Forgiveness Could Be Expensive Education For Taxpayers
Student loan debt has become a major economic policy issue in the country. Total student loan debt has been climbing sharply over the last decade and has now reached about $1.3 trillion. This has been deemed a crisis by many and has spurred numerous calls for student loan forgiveness, government subsidized loan interest rates, and other actions designed to lift the supposedly heavy burden from all these poor students’ shoulders. Student loan debt has even been blamed for the slow housing recovery and a slowdown in car sales. Yet the real problem with student loan debt at the moment is that taxpayers just got stuck with a $22 billion bill for expected non-payment of student loans.
Forbes | Student Loan Forgiveness Could Be Expensive Education For Taxpayers
Student loan debt has become a major economic policy issue in the country. Total student loan debt has been climbing sharply over the last decade and has now reached about $1.3 trillion. This has been deemed a crisis by many and has spurred numerous calls for student loan forgiveness, government subsidized loan interest rates, and other actions designed to lift the supposedly heavy burden from all these poor students’ shoulders. Student loan debt has even been blamed for the slow housing recovery and a slowdown in car sales. Yet the real problem with student loan debt at the moment is that taxpayers just got stuck with a $22 billion bill for expected non-payment of student loans.
Employment
Econ Comments & Analysis
Bloomberg Business | Finally, Good News for Workers at the Bottom
It’s taken too long, but the U.S. economic expansion is finally benefiting people at the bottom of the ladder. Consider these stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January jobs report: Employment of people without a high school degree rose 6 percent over the past year. Employment of black teens rose 18 percent. Employment of the disabled rose 20 percent.
Forbes | Unemployment Is Dropping, Thanks To A Republican Policy That Obama Opposed
In January, in his annual State of the Union address, President Obama bragged that “our economy is growing and creating jobs at the fastest pace since 1999.” It’s great news, to be sure. But according to a new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recent improvement in the labor market may be due to a policy change that Obama adamantly opposed: ending extended unemployment benefits.
Bloomberg Business | Finally, Good News for Workers at the Bottom
It’s taken too long, but the U.S. economic expansion is finally benefiting people at the bottom of the ladder. Consider these stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January jobs report: Employment of people without a high school degree rose 6 percent over the past year. Employment of black teens rose 18 percent. Employment of the disabled rose 20 percent.
Forbes | Unemployment Is Dropping, Thanks To A Republican Policy That Obama Opposed
In January, in his annual State of the Union address, President Obama bragged that “our economy is growing and creating jobs at the fastest pace since 1999.” It’s great news, to be sure. But according to a new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recent improvement in the labor market may be due to a policy change that Obama adamantly opposed: ending extended unemployment benefits.
Budget
Econ Comments & Analysis
Fox Business | Federal Government’s ‘Hall of Shame’
Every two years, before Congress is set to begin its session, the Government Accountability Office releases a list of the federal programs most at risk of fraud, waste, abuse and mismanagement. The GAO, a Congressional watchdog agency, is charged with monitoring the effectiveness of the federal government, whose programs it says cost U.S. taxpayers $3.5 trillion in fiscal outlays.
Mercatus | In Washington, 'Austerity' Is a 67% Budget Increase
It is lamentation season for the few financial regulatory agencies that do not have carte-blanche authority to set their own budgets. The annual ritual should include a mandatory listen to the Rolling Stones: "You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometime, you just might find, you get what you need." Adding to the existing list of questionable interpretations of the song, financial regulators should hear a comforting message in those lyrics: you may not get the budget you ask for, but-with a little more effort on your part to spend carefully-you might just find that the budget you get is big enough to do your job.
Mercatus | President Obama's Fiscal Year 2016 Budget: Tax and Spend
President Obama’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2016 envisions the federal government collecting and spending an increasing amount of taxpayer money over the next ten years. For the upcoming fiscal year, the president expects to spend a tick under $4 trillion while hoping to collect revenues worth $3.525 trillion. The resulting deficit of $475 billion in 2016 would be smaller than the projected deficit for fiscal 2015, but deficits would soon begin to climb again under the president’s policies.
Fox Business | Federal Government’s ‘Hall of Shame’
Every two years, before Congress is set to begin its session, the Government Accountability Office releases a list of the federal programs most at risk of fraud, waste, abuse and mismanagement. The GAO, a Congressional watchdog agency, is charged with monitoring the effectiveness of the federal government, whose programs it says cost U.S. taxpayers $3.5 trillion in fiscal outlays.
Mercatus | In Washington, 'Austerity' Is a 67% Budget Increase
It is lamentation season for the few financial regulatory agencies that do not have carte-blanche authority to set their own budgets. The annual ritual should include a mandatory listen to the Rolling Stones: "You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometime, you just might find, you get what you need." Adding to the existing list of questionable interpretations of the song, financial regulators should hear a comforting message in those lyrics: you may not get the budget you ask for, but-with a little more effort on your part to spend carefully-you might just find that the budget you get is big enough to do your job.
Mercatus | President Obama's Fiscal Year 2016 Budget: Tax and Spend
President Obama’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2016 envisions the federal government collecting and spending an increasing amount of taxpayer money over the next ten years. For the upcoming fiscal year, the president expects to spend a tick under $4 trillion while hoping to collect revenues worth $3.525 trillion. The resulting deficit of $475 billion in 2016 would be smaller than the projected deficit for fiscal 2015, but deficits would soon begin to climb again under the president’s policies.
Thursday, February 12, 2015
General Economics
News
Market Watch | Business inventories edge up 0.1% in December
Business inventories edged up 0.1% in December, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
Market Watch | Retail sales slump again, as Americans pocket savings at pump
Retail sales fell in January for the second month in a row as drivers spent a lot less on gasoline and didn’t appear to use that savings elsewhere.
Econ Comments & Analysis
OilPrice.com | Why We Won’t See An Oil Price Rebound Yet
The February 10 IEA Oil Market Report states that some “market participants are seeing light at the end of the tunnel” based on oil company spending cuts. It goes on to mention that over-supply could become as bad as in 1998 when oil prices plunged to almost $11 per barrel.
Real Clear Markets | The (Market) Price of Bad Behavior
To many, the mention of business leaders and Wall Street executives conjures images of corporate greed by day and wild parties by night. Indiscretions do make splashy headlines and generate public outrage. But bad behavior by top businessmen and women in free market systems has larger repercussions than embarrassment and personal stress.
New Jersey Insitute of Technology | Too Big To Fail
According to the old joke, an 800-pound gorilla sleeps anywhere it wants to. When it comes to the expansion of Too Big To Fail institutions in this country, we now have more than one 800-pound gorilla in the room, and all of them have been gaining weight rapidly since 2007. - See more at: http://mba.online.njit.edu/resources/infographics/too-big-to-fail/#sthash.kwU4hpW5.dpuf
Market Watch | U.S. launches new trade challenge against China
The U.S. opened a new front in a long string of trade disputes with China, challenging a broad program Beijing uses to subsidize export businesses.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Retail Sales Mystery: Where Are Americans’ Gas Savings Going?
Americans saved at the pump last month as gasoline prices fell to levels last seen in 2009. But where did that money go?
Market Watch | Business inventories edge up 0.1% in December
Business inventories edged up 0.1% in December, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
Market Watch | Retail sales slump again, as Americans pocket savings at pump
Retail sales fell in January for the second month in a row as drivers spent a lot less on gasoline and didn’t appear to use that savings elsewhere.
Econ Comments & Analysis
OilPrice.com | Why We Won’t See An Oil Price Rebound Yet
The February 10 IEA Oil Market Report states that some “market participants are seeing light at the end of the tunnel” based on oil company spending cuts. It goes on to mention that over-supply could become as bad as in 1998 when oil prices plunged to almost $11 per barrel.
Real Clear Markets | The (Market) Price of Bad Behavior
To many, the mention of business leaders and Wall Street executives conjures images of corporate greed by day and wild parties by night. Indiscretions do make splashy headlines and generate public outrage. But bad behavior by top businessmen and women in free market systems has larger repercussions than embarrassment and personal stress.
New Jersey Insitute of Technology | Too Big To Fail
According to the old joke, an 800-pound gorilla sleeps anywhere it wants to. When it comes to the expansion of Too Big To Fail institutions in this country, we now have more than one 800-pound gorilla in the room, and all of them have been gaining weight rapidly since 2007. - See more at: http://mba.online.njit.edu/resources/infographics/too-big-to-fail/#sthash.kwU4hpW5.dpuf
Market Watch | U.S. launches new trade challenge against China
The U.S. opened a new front in a long string of trade disputes with China, challenging a broad program Beijing uses to subsidize export businesses.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Retail Sales Mystery: Where Are Americans’ Gas Savings Going?
Americans saved at the pump last month as gasoline prices fell to levels last seen in 2009. But where did that money go?
Health Care
Econ Comments & Analysis
CNN Money | You'll pay a lot more to see the doctor with Obamacare
Obamacare enrollees have to shell out a lot more to see the doctor or get medications than their peers with job-based health insurance.
CNN Money | You'll pay a lot more to see the doctor with Obamacare
Obamacare enrollees have to shell out a lot more to see the doctor or get medications than their peers with job-based health insurance.
Monetary
News
Wall Street Journal | A Fed Insider Calls for Reform
Richard Fisher, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, believes “there’s too much power concentrated in the New York Fed.” And that goes as well for the Fed’s Washington headquarters. He’s calling for voting power at the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates, to be reallocated to recognize the rising population and economic power of the South and the West.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Pimco | The International Ramifications of ECB QE
Beginning in March 2015, the ECB will purchase €60 billion worth of bonds per month until September 2016, implying a total of €1.14 trillion in asset purchases across eurozone government and agency bonds, covered bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS).
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Grand Central: More Disturbing Findings Emerge on U.S. Productivity Path
San Francisco Fed researcher John Fernald is producing disturbing results in research on the path of U.S. productivity growth.
Wall Street Journal | A Fed Insider Calls for Reform
Richard Fisher, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, believes “there’s too much power concentrated in the New York Fed.” And that goes as well for the Fed’s Washington headquarters. He’s calling for voting power at the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates, to be reallocated to recognize the rising population and economic power of the South and the West.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Pimco | The International Ramifications of ECB QE
Beginning in March 2015, the ECB will purchase €60 billion worth of bonds per month until September 2016, implying a total of €1.14 trillion in asset purchases across eurozone government and agency bonds, covered bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS).
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Grand Central: More Disturbing Findings Emerge on U.S. Productivity Path
San Francisco Fed researcher John Fernald is producing disturbing results in research on the path of U.S. productivity growth.
Taxes
News
Market Watch | Individual tax receipts hint at higher wages
The federal government’s receipts of individual income taxes and payroll taxes are running ahead of where they were a year ago, the Treasury Department said Wednesday in its monthly budget statement.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | Tax-Subsidy Programs Fuel Budget Deficits
Michigan’s corporate-tax incentives helped jump-start the state’s lagging economy, officials say, but now those same curative measures are hurting the state’s budget.
Market Watch | Individual tax receipts hint at higher wages
The federal government’s receipts of individual income taxes and payroll taxes are running ahead of where they were a year ago, the Treasury Department said Wednesday in its monthly budget statement.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | Tax-Subsidy Programs Fuel Budget Deficits
Michigan’s corporate-tax incentives helped jump-start the state’s lagging economy, officials say, but now those same curative measures are hurting the state’s budget.
Employment
News
Market Watch | Jobless claims rise sharply, top 300,000 again
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits topped the 300,000 mark in early February for the fourth time in the past six weeks, a sign that the pace of layoffs is starting to level off after an extended decline.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Post | The decline of American entrepreneurship — in five charts
By many accounts, the American economy is roaring back. Hiring is accelerating, wages are rising and the labor force is growing. Confidence among business leaders regarding the year ahead is on the rise, too.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Great Recession Didn’t Cause U.S. Productivity Slowdown
The deep U.S. recession of 2007-2009 caused lasting damage to many areas of the U.S. economy. Worker productivity growth, however, is not one of them, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Market Watch | Jobless claims rise sharply, top 300,000 again
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits topped the 300,000 mark in early February for the fourth time in the past six weeks, a sign that the pace of layoffs is starting to level off after an extended decline.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Post | The decline of American entrepreneurship — in five charts
By many accounts, the American economy is roaring back. Hiring is accelerating, wages are rising and the labor force is growing. Confidence among business leaders regarding the year ahead is on the rise, too.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | Great Recession Didn’t Cause U.S. Productivity Slowdown
The deep U.S. recession of 2007-2009 caused lasting damage to many areas of the U.S. economy. Worker productivity growth, however, is not one of them, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Budget
News
Market Watch | U.S. January budget deficit widens to $18 billion
The federal government ran a budget deficit of $18 billion in January, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday. The monthly deficit compares to the $10 billion shortfall the government ran in January 2014, and brings the deficit for the fiscal year to date to $194 billion.
Market Watch | U.S. January budget deficit widens to $18 billion
The federal government ran a budget deficit of $18 billion in January, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday. The monthly deficit compares to the $10 billion shortfall the government ran in January 2014, and brings the deficit for the fiscal year to date to $194 billion.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
General Economics
Econ Comments & Analysis
Bloomberg View | Meet Greece Halfway, Europe
Tonight Greece's new finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, is scheduled to make a proposal to his European Union counterparts. The importance of this negotiation would be hard to exaggerate: At stake is the future of the euro system.
Forbes | Will Europe Drag Down The World?
While Greece is dominating the headlines, two other recent pieces of news underscore why the EU is in a serious economic and political crisis that could have devastating consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world.
Bloomberg View | Meet Greece Halfway, Europe
Tonight Greece's new finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, is scheduled to make a proposal to his European Union counterparts. The importance of this negotiation would be hard to exaggerate: At stake is the future of the euro system.
Forbes | Will Europe Drag Down The World?
While Greece is dominating the headlines, two other recent pieces of news underscore why the EU is in a serious economic and political crisis that could have devastating consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world.
Monetary
News
Market Watch | A look at what’s behind the ‘Audit the Fed’ battle
Calls to “audit the Fed” have returned to the spotlight with a vengeance after Sen. Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, introduced the bill last month and made it the centerpiece of a presidential campaign stop in Iowa.
Market Watch | A look at what’s behind the ‘Audit the Fed’ battle
Calls to “audit the Fed” have returned to the spotlight with a vengeance after Sen. Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, introduced the bill last month and made it the centerpiece of a presidential campaign stop in Iowa.
Taxes
News
Market Watch | Number of tax refunds nearly doubles compared to last year
It’s early in the 2015 tax season but Americans are already getting refunds — lots of them.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | The Real Reason That US Corporate Income Tax Receipts Are Falling
It’s a fairly common complaint over in certain corners of the left that that the US just isn’t taxing corporate profits enough. The share of GDP that is collected by the corporate income tax has fallen and this is all the proof anyone needs that we really just should be taxing profits more highly.
Market Watch | Number of tax refunds nearly doubles compared to last year
It’s early in the 2015 tax season but Americans are already getting refunds — lots of them.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | The Real Reason That US Corporate Income Tax Receipts Are Falling
It’s a fairly common complaint over in certain corners of the left that that the US just isn’t taxing corporate profits enough. The share of GDP that is collected by the corporate income tax has fallen and this is all the proof anyone needs that we really just should be taxing profits more highly.
Employment
News
Market Watch | U.S. job openings hit highest level since 2001
Job openings in the U.S. rose in December to the highest amount since 2001 and the pace of hiring returned to prerecession levels, but companies are still taking their time before adding new workers.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | The big lie about jobs
For the past six years of the Obama economy, I've been telling readers that the administration has been juggling its job data to make the unemployment rates look much lower than they really are.
National Review | There’s No Such Thing as the ‘Real Unemployment Rate’
The CEO of one of the world’s most prominent polling and analysis firms, Jim Clifton of Gallup,wrote a bombshell column last week: The unemployment rate reported by the federal government and widely cited by the media is “a Big Lie.”
Market Watch | U.S. job openings hit highest level since 2001
Job openings in the U.S. rose in December to the highest amount since 2001 and the pace of hiring returned to prerecession levels, but companies are still taking their time before adding new workers.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Times | The big lie about jobs
For the past six years of the Obama economy, I've been telling readers that the administration has been juggling its job data to make the unemployment rates look much lower than they really are.
National Review | There’s No Such Thing as the ‘Real Unemployment Rate’
The CEO of one of the world’s most prominent polling and analysis firms, Jim Clifton of Gallup,wrote a bombshell column last week: The unemployment rate reported by the federal government and widely cited by the media is “a Big Lie.”
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
General Economics
News
Market Watch | U.S. job openings hit highest level since 2001
Job openings in the U.S. rose 3.7% to 5.03 million in December - the highest since 2001 - and the number of people hired climbed 1.9% to 5.05 milllion.
Market Watch | Small-business sentiment slips in January, NFIB says
Small-business sentiment slipped in January on a decline in optimism over sales growth and business conditions, according to a gauge released Tuesday.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Reuters | Greek euro exit will be hard to stop
Alexis Tsipras kept his promises to the electorate. That’s the only thing that can be said in favour of the defiant speech the Greek prime minister gave parliament on Feb. 8. Almost everything else was terrible – because the pledges he made in the recent election campaign are undeliverable.
Market Watch | Americans are spending their gas savings on more gas
So, what are Americans doing with some of the money they’re saving from cheap gas? They are buying more fuel.
Investors.com | Studies Confirm Dodd-Frank Strangling Small Lenders
New studies of banking trends confirm earlier warnings that the Dodd-Frank Act would drive community banks out of the market and choke off credit.
Wall Street Journal | U.S. Government Bonds Fall Again
Treasury bond prices fell for a fifth straight session, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to a one-month high on Monday, as looming new debt sales outweighed market turmoil in Greece and slowing growth in China.
Blogs
AEI | 2014 US-China trade by the numbers
The US ran a record $342 billion merchandise trade deficit with China in 2014. The deficit rose 7.6%, with a 6% increase in American imports and just a 1.7 % increase in American exports. Driving these figures are a comparatively strongerAmerican economy, and also Chinese trade barriers. Imports from China benefit American consumers but the poor performance of American exports is a warning sign.
Market Watch | U.S. job openings hit highest level since 2001
Job openings in the U.S. rose 3.7% to 5.03 million in December - the highest since 2001 - and the number of people hired climbed 1.9% to 5.05 milllion.
Market Watch | Small-business sentiment slips in January, NFIB says
Small-business sentiment slipped in January on a decline in optimism over sales growth and business conditions, according to a gauge released Tuesday.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Reuters | Greek euro exit will be hard to stop
Alexis Tsipras kept his promises to the electorate. That’s the only thing that can be said in favour of the defiant speech the Greek prime minister gave parliament on Feb. 8. Almost everything else was terrible – because the pledges he made in the recent election campaign are undeliverable.
Market Watch | Americans are spending their gas savings on more gas
So, what are Americans doing with some of the money they’re saving from cheap gas? They are buying more fuel.
Investors.com | Studies Confirm Dodd-Frank Strangling Small Lenders
New studies of banking trends confirm earlier warnings that the Dodd-Frank Act would drive community banks out of the market and choke off credit.
Wall Street Journal | U.S. Government Bonds Fall Again
Treasury bond prices fell for a fifth straight session, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to a one-month high on Monday, as looming new debt sales outweighed market turmoil in Greece and slowing growth in China.
Blogs
AEI | 2014 US-China trade by the numbers
The US ran a record $342 billion merchandise trade deficit with China in 2014. The deficit rose 7.6%, with a 6% increase in American imports and just a 1.7 % increase in American exports. Driving these figures are a comparatively strongerAmerican economy, and also Chinese trade barriers. Imports from China benefit American consumers but the poor performance of American exports is a warning sign.
Monetary
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | Fed is between rock and hard place
Between rising employment, excess liquidity, the strong dollar and low inflation the Federal Reserve doesn’t know which way to jump.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | When Is It Time for Mindful Austerity?
In his budget, President Barack Obama called for an end to “mindless austerity.” That begs the question: If mindless austerity is to be avoided, will there ever be a time for mindful austerity?
Market Watch | Fed is between rock and hard place
Between rising employment, excess liquidity, the strong dollar and low inflation the Federal Reserve doesn’t know which way to jump.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | When Is It Time for Mindful Austerity?
In his budget, President Barack Obama called for an end to “mindless austerity.” That begs the question: If mindless austerity is to be avoided, will there ever be a time for mindful austerity?
Taxes
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | Tax Subsidies May Not Help Start-Ups as Much as Lawmakers Think
Many tax subsidies help new businesses, especially those financed with borrowed money and organized to avoid the corporate income tax .
Forbes | Tax Subsidies May Not Help Start-Ups as Much as Lawmakers Think
Many tax subsidies help new businesses, especially those financed with borrowed money and organized to avoid the corporate income tax .
Employment
Blogs
AEI | Citi on the economy, workers, and robots: ‘This time is different’
In the world of manufacturing, the majority of automation to date has been viewed as something that helped get the job done more efficiently. The Industrial Revolution created vast employment for low-skilled workers with the adoption of the assembly line and workers adapted by making their skills complementary to the arrival of new technologies.
AEI | Citi on the economy, workers, and robots: ‘This time is different’
In the world of manufacturing, the majority of automation to date has been viewed as something that helped get the job done more efficiently. The Industrial Revolution created vast employment for low-skilled workers with the adoption of the assembly line and workers adapted by making their skills complementary to the arrival of new technologies.
Monday, February 9, 2015
General Economics
Econ Comments & Analysis
Market Watch | The big question: When, or if, the spending rush will come
There are more jobs now, for more money, than any time since the recession ended in mid-2009. Gas prices are at a six-year low, while the stock market is near near an all-time high.
Wall Street Journal | Essential Elements to a G-20 Growth Plan
Over the past few years, our two governments have worked to fuel economic growth, create jobs and improve living standards. Our economies are now growing solidly.
Real Clear Markets | Putting U.S. Manufacturing Growth In Perspective
Over the last few years, the U.S. manufacturing sector has been lauded by the media as a primary driver of the nation's recovery from the Great Recession. And since 2010, the manufacturing sector has been a positive contributor to both new job creation and the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). But its economic and employment impacts have been, in the context of recent economic history, less than the national media coverage justifies.
Market Watch | The big question: When, or if, the spending rush will come
There are more jobs now, for more money, than any time since the recession ended in mid-2009. Gas prices are at a six-year low, while the stock market is near near an all-time high.
Wall Street Journal | Essential Elements to a G-20 Growth Plan
Over the past few years, our two governments have worked to fuel economic growth, create jobs and improve living standards. Our economies are now growing solidly.
Real Clear Markets | Putting U.S. Manufacturing Growth In Perspective
Over the last few years, the U.S. manufacturing sector has been lauded by the media as a primary driver of the nation's recovery from the Great Recession. And since 2010, the manufacturing sector has been a positive contributor to both new job creation and the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). But its economic and employment impacts have been, in the context of recent economic history, less than the national media coverage justifies.
Health Care
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | Buried In The Numbers: Obamacare's Costs Are Climbing, Not Receding
Late last month, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the provisions within Obamacare expanding access to insurance coverage would cost 20% less than the agency estimated in 2010, when the law passed.
Forbes | Buried In The Numbers: Obamacare's Costs Are Climbing, Not Receding
Late last month, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the provisions within Obamacare expanding access to insurance coverage would cost 20% less than the agency estimated in 2010, when the law passed.
Monetary
Econ Comments & Analysis
Washington Post | Now’s not the time to raise interest rates
I cannot recall a moment when the gap between what markets expect the Federal Reserve to do and what the Fed itself has forecast it will do has been as large as it is now. Markets predict that the Fed will raise interest rates only to 1.6 percent by the end of 2017; the Federal Open Market Committee’s average forecast is 3.5 percent.
Market Watch | More jobs means more problems for the Fed
The longer you spend with January’s employment report — released Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS — the more you will like it. But just how long that good feeling will last depends on the Federal Reserve.
Forbes | The Fed is Nervous, and Maybe That's a Good Thing
The club of U.S. central bankers appears jittery, but it’s not because of interest rates, unemployment, or mortgage-backed securities. It’s because of Congress.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | ‘Audit the Fed’ Bill’s Prospects Unclear
An effort to expand congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve‘s interest-rate decisions is generating buzz on the presidential campaign trail and in Washington, but its prospects on Capitol Hill remain uncertain.
Washington Post | Now’s not the time to raise interest rates
I cannot recall a moment when the gap between what markets expect the Federal Reserve to do and what the Fed itself has forecast it will do has been as large as it is now. Markets predict that the Fed will raise interest rates only to 1.6 percent by the end of 2017; the Federal Open Market Committee’s average forecast is 3.5 percent.
Market Watch | More jobs means more problems for the Fed
The longer you spend with January’s employment report — released Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS — the more you will like it. But just how long that good feeling will last depends on the Federal Reserve.
Forbes | The Fed is Nervous, and Maybe That's a Good Thing
The club of U.S. central bankers appears jittery, but it’s not because of interest rates, unemployment, or mortgage-backed securities. It’s because of Congress.
Blogs
Wall Street Journal | ‘Audit the Fed’ Bill’s Prospects Unclear
An effort to expand congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve‘s interest-rate decisions is generating buzz on the presidential campaign trail and in Washington, but its prospects on Capitol Hill remain uncertain.
Taxes
News
Market Watch | Obama: Higher capital gains taxes wouldn’t hurt Corporate America
Higher capital gains taxes on wealthy Americans would help working moms — and wouldn’t hurt Corporate America, according to President Barack Obama.
Market Watch | Obama: Higher capital gains taxes wouldn’t hurt Corporate America
Higher capital gains taxes on wealthy Americans would help working moms — and wouldn’t hurt Corporate America, according to President Barack Obama.
Employment
News
Wall Street Journal | Job Market Looks Ripe for Liftoff
The best three-month stretch of hiring since 1997 has positioned the U.S. labor market to start delivering stronger wage growth for a wider swath of Americans after more than five years of sluggish recovery from a deep recession.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | The 'Real Unemployment Rate' Vs. The Spin: Where's The News Here?
Let me begin with this disclaimer: we pollsters are not a gracious lot. Picture a faculty review committee discussing merit pay or tenure. We are competitive, sanctimonious, and altogether not a very nice bunch of people. With that said, I am compelled to comment on the recent statements by Jim Clifton, longtime CEO of Gallup, on the “real unemployment rate.” In short, Clifton penned an op-ed on the company website referring to the “big lie” of the official Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly unemployment rate. The 5.7% rate for January he says is woefully inadequate and does not take into account part-time workers, those earning $20 a week, those underemployed, and the hundreds of thousands of others who have simply given up looking for work. The real unemployment is much larger – at least double the official rate, and probably higher.
Wall Street Journal | Job Market Looks Ripe for Liftoff
The best three-month stretch of hiring since 1997 has positioned the U.S. labor market to start delivering stronger wage growth for a wider swath of Americans after more than five years of sluggish recovery from a deep recession.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Forbes | The 'Real Unemployment Rate' Vs. The Spin: Where's The News Here?
Let me begin with this disclaimer: we pollsters are not a gracious lot. Picture a faculty review committee discussing merit pay or tenure. We are competitive, sanctimonious, and altogether not a very nice bunch of people. With that said, I am compelled to comment on the recent statements by Jim Clifton, longtime CEO of Gallup, on the “real unemployment rate.” In short, Clifton penned an op-ed on the company website referring to the “big lie” of the official Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly unemployment rate. The 5.7% rate for January he says is woefully inadequate and does not take into account part-time workers, those earning $20 a week, those underemployed, and the hundreds of thousands of others who have simply given up looking for work. The real unemployment is much larger – at least double the official rate, and probably higher.
Budget
Econ Comments & Analysis
Real Clear Markets | Obama's Budget Is All About Whom You Know
A budget shows the priorities of whoever is doing the spending. Your family budget shows how much you value your home, education, religion, philanthropy, travel, clothes, etc. A person can say whatever they want, but your spending shows whether you are just talking or actually walking the walk. President Obama's budget proposal shows the whole country what his priorities are and the answer is that President Obama wants to control everyone's behavior using the federal government as both his carrot and stick.
Real Clear Markets | Obama's Budget Is All About Whom You Know
A budget shows the priorities of whoever is doing the spending. Your family budget shows how much you value your home, education, religion, philanthropy, travel, clothes, etc. A person can say whatever they want, but your spending shows whether you are just talking or actually walking the walk. President Obama's budget proposal shows the whole country what his priorities are and the answer is that President Obama wants to control everyone's behavior using the federal government as both his carrot and stick.
Friday, February 6, 2015
General Economics
News
Market Watch | Average hourly earnings had biggest gain in over six years
Average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% in January to $24.75, the best showing since November 2008, according to Labor Department data released Friday. That took the year-on-year rise to 2.2%. Average weekly earnings also rose 0.5% during the month.
Market Watch | U.S. adds 257,000 jobs as wage gains appear
The U.S. added 257,000 new jobs in January to start off 2015 on a strong note, with evidence emerging that an influx of hiring over the past year may finally be pushing up wages after years of sluggish growth.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | Wobbly Policies Make For a Shaky Economy
We’ve long understood that poorly crafted laws and regulations can inhibit investment and economic growth, but at least investors and business managers can incorporate stable rules into their strategies. There’s another barrier to growth that hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves: the uncertainty created by temporary policy making.
Market Watch | U.S. growth may sputter with productivity and population growth so low
It’s tough to read much in the latest quarterly swings in productivity data, but taken over the last four years, they paint a fairly dismal picture of the potential for growth from the U.S. economy.
Wall Street Journal | Oil Boom a ‘Game-Changer’ on Trade Deficit
Petroleum imports accounted for less than 20% of the nation’s trade deficit last year, down from more than 40% only five years earlier, according to figures for 2014 released Thursday.
Forbes | The Too-Much-Of-A-Good-Thing Economy
You know the old expression “be careful what you wish for — it may actually come true”? Well, somewhere there are a bunch of early-1980s economists who may now be regretting what they wished for 35 years ago.
Market Watch | Average hourly earnings had biggest gain in over six years
Average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% in January to $24.75, the best showing since November 2008, according to Labor Department data released Friday. That took the year-on-year rise to 2.2%. Average weekly earnings also rose 0.5% during the month.
Market Watch | U.S. adds 257,000 jobs as wage gains appear
The U.S. added 257,000 new jobs in January to start off 2015 on a strong note, with evidence emerging that an influx of hiring over the past year may finally be pushing up wages after years of sluggish growth.
Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | Wobbly Policies Make For a Shaky Economy
We’ve long understood that poorly crafted laws and regulations can inhibit investment and economic growth, but at least investors and business managers can incorporate stable rules into their strategies. There’s another barrier to growth that hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves: the uncertainty created by temporary policy making.
Market Watch | U.S. growth may sputter with productivity and population growth so low
It’s tough to read much in the latest quarterly swings in productivity data, but taken over the last four years, they paint a fairly dismal picture of the potential for growth from the U.S. economy.
Wall Street Journal | Oil Boom a ‘Game-Changer’ on Trade Deficit
Petroleum imports accounted for less than 20% of the nation’s trade deficit last year, down from more than 40% only five years earlier, according to figures for 2014 released Thursday.
Forbes | The Too-Much-Of-A-Good-Thing Economy
You know the old expression “be careful what you wish for — it may actually come true”? Well, somewhere there are a bunch of early-1980s economists who may now be regretting what they wished for 35 years ago.
Health Care
Econ Comments & Analysis
Wall Street Journal | How Not to Bungle an ObamaCare Opening
Republican congressional leaders were wise to propose an alternative to the Affordable Care Act this week, as the Supreme Court may strike down a key provision of the law after hearing King v. Burwell next month. The case involves subsidies to individuals who purchase health insurance on federal exchanges.
Forbes | Personalized Medicine: Government Is The Problem, Not The Solution
In his new budget President Obama is calling for a federal investment in “personalized medicine.” If that doesn’t strike you as an incredible public policy U-turn, you haven’t been paying attention.
Wall Street Journal | How Not to Bungle an ObamaCare Opening
Republican congressional leaders were wise to propose an alternative to the Affordable Care Act this week, as the Supreme Court may strike down a key provision of the law after hearing King v. Burwell next month. The case involves subsidies to individuals who purchase health insurance on federal exchanges.
Forbes | Personalized Medicine: Government Is The Problem, Not The Solution
In his new budget President Obama is calling for a federal investment in “personalized medicine.” If that doesn’t strike you as an incredible public policy U-turn, you haven’t been paying attention.
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